My Esteemed Brother and Friend--Thompson Ayodele:
Thanks for sharing this well written and thoughtful editorial on the issues of birth control
in Nigeria. While I agree with many of the ideas explored in the editorial,
I do have some problems with many of the concluding statements.
I will be honored to write a full rebuttal--one in support of the position of the
federal government of Nigeria if the editorial board of the Guardian would
consider publishing it.
I will in the interest of time now simply highlight a few of the areas in which I disagree
with the editorial:
1) "Birth Control is a misnomer in this regard;
. The issue is not about BIRTH CONTROL, rather it is about Sustainable Population Planning.
The operative word is Balance not Control.
2) The issue is not about the government promulgating a law that dictates how many children a married couple can have; it is about educating them so they would make informed choices.
The government has no role in the bedrooms of the nation!
3) Sustainable Population Management is not about reducing the rate of growth of the population; rather it is about ensuring that population growth does not outstrip the rate of growth of the economy
or falls below the rate of growth that is needed for a robust economy now and well into the future.
4) While the editorial emphasizes the benefits of a large population and the disadvanages of smaller population, it fails to explore the serious disadvantages that a rapidly growing population--
that outstrips the ability and capacity of families, society and governments at all levels to care for
the population--at both ends of the spectrum --i.e. the youths and elderly as well as those in between.
5) The argument for sustainable population management is not anchored on whether or not there are enough acreage of land to farm, convert into factories and other commercial use or into dwellings--rather it is anchored on the ability of individuals, families, communities and government to leverage such resources for the advancement of society.
6) A large uneducated and unhealthy population is just as much an albatross to human development as is a dwindling population.
7) There are numerous academic studies both from the right and left of the political spectrum and from
different regions of the world attesting to the fact the most effective developmental programs throughout the
world is the education of the girls--which a reduces the incidence of child marriages, infant and maternal mortalitywhilst also reducing the facility rates.
9) Comparative studies of the factors leading to underdevelopment of nations throughout the world has shown
that Over Population far outstrips all other commonly assessed factors including,
Corruption, Religious Beliefs, Forms of Governance (e.g. democratic vs non
democratic) Economic system--capitalist,communist/socialist or a mixed system, Secular or non Secular, Natural Resources, Climate, Geographical location, Heredity and Race..
10) Excessive population growth erodes societal values----as age old societal values become unsustainable with
time. An example in this regard is the extended care family system in which most of todays adult Nigerians over 40 years old
were raised. Even though the will to help care for the children of one's siblings remains, this wish becomes increasingly unatainable
as the indidvidual families find it difficult to help others, when they are just barely able or are having difficultuiies with raising theirt own children in difficult economic times..
11) Unsustainable population growth results from lack of planning; this ends up in a situation where poorer nations have millions of
uneducated, barely educated and even educated young people between the ages of 18 to 25 roaming the streets with nothing to do
due to lack of jobs. The devil has a job for every idele hand. Masisve unmeployent is one of the major causes of increasing crime
rates in Nigeria.
As I wrote earlier, time does not permit me to further explore in detail many of the ideas expressed above and many more.
I will conclude these ideas later or in a full fledged counter editorial..
Best wishes to madam and the family!
Bye,
Ols
-----Original Message-----
From: Thompson Ayodele <thompson@ippanigeria.org>
To: olakassimMD <olakassimMD@aol.com>
Sent: Mon, Jul 9, 2012 4:44 pm
Subject: Birth control undermines Nigeria's selling point
From: Thompson Ayodele <thompson@ippanigeria.org>
To: olakassimMD <olakassimMD@aol.com>
Sent: Mon, Jul 9, 2012 4:44 pm
Subject: Birth control undermines Nigeria's selling point
This editorial opinion is published in today;s Guardian. The link to the article is below: '...while the prices of natural resources have been declining, human beings continue to cost more in term of wages despite our numbers.' Birth control undermines Nigeria's selling point http://www.guardiannewsngr.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=91740:ayodele-and-sotola-birth-control-undermines-nigerias-selling-point&catid=38:columnists&Itemid=615 Birth control undermines Nigeria's selling point Monday, 09 July 2012 00:00 By Thompson Ayodele and Olusegun Sotola Opinion - Columnists THE administration of President Goodluck Jonathan wants to make laws that will control population growth in Nigeria. The President said this during the inauguration of the Chairman and Commissioners of the National Population Commission (NPC). According to him the government cannot fold its arms until the country's population becomes uncontrollable. This statement is an offshoot of the wrongly held age long notion that increased population retards economic growth. The mindset is that Nigeria is overpopulated or heading towards overpopulation and if nothing is done to deliberately halt the trend, several economic and social consequences could ensure. One of such imagined consequences is that population will outgrow the resources as we were taught in high school economics. This age-long Malthusian theory is wrong. It is more dangerous for modern day leaders to hold on to such apocalyptic view. The fears that there are too many people in the country are misplaced. Any policy aims to address such imaginary problem will be dangerous. Contrary to this belief, available evidence suggests that policies and programmes that artificially frustrate natural progression in population create demographic problems in the medium to long term, retard overall development and produce hordes of unintended consequences. Available statistics shows that Nigeria population has quadrupled since independence, and despite the maladministration and chronic bad governance over the years, the only impetus for growth is on the account of the population. For instance, bulk of the Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) attracted into the country was occasioned by the market size. According to World Bank data, Foreign Direct Investment has been persistently rising, hovering between $6 billion and $8.5 billion since 2007. The astronomical growth in the telecom and IT phenomenon in Nigeria are essentially driven by market size, which is a function of the population. Small countries are unattractive for investment except when they have natural resources such as oil and gas. This is because the size of the markets is often limited and they suffer from diseconomies of scale. What the proponents of population reduction seem to have glossed over is countries with high population tend to have either military or economic power or both. They tend to have influence in world's affairs. These countries include but not limited to China, United States, India, Malaysia, Brazil, Indonesia and many more. . There are public policy lessons Nigeria could learn from countries that have promulgated law to control birth. For instance, in China there is a high rate of abandonment and infanticide especially of girl child. Available data shows there are 32 million more male than female under the age of 20. Sex selective abortion accounts for almost all the excess. At a point, the ratio of male to female was 130 to 100 creating a gender crisis. Because of the gender crisis created by the one-child policy, the Chinese government has set a five-year policy plan to bridge the male-female ratio to 113:100 by year 2016. Whatever methods of birth control adopted in Nigeria will create bigger crisis. The strong preference for boys and associated gender crisis, which will be fuelled by corruption for people who want to circumvent the law would be the beginning of the consequences. Apart from the effects of state intervention in birth planning, the Nigeria population size does not need any state intervention or injecting tax payers' money. Already birth per thousand is declining. It is now 39.2 per thousand in 2012 down from 43 per thousand in 2008. The population growth rate is now about 2 per cent yearly, down from 3 per cent few years ago. As a matter of fact, the country population is growing at a declining rate. The population increased by over 70 per cent between 1991 and 2008. By a recent estimate, it would increase by 42 per cent by the year 2050. It is pointless to initiate any birth control as a deliberate government policy. The population problem in Nigeria is a bogeyman. Presently, close to 50 per cent of Nigeria population are between the ages of 1 and 15. The youngest of the age range will be about 40 years old in 2050 and will have fewer children compare to their parents. Unbiased analysis of this trend suggests Nigeria population will stagnate around that time. There will be more adult population. The effects of aged population are severe and this explains why it is illogical to deliberately force birth control on Nigerians. Practical examples exist on the implications of aged society. Many developed economies are at present promoting population growth. This is particularly noticeable in some Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries where policy makers have designed policies aimed at arresting the ageing population. In Australia for example, since 2004 the government has enacted a Baby Bonus policy, paying women A$3,000 per child. The campaign since 2004 has been tagged: one baby for your husband, one for your wife and one for the country. This campaign is aimed at encouraging families to have more children. Many other developed countries have also enacted immigration policy aimed at enticing young and able adult into their economy. Julian Simon, in his book, "The Ultimate Resources," emphasises that less people don't actually bring about economic growth. He rhetorically asks: "Why are our ancestors not more prosperous when they were just a few thousands on the planet?" According to Simon, while the prices of natural resources have been declining, human beings continue to cost more in term of wages despite our numbers. The facts show that the more the people, the more the prosperity. This is why it is more likely to see highly creative people in China, India, USA and Nigeria than other smaller countries. Across the world, there are more millionaires in big cities than sparsely populated countryside. Conversely, it may interest us to know that famine and starvation mostly occurred in sparsely populated countries. Considering the challenges faced by investors in Nigeria, the nation's selling point lies in its market size made possible by population. The belief that high population causes problems is not only wrong, it is also dangerous. It is dangerous because it prevents us from seeing human beings as the ultimate resource without which all other resources are useless. It also instils mindset that people are a burden that are incapable of changing their economic conditions without government help. Nigeria does not need any birth control law to be rammed through their throats. The decision on the number of kids a family should have is better made by the individual family. Like Chuang tzu said, good order results spontaneously when things are let alone. • Ayodele and Sotola are with the Initiative for Public Policy Analysis, a public policy think-tank based in Lagos. Thompson Ayodele Director Initiative for Public Policy Analysis P.O.Box 6434 Shomolu,Lagos Nigeria Email:thompson@ippanigeria.org Backup: thompson.ayodele@gmail.com Website: www.ippanigeria.org *****Good Public Policy is Sound Politics********** Tel:01-791-0959 Cell:080 2302 5079
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