USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Real Picture

Obama's once huge Electoral College lead is evaporating very fast, Pennsylvania is not a swing state, Romney has a huge lead with white males whites comprise about 74% of the population), and NYT/CBS polls include those who will not vote.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Wednesday, August 01, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting 47% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

Most voters under 40 prefer Obama while most over 40 support Romney. The gender gap is alive and well. Obama does about 14 points better among women than men. Among white voters, Romney leads 56% to 35%.  Obama has an overwhelming lead among black voters and leads by a two-to-one margin among other minority voters. All of these dynamics are similar to Election 2008.

In Missouri, Romney leads by six. The state is rated Leans Romney in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. The projections  show that Obama is likely to win states with 201 Electoral College Votes while Romney is likely to win in states with 170. Thirteen states with 167 Electoral College Votes are either Toss-Ups or Leaners.