USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fwd: [Mwananchi] Russia to America: We told you so. [ ANALYSIS]

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From: Jupiter Punungwe
Date: Thu, Sep 13, 2012 at 1:17 PM
Subject: Re: [Mwananchi] Russia to America: We told you so.
To: Mwananchi@yahoogroups.com, zimbabwe2@yahoogroups.com, zimsite@yahoogroups.com, padare@yahoogroups.com, munhumutapa@googlegroups.com

 

When the uprisings began against Gadhafi in Benghazi, he strenuously blamed Al Qaeda militants. Now the Americans, and you, are also blaming Al Qaeda militants in very similar circumstances. May I ask, are you therefore saying Gadhafi was right after all?

What do I mean by militarization? At first the protesters and rebels did not have a large amount of weaponry. They got some from military defections (i.e. soldiers who defected into their guns). It is important to note that these weapons from defections did not fall wholesale into the hands of ill-disciplined militants.

Then the West started air-dropping weapons, without knowing exactly who they were supplying. If you ask the Americans, the French and the British to make an inventory of who got the weapons they sent in, they can't because they don't know. Of course the NATO also bombed Gadhafi's military installations prompting those guarding armories to flee. There was a subsequent free for all, which saw the region awash with arms fomenting instability as far afield as Mali. Gadhafi himself handed out weaponry to supporters especially in the last days, trying to arm a popular resistance against Western backed enemies.

The bottom line is that for someone to get a war grade gun in Libya is about as easy as finding yams and kola nuts at a Nigerian produce market. Personally I am an atheist. But suppose I was a religious fanatic in Zimbabwe. I can toyi toyi but I can't do much damage because I don't have a gun. Now imagine if I was in Libya. In a few hours I would have a gun and loose a few angry shots.

That is what I mean by militarization of society breeding instability. In society with a high level of disgruntlement such as one ruled by the same dictator for 42 years, the instability can easily become war. Unfortunately you cannot stab disgruntlement in the chest, display it in a cold room, bury it in the desert and forget about it. Like water it seeps around and soon finds other forms to express itself in.

I am not saying the situation can not be solved. It needs great vision, great fortitude, great magnanimity and a very large dose of wisdom. These are not cheap commodities. They are even far more difficult to get hold of than military power. This is one of the reasons why the world seems to be increasingly lurching from problem to problem. There are lots of people with mountain sized military power and pea brained wisdom.

Jupiter

On 13 September 2012 13:26, <edosomwanlaw@gmail.com> wrote:

Jupiter,

Forgive me for siding with Toyin on this. Your:

" ... 1. Militarising a society always breeds instability .... "

.... may be conceptually reasonable but it wasn't the Americans that militarized the Libyan society but Gaddafi's tyranny and quest for dynasty. Further, ongoing investigations seems to be pointing to the fact that the Stevens assassination was a project of Al Qaida operatives and not a militarized Libyan society. Don't the coincidence relating to the date of September the Eleventh raise your curiosity? It did mine.
Cheers.
CUE

Sent from my BlackBerry wireless device from MTN

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From: Jupiter Punungwe <punungwe@gmail.com>

Sender: Mwananchi@yahoogroups.com

Date: Thu, 13 Sep 2012 13:03:53 +0200

To: <Mwananchi@yahoogroups.com>; <zimbabwe2@yahoogroups.com>; <padare@yahoogroups.com>; <zimsite@yahoogroups.com>; <munhumutapa@googlegroups.com>

ReplyTo: Mwananchi@yahoogroups.com

Subject: Re: [Mwananchi] Russia to America: We told you so.

 

On 13 September 2012 12:39, OLUWATOYIN ADEPOJU <toyinvincentadepoju@gmail.com> wrote:

The Russian perspective is shirt sighted and narrow.

toyin

I beg to differ. It was the original action which was short sighted and narrow. My reasons:-

1. Militarising a society always breeds instability.

2. Negotiation is always preferable to military action.

3. Military uprising is unpredictable. You cannot engineer an outcome you desire.

4. Conflict mostly affects people who just want to live their day to day lives and do not care about either side.

I would have expected you to outline your reasons why you think the Russian position is shortsighted and narrow, rather than just make an unsubstantiated assertion.

Jupiter

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One minister one car is as important as one man one vote.

"...those who do not know how to pursue pleasure rationally encounter consequences that are extremely painful." Cicero, 45 BC

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