"President Obama's probability of winning the Electoral College fell slightly in Friday's FiveThirtyEight forecast, from 83.9 percent to 82.7 percent on Thursday.
Although Friday's polls were a bit more equivocal than on some recent days, the shift mainly came because of a decline in the FiveThirtyEight economic index, which continues to have some influence on the forecast.
A government report on Friday showed a decline in real personal income in August, one of the economic data series that the forecast model uses. Furthermore, the July personal income figures, which had initially looked quite positive, were revised downward to show slower income growth."
- Nate Silver
- Ikhide
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