From the Princeton Election Consortium (P.E.C.): http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/08/romney-inspires-the-faithful/#more-7096
"The effect of the debate is looking quite a lot like another event that energized the Republican base: the addition of Paul Ryan in the VP slot. That rise occurred over about a week, and then Todd Akin shot off his mouth. At that point, the race stayed mostly immobile until the Democratic convention got things moving back toward Obama.
Two bits of evidence suggest that Romney's post-debate gains have come from inspiring partisan voters, as opposed to flipping nonpartisans. First, according to a recent PPP poll in Wisconsin, gains have come in the form of an increased enthusiasm among Republican voters – but not among independents. Second, the RAND survey, which tracks individual sentiment, does not show a massive wave of one-way mind-changing, which is what occurred after the Democratic convention.
If the Romney campaign can keep their supporters fired up, the Meta-Margin should settle where the race has been all season: near Obama +3%. This seems to be a "set point" where this year's dynamics have naturally gravitated.
..."
A description of the P.E.C. from http://spectrum.ieee.org/geek-life/profiles/electoral-college-math
"With the two major U.S. political party conventions in the rearview mirror, Americans are now taking a close look at their quadrennial presidential election. Cable news networks, whose revenues rely on keeping audiences tuned in, have a vested interest in playing up the contest's capriciousness and unpredictability.
But an increasing number of statistically literate poll-aggregation websites, such as FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics and Electoral-Vote.com, reveal how the electorate's choice is anything but. All three got the 2008 result right and predicted the final electoral tally to within 5 percent. And perhaps the most starkly analytical picture of the presidential race appeared on a Princeton neuroscientist's website. A physicist by training who applies his statistical acumen to opinion poll results, Sam Wang's forecast of the 2008 election was off by a single electoral vote. And his 2004 prediction was perfect.
Wang, an associate professor of neuroscience at Princeton, says an undergraduate-level knowledge of statistics and some basic coding skills are the chief prerequisites for being the most accurate presidential-race pundit on the planet. His Princeton Election Consortium, a collaboration with Princeton alum Andrew Ferguson, crunches the numbers collected by the Huffington Post –owned organization Pollster.com, which aggregates a number of poll results."
P.E.C.'s current prediction (10/8/2012)? Obama: 310 Electoral College Votes; Romney 228 Electoral College Votes. 270 Electoral College Votes are required to win.
State-based polls have not shown the wild swings that national polls have; Romney still needs to overcome Obama in several swing states to win. A first debate win isn't sufficient to carry an election or we'd have greeted President Mondale rather than President Reagan. And I believe Obama has been shaken out of any sense of complacency he may have had at the beginning of last week.
On Mon, Oct 8, 2012 at 4:08 PM, Abdul Bangura <theai@earthlink.net> wrote:
So, my Most Favorite Mwalimu, AKB's prediction may not be as farfetched as Obama's disciples had claimed, yes? When you take into consideration the 41 million Tea Party members (31% of those who actually vote) who are now extremely enthusiastic about voting for Romney but are telling the liberal media and the pollsters that they are voting for Obama, is this The Mother of All Elections not living up to its billing? Romney will be our next POTUS come November, 2012!
Pew poll: Romney takes four-point lead among likely voters
By Aaron Blake , Updated: October 8, 2012
Mitt Romney has jumped out to a slight national lead among those likeliest to vote on Nov. 6, according to a new poll from the Pew Research Center.Pew, which in mid-September showed Romney trailing President Obama by eight points, now shows him leading the president by four points among likely voters — the first time Romney has led by that much. The poll has Romney at 49 percent and Obama at 45 percent.Among registered voters, the race is tied at 46 percent after Obama held a nine-point lead last month. The last time Romney broke even with Obama among registered voters in a Pew poll was almost exactly one year ago.The poll is the second survey today to suggest a significant post-debate bounce for Romney. A Gallup tracking poll conducted in the three days after Wednesday's first general election debate showed Romney and Obama tied at 47 percent among registered voters.We're still waiting for more post-debate data, but right now, the limited data we have suggest real movement in Romney's direction.The Pew poll shows Romney's favorable rating rising five points to 45 percent, while Obama's favorable rating dropped seven points to 50 percent. It shows the two men are tied on the question of who is a stronger leader (Obama led 51 percent to 38 percent last month), Romney leading 49-41 on who can improve the jobs situation, and Romney leading 47-43 on the issue of taxes. (All of those numbers are among registered voters.)All three are central questions in the 2012 campaign.As for the debate, the Pew poll echoes Gallup, which found the debate to be a landslide victory for Romney. Both pollsters have 72 percent saying Romney won and 20 percent saying Obama won. Pew polling in 2008, by contrast, showed 67 percent thought Obama won the debates while 22 percent thought Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) did.© The Washington Post Company
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