Saturday, October 6, 2012

USA Africa Dialogue Series - Lesson: If You Are Going To Cook The Books, Do Not Overdo It

Unemployment Drops So Much, Hardly Anyone Believes It

Even CNBC was so incredulous about the September unemployment numbers churned out by the Obama Administration that the first question to Labor Secretary Hilda Solis announcing the story was whether the books had been cooked.

In August, when I wrote about the jobless numbers, I noted that the Associated Press had at the beginning of summer, based on nothing, predicted below-8 percent unemployment before the November election, and I noted that there would have to be some phenomenal massaging of numbers to get Obama there.

Friday, after 44 months of above-8 percent unemployment, and most importantly after Obama's miserable debate performance, the Bureau of Labor Statistics produced a jobs report with a whopping 0.3 percent drop in unemployment over the single month of September.

The Wall Street Journal noted the numbers should be taken "with a grain of salt."

Jack Welch, former CEO of General Electric, tweeted, "Unbelievable jobs numbers … these Chicago guys will do anything … can't debate so change numbers."

The BLS report says that the labor pool grew by 418,000, almost the same amount it shrunk by in August due to people giving up on looking for work.

In addition to those new workers, 456,000 previously unemployed people suddenly found employment. That means, according to the BLS, that the economy added 873,000 jobs in one month, something that hasn't happened in almost 30 years, and utterly remarkable for an economy that added fewer than 100,000 jobs a month earlier, prior to "adjustment" by the BLS.

The numbers are so inexplicable that even the mainstream media are having a hard time selling them, and given Obama's self-destructive performance at this week's debate, it doesn't take much of an intuitive leap to conclude the administration is trying to cover for its boss yet again.

While the Obama camp makes up excuses about secret Romney notes to explain the debate, the BLS is doing its part too, it seems. It will be interesting to see the numbers after the election. I predict a big "adjustment."

 

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