"If you look at our estimate of Mitt Romney's chances of winning the Electoral College, which are about 15 percent right now in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, the touchdown analogy works best: Mr. Romney has about as much chance of winning as an N.F.L. team does when it trails by a touchdown early in the fourth quarter.
It might be surprising that a team down by just a touchdown — a close game, by any common description of it — winds up winning so rarely. But there are a few things to consider.
First, a field goal alone won't be enough for the team to come back. It needs something big to happen — or it needs to score at least twice.
Second, although there's still enough time in the game for the trailing team to have multiple opportunities to score, there is also enough time for the opponents to score as well and extend their lead. So the team still has to play defense — it's not purely a two-minute drill."
- Nate Silver
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- Ikhide
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