"Moreover, Silver's model is currently estimating that Obama will win 295 electoral votes. That's eight fewer than predicted by Sam Wang's state polling meta-analysis and 37 fewer than Drew Linzer's Votamatic.
So before we deal with anything Silver has specifically said, it's worth taking in the surrounding landscape: Every major political betting market and every major forecasting tool is predicting an Obama victory right now, and for the same reason: Obama remains ahead in enough states that, unless the polls are systematically wrong, or they undergo a change unlike any we've yet seen in the race, Obama will win the election.
There's no doubt about that. Real Clear Politics, which leans right, shows Romney up by 0.8 percent nationally, but shows Obama up in Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Romney is up in Florida and North Carolina, but note that his lead in Florida is smaller than Obama's lead in Ohio. And RCP shows Colorado and Virginia tied. Pollster.com, meanwhile, shows Obama leading by a point in Colorado and Virginia and the race tied in Florida.
It's important to be clear about this: If Silver's model is hugely wrong — if all the models are hugely wrong, and the betting markets are hugely wrong — it's because the polls are wrong. Silver's model is, at this point, little more than a sophisticated form of poll aggregation."
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- Ikhide
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