USA Africa Dialogue Series - 'The Rasmussen Difference'

The Rasmussen Difference
Posted: 10/27/2012 12:42 pm Alan Abramowitz Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science, Emory University
In 2012 as in 2008 and 2010, Rasmussen has been the nation's most prolific polling organization at the state level. Almost every day Rasmussen produces two or three new polls of key battleground states in the presidential election along with their national tracking poll. But in addition to being the nation's most prolific pollster, Rasmussen gets a lot of attention, especially from conservative media outlets and pundits, because its polls consistently produce results more favorable to Republican candidates than the overall averages -- results that frequently don't match the actual election results very well. In 2010, for example, Nate Silver rated Rasmussen as the least accurate and most biased of all polling organizations that conducted a large number of state polls.
So how is Rasmussen doing this year? Along with its national tracking poll that has typically showed Mitt Romney with a lead that is two to three points larger than the overall average, Rasmussen's polls in the battleground states have also had a consistent Republican lean. I compared Rasmussen's latest results in the nine key battleground states -- Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and North Carolina -- with the overall averages from the HuffPost Pollster -- an average that includes Rasmussen polls. In every case, Rasmussen's poll showed a better result for Romney than the overall average. The Republican lean of Rasmussen's state polls ranged from one point in Nevada and two points in Florida to four points in Wisconsin and five points in Colorado. Across all nine states, Rasmussen's polls favored Mitt Romney by about three points more than the overall average.
Read the rest here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-abramowitz/the-rasmussen-difference_b_2030330.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster

--
--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the "USA-Africa Dialogue Series" moderated by Toyin Falola, University of Texas at Austin.
For current archives, visit http://groups.google.com/group/USAAfricaDialogue
For previous archives, visit http://www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa/ads/index.html
To post to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue-
unsubscribe@googlegroups.com