USA Africa Dialogue Series - UN warns of looming worldwide food crisis in 2013

UN warns of looming worldwide food crisis in 2013

• Global grain reserves hit critically low levels
• Extreme weather means climate 'is no longer reliable'
• Rising food prices threaten disaster and unrest

John Vidal
The Observer, Saturday 13 October 2012 19.35 BST


World grain reserves are so dangerously low that severe weather in the
United States or other food-exporting countries could trigger a major
hunger crisis next year, the United Nations has warned.

Failing harvests in the US, Ukraine and other countries this year have
eroded reserves to their lowest level since 1974. The US, which has
experienced record heatwaves and droughts in 2012, now holds in
reserve a historically low 6.5% of the maize that it expects to
consume in the next year, says the UN.

"We've not been producing as much as we are consuming. That is why
stocks are being run down. Supplies are now very tight across the
world and reserves are at a very low level, leaving no room for
unexpected events next year," said Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior
economist with the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). With
food consumption exceeding the amount grown for six of the past 11
years, countries have run down reserves from an average of 107 days of
consumption 10 years ago to under 74 days recently.

Prices of main food crops such as wheat and maize are now close to
those that sparked riots in 25 countries in 2008. FAO figures released
this week suggest that 870 million people are malnourished and the
food crisis is growing in the Middle East and Africa. Wheat production
this year is expected to be 5.2% below 2011, with yields of most other
crops, except rice, also falling, says the UN.

The figures come as one of the world's leading environmentalists
issued a warning that the global food supply system could collapse at
any point, leaving hundreds of millions more people hungry, sparking
widespread riots and bringing down governments. In a shocking new
assessment of the prospects of meeting food needs, Lester Brown,
president of the Earth policy research centre in Washington, says that
the climate is no longer reliable and the demands for food are growing
so fast that a breakdown is inevitable, unless urgent action is taken.

"Food shortages undermined earlier civilisations. We are on the same
path. Each country is now fending for itself. The world is living one
year to the next," he writes in a new book.

According to Brown, we are seeing the start of a food supply breakdown
with a dash by speculators to "grab" millions of square miles of cheap
farmland, the doubling of international food prices in a decade, and
the dramatic rundown of countries' food reserves.

This year, for the sixth time in 11 years, the world will consume more
food than it produces, largely because of extreme weather in the US
and other major food-exporting countries. Oxfam last week said that
the price of key staples, including wheat and rice, may double in the
next 20 years, threatening disastrous consequences for poor people who
spend a large proportion of their income on food.

In 2012, according to the FAO, food prices are already at close to
record levels, having risen 1.4% in September following an increase of
6% in July.

"We are entering a new era of rising food prices and spreading hunger.
Food supplies are tightening everywhere and land is becoming the most
sought-after commodity as the world shifts from an age of food
abundance to one of scarcity," says Brown. "The geopolitics of food is
fast overshadowing the geopolitics of oil."

His warnings come as the UN and world governments reported that
extreme heat and drought in the US and other major food-exporting
countries had hit harvests badly and sent prices spiralling.

"The situation we are in is not temporary. These things will happen
all the time. Climate is in a state of flux and there is no normal any
more.

"We are beginning a new chapter. We will see food unrest in many more
places.

"Armed aggression is no longer the principal threat to our future. The
overriding threats to this century are climate change, population
growth, spreading water shortages and rising food prices," Brown says.


© 2012 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated
companies. All rights reserved.

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