Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Romney And Obama Tied, But Romney Leads Aming White Voters

Mwalimu, I'm trying to find a way of breaking this to you gently, but you do know that the votes of white voters (or any other demographic group) aren't more valid than any other voters?

And have you seen the early voting returns?  Only Colorado showed up with a majority for the Republicans.  And early voting has been extended in Florida ...

Ayo

I invite you to follow me on Twitter @naijama

On 4 Nov 2012, at 19:45, Abdul Karim Bangura <theai@earthlink.net> wrote:

Tale of the Tape for Sunday, November 4, 2012:

Romney and Obama are tied, but Romney has a solid lead over Obama among white voters, who vote more and are more enthusiastic this year to vote. The figures include who have already vote and likely yo vote. So watch out for the Bradley and Wilder Effects!!!

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows the race tied with President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) remains undecided. See daily tracking history.

These figures include both those who have already voted and those likely to vote. Obama leads among those who have already voted, while Romney leads among those deemed likely to vote. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters are projected to be Democrats and 37% Republicans. Both candidates do well within their own party, while Romney has a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

One key to the outcome on Election Day will be the racial and ethnic mix of the electorate. In 2008, approximately 74% of voters were white. The Obama campaign has argued that this will fall a couple of percentage points in 2012 with an increase in minority voting. Others have noted the increased enthusiasm among white voters and the decreased enthusiasm among Hispanic voters and suggest that white voters might make up a slightly larger share of the electorate this time around. It is significant because Romney attracts 58% of the white vote, while Obama has a huge lead among non-white voters.

If the white turnout increases on Election Day, it will be very difficult for the president to win. If it decreases, it will be very difficult for him to lose. Rasmussen Reports currently estimates that white turnout will be similar to the 2008 totals.

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