By OKPA
Former Nigeria Central Bank Governor Charles Chukwuma Soludo, while a reasonably well educated man, is often ambitious in his utterances using numbers.
In a recent write up, he said Nigeria may be losing value of its 17m Diaspora population. While his view on losing connection is right, Mr. Soludo is far off on Nigeria having 17m Nigerians outside of Nigeria. Assuming Mr. Soludo is right, which any seasoned demographer and population expert will challenge him on, it means in the top 10 countries Nigeria like to migrate, there is a reasonable likelihood of 1.7m Nigerians in such country. That is not true and cannot be supported by statistical inference, modeling and or simulation.
Statistically and using inferences from well documented demographers, there is a rule of thumbs on migration and representation of persons from their native land in other countries. That rule of thumb states that 3-5 percent are typically the number of persons that may migrate from their native land. Using this rule of thumb, the most likely maximum number of Nigerians outside Nigeria will fall in the neighborhood of 8m on the high side while 4.8m will represent a reasonable estimate. Read More
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