USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fw: 2020: FAILED VISION AND BIG POWER ILLUSIONS

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From: maggie anaeto <maganaeto@yahoo.co.uk>

Date: Tue, 30 Apr 2013 18:02:31 +0100 (BST)

To: <ayo_olukotun@yahoo.com>

Subject: 2020: FAILED VISION AND BIG POWER ILLUSIONS

2020: FAILED VISION AND BIG POWER ILLUSIONS   By   Ayo Olukotun        National Planning Minister, Dr. Shamsudeen Usman, announced last week that Vision 20:2020, the project of Nigeria becoming one of the world's 20 largest economies in 2020 had hit the rocks.  It had become necessary, therefore, Usman said to adjust the goal to that of transforming into one of the world's largest 25 economies by 2020.  In other words, the transformation agenda is very much on course; only that tactical shifts had to be made in the goal post while keeping the overall strategic objective of attaining great power status within a decade alive.      Really? One is not so sure; for while in general, setting ambitious goals is desirable, it can also be counterproductive if there is too wide a gap between audacious benchmarking and reality especially if there is little evidence as in this case that incremental steps to vision fulfilment are being taken. For example, on the same day as Dr Usman made the announcement, Central Bank governor, Lamido Sanusi Lamido lamented in a  lecture he gave in Abia state, that Nigeria continues to import starch despite having a plenitude of cassava from which starch is made, as well as rice which grows easily on our soil.  Talking of cassava, one is tempted to wonder in passing what became of the much advertised cassava bread which we were told will soon flood the market and dramatically reduce our dependence on the importation of flour.      Part of the underlying problem is that we fancy ourselves as an actor on the world stage but refuse to muster the discipline, stamina and industry that can translate the potential conferred on us by material endowments into achieved status.  Several analysts have raised the question about what happens to us, for example, if current breakthroughs in mass produced alternative energy sources enter a fast track, forcibly crashing the price of oil. Even if that does not happen quickly, should not a country dreaming so often of a role on the world stage worry about such matters?     That is not all that should engross our attention.  Can we truly move up the world's economic ladder, as Vision 20:2020, now 25:2020 stipulates without an industrial economy? Something there does not add up, because what we see are industries on our soil, foreign and Nigerian relocating to neighbouring countries to evade an inclement business environment which threatens to wipe out their survival margins.  The problems in this area are too well known to required detailed iteration, but they include a pronounced law and order problem; corruption which forces up the cost of doing business; fitful power supply; policy summersaults and the absence of a national market collated by a fluent transportation grid.      Announcing a vision of great power status even in its recently amended form without taking care of the rudiments of decent and civilised existence looks like a huge joke. We are a graveyard of failed visions and aborted projects because we do not make the connect between planning, short term and medium-term; and the outstanding industry required to convert the visions into deliverables.   And now we face the challenge of managing vision fatigue precisely because of the penchant of our leaders to wax eloquent, raise expectations fever pitch through visioning only to dash them.      For instance, recall that when the draft blueprint of Vision 20:2020 was launched in September 2009, President Goodluck Jonathan, at the time vice president told the nation that: "What we are saying through this blueprint is that we are prepared to take the necessary steps to place us in our rightful place in the committee of nations.  The targets for Vision 20:2020 are realistic and can be achieved even before then."  Jonathan spoke in a similar hope-raising vein, when he was inaugurated president in May 2011.  On that occasion, and against the grain of decline in virtually all aspects of our economic and social life, Jonathan proclaimed a Korean style transformation agenda which will provide the impetus for the nation's joy ride to great power status.     Two years down the road, only the Nigerian Television Authority (NTA) and Dr Doyin Okupe will wager that the transformation agenda is very much on course; but most Nigerians I reckon tend to see things differently.  Visions unimplemented are little different from illusions or fantasises and no one respects a country that majors in daylight reveries and does not take on the hard grind of development.  Our illusion of great power status is fed by our huge population and the oil bonanza; little do we realise that a demographic advantage that is not harnessed easily becomes a demographic disaster or a Malthusian nightmare. The spectre of hordes of unemployed youths roaming the shantytowns amidst the easy availability of light weapons underlines this frightening scenario.  As to our oil, it is only as good as the use to which it is put and almost everyone agrees that we have done a very poor job of managing it, with a huge chunk of it going into sustaining a merry making and monumentally prodigal political elite.    The concept of soft power developed by Harvard Professor, Joseph Nye has gained currency as a way of rating nations in the global system based on such indices as culture, ideas, images, values as well as human development. It stands in contrast to earlier conceptions of power as might, raw force and coercive ability.  Nigeria with its low living standards, chaotic and corrupt governance; weak leadership; fractious political elite; rickety institutions and underperforming ethos, lacks the ability to attract other countries by force of example, and is thereby deficient on soft power. Less materially endowed countries on the continent such as Ghana, Botswana and South Africa inspire more hopes for lifting the black man's burden of servitude than a potential giant hobbled by incompetent and corrupt governance and often teetering on the brink of anarchy.    That is another way of saying that beyond  visions of great power status and of becoming one of the world's biggest economies, in 2020 or even 2050, given the current leisurely stroll towards that goal is the fundamental task of constructing a nation which can command attention by such factors as the aesthetics and environment-friendly character of  its cities; the egalitarianism of its growth models; the provenance of its export brands; the quality of its educational institutions; its capacity to innovate; the quality of its democracy and the ability to build consensus and resolve conflicts.    The high mortality rate of visions compels us to counsel that we do not need another grand vision, flagged off with pageantry only to gestate on the garbage heap.  Even the modified version of Vision 2020 stands no chance of being fulfilled on current, unedifying terms.  What more, it hardly addresses, as I have argued, the soft power components of big power status.  Take care of the little things and the bigger matters will take care of themselves, someone has admonished.  That is an advice worth pondering by the authors and political marketers of our many failed visions.   Prof Olukotun is Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences and Entrepreneurial Studies at Lead City University, Ibadan. ayo_olukotun@yahoo.com 07055841236