Nuclear Russian in the Black Sea; nuclear China in the China Sea; nuclear North Korea in the Peninsula; "nuclear" Iran and Syria in the Gulf and Hezbollah and Hamas in the Palestine. Can these volcanos erupt simultaneously? What trigger are we looking for that will define an American existential struggle to hold on to its power in the world?
I think both sides in the Ukraine conflict (the West and Russia) have sufficiently undermined International laws in the 21st century for such considerations not to matter much to Russia in this evolving Game - the Russian position and frustration in Iraq, Kosovo, Libya, Afghanistan etc is well documented; and the West's position in Georgia, Syria is also well-known. For this reason, my questions took the helplessness and toothlessness of International Law as given.
My considerations are purely on what could be the next level of experience in this conflict.
First, the US and EU have done nothing so far that is so unpredictable in this high stake game to suggest Russia has not taken it into account in its actions. Hence, over reaction, and the rush to do "something" by the Western Allies might only make Putin to raise the stakes beyond what the Western Allies could win without a hot tactical war. Is the US ready to go to war over Crimea? Putin knows US will not go to war, and the American public will not tolerate it, hence every other move by the West is sufficiently predictable, and the cost might have already been taken into account.
Take for instance a particular evolution of the game, US exercises the "nuclear" option in diplomacy: economic sanctions, economic sabotage, and isolation.
Russian bites the bullet, escalates the game by moving into the whole of Eastern Ukraine and declares independence for that region. It deepens it by encouraging Syria to back out of the chemical weapons accord and bomb the rebels there to submission, even with chemical weapons. Putin, with nothing to lose economically or diplomatically, then further moves to unilaterally undermine the sanction regime over Iran (assuming Saudi Arabia joins the West in this game). It may even decide to move missiles to Cuba and Venezuela; and also push game-changing weapons to Hezbollah and Hamas. With nothing else to risk except a hot war, all these will bring economic gains and diplomatic clout to Russia so they are possibilities in order to make up for some of the losses from the West's most biting sanctions.
Meanwhile, China, taking the hint, undermines US security guarantees in the China Sea and invades Taiwan and all the disputed islands.
North Korea, then, with the middle finger sticking out to the West and secretly backed by Russia and China, matches on South Korea.
What would the US, NATO and the EU do if this game were to evolve to this level? Would they, or could they, go to tactical war in different theaters against different powers? This is not 1945, today everyone has the "N" bomb, so no sane country will use it first, and there are no "free" soldiers from the colonies to sacrifice in theatres. And this is not 1968, Russia is not a communist nation, it is a market economy, so nationalists around the world are not scared of communism coming with Russian support.
I think the one thing that would prevent the game from evolving along this path is to ensure that at any given time, everyone has a potential loss, that every party still has something to lose. Without the potential for further diplomatic or economic losses there is no incentive for Russia to not move all out. Hence, the West should continue to talk to Russia, reset the geopolitical order, accept that spheres of influence are critical to the national pride and sense of security of powerful nations whether the US or EU or China or Russia. That if the US would not accept defensive positions by Russia in Cuba or Venezuela, then it has to accept that Russia will not accept NATO in Ukraine and the Black Sea. And for China, it will, one day, surely move into Taiwan. Unless the US is willing to go to war then, it should begin now to negotiate a friendly transition like the British did with Hong Kong.
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