By Ohia Israel
One the much talked about issue in the Nigerian polity is the expected declaration President Goodluck Jonathan ahead of the 2015 general election in the country. Even as President Gooluck Jonathan is touring the states of the Federation in the name of PDP unity rally, which may seem to many as he has interest in running for the office of the President for 2015, many Nigerians are eagerly awaiting for his declaration for the top office.
DESERT HERALD findings revealed that there are lots of factors that have continued to hold the President not to declare his interest for the 2015 general election. One of the reasons, as gathered by this paper, is the issue of whether he will contest along with Vice President Namadi Sambo as running mate, following agitations from political stalwarts from the North West Zone that he (Sambo) cannot deliver his zone, especially with the gale of decampment of many top politicians from that zone to the APC.
However, the tension has been doused as it was gathered that the President has clandestinely appointed Vice President Namadi Sambo to head a Committee that would work out plans for his declaration.
According to sources, President Jonathan had met with some key governors and Senators in the northern part of the country and advised them to have a change of mind on their agitation to drop Sambo as his running mate. It was also gathered that in the meeting, President Jonathan also urged those that are anti-Sambo to sheath their swords and join hands to battle the All Progressives Congress (APC) in winning the election, even as he informed them that dropping the Vice President my bring additional serious crisis in the PDP.
According to the source “Jonathan has met with key northern governors and senators and informed them of his decision to retain his deputy. He asked them to stop agitating for Sambo’s removal as it will further divide the party and give the All Progressive Congress a fresh advantage”.
DESERT HERALD findings revealed that President Jonathan had also called on all stakeholders of the PDP from the North-West to a meeting with the aim of giving Sambo another chance to be his running mate.
The source also added that:”Sambo was said to have been directed to put together a “compact team to work out prudent measures that will herald a hitch-free declaration.” President Jonathan cannot wait for too long in the face of all that is happening in the polity because doing so is inimical to most interests, particularly the interests of the PDP.
“Against this backdrop, we insisted that he give a semblance of readiness which he did recently by asking the Vice-President Namadi Sambo to set up a closely-guarded team to work between now and May which has been tentatively fixed for the declaration of Mr. President for a second term in office.”
The source revealed that the Vice President had co-opted former Works Minister and Chairman of the PDP’s Board of Trustees (BoT), Tony Anenih, former Chairman of the Board of the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA), Bode George, and Governors, one each from the geo-political zones of the country to work out plans towards the Jonathan’s declaration.
Another factor which this paper learnt is the issue of some aspirants who were in the party before, which was a scaring issue to Mr. President. It was gathered that President Jonathan’s ambition was being threatened by some aspirants in the Peoples Democratic Party who showed interest in the presidential race.
It was gathered that those who have interest to run for the office of the President reconsidered their stand because of the President’s ambition to receive the mandate for another four years. Even though the President is yet to declare his second term ambition, his posters and banners are already adorning major streets in the Federal Capital Territory.
And while the PDP was yet to officially adopt him, some members of the party’s National Working Committee had at major party functions prayed for the success of the President in the 2015 poll. Jonathan’s firm grip on the party’s national leadership and majority of the governors is said to be worrying a few of the party members who might be willing to show interest in the race.
As gathered, the defection of five of its governors to the opposition All Progressives Party, was a sigh of relief for Mr. President, as it was gathered that the defected governors “were considered problematic” and were capable of rocking the boat in the party. Aside the five defected governors, the party leadership also refused to make a move at wooing former Vice President Atiku Abubakar even when he was consulting on whether or not to follow the five governors to APC.
According to a party chieftain “We may not have serious contenders for the party’s presidential ticket apart from the President.” More so another factor as gathered by this paper is that the President is busy consulting nationwide which started with his visits to monarchs in the All Progressives Congress (APC)-controlled states of the South West geo-political zone, recently.
As gathered when he eventually declared, the Director General of the second term campaign will be Ambassador Aminu Wali who was screened by the Senate as a ministerial nominee from Kano Sate recently as former Kano State Governor, Ibrahim Shekarau, is being tipped to replace an earlier nominee forwarded to the Senate, Hajiya Jamilla Salik, for screening may be suspended till April, it was learnt.
It was gathered that a fresh political realignment at the weekend necessitated the suspension of Shekarau’s nomination as a minister for now.
“Before the President forwarded Hajiya Salik’s name for Senate screening, the favoured candidate for the post was a former top shot in the National Assembly from the state. It wasn’t Shekarau’s name that was to come to the Senate. It was a former political top shot from the state. The choice of Salik was a last-minute replacement when Ambassador indicated interest in taking up the post.”
Wali’s choice, it was further gathered, was mulled as “a stop-gap measure. He would eventually be moved to occupy the DG position, a role played by Nigeria’s High Commissioner to Britain, Senator Dalhatu Tafida, in the 2011 presidential poll whenever the President makes public his intent to contest for a second term.
Another factor which is holding the President is the issue of the Federal High Court judgment which was to determine his eligibility. And in his waiting for the Judgment, President Goodluck Jonathan got a favourable judgment as the Federal High Court in Kaduna recently struck out a suit seeking to restrain President Goodluck Jonathan from seeking re-election in the 2015 general elections brought before it by two leaders of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
The plaintiffs, Richard Mneaga and Shuaibu Lili, had sought for, among other prayers, an order of the court to disqualify Jonathan from presenting himself as a presidential candidate of the PDP in the 2015 election, and for the court to order the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to restrain the PDP from accepting nomination of Jonathan as its presidential candidate in the 2015 election.
In the suit, filed on October 7, 2013, they insisted that Jonathan had completed eight years in office as President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria calculated from May 29, 2007. The plaintiffs also sought for “a declaration that President Jonathan is not entitled to tenure of office as President exceeding eight years calculated from 2007, till last holder of the said office”.
Ruling on the case, the presiding judge, Justice Evelyn Anyadike, said the plaintiffs lacked the locus standi to drag President Jonathan to court based on section 308 of the Constitution which gives him immunity not to sue or be sued, and therefore affirmed that Jonathan has the constitutional right to contest for presidency in 2015 if he so desires.
She also said the court lacks the jurisdiction to entertain the matter since the plaintiffs did not follow the due process of filing their case, saying the petition was served out of jurisdiction. She however dismissed the case for lack of merit. Reacting to the judgment, counsel to the plaintiffs, Mohammed Ibrahim, faulted the technicalities on which the judge relied to deliver her judgment instead of looking at the matter from its merit.
He, however, said they would proceed to the Appeal Court for further interpretation of the lower court’s judgment and also for the upper court to determine whether President Jonathan had the constitutional right to seek another term in office in 2015. But Counsels to the first and second defendants, President Goodluck Jonathan and the PDP, Nnamdi Ekwem and Victor Kwon respectively, hailed the judgment, describing it as another landmark victory for democracy and rule of law.
It was also gathered that the President jettisoned the promise he allegedly made to ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo that he would not go for a second term. A Presidency source said that apart from such a promise being unknown to the 1999 Constitution, it is also untenable under the “principle of equitable estopel.”
Therefore the Namadi Sambo Committee set up by the President to work out modalities for his declaration is reported to have recommended three strategies to the President to test the waters before formally declaring his intention to seek re-election, and it was learnt that the President accepted all three and added one, the strategies as adopted include; holding rallies in some states to receive defectors; zonal rallies to mobilise PDP members and gauge their feelings; and visitation to the Presidential Villa by governors/groups/ opinion leaders to persuade Jonathan to go for a second term.
The fourth strategy designed by the President’s kitchen cabinet is intermittent worship in some selected churches of different missions to “win their sympathy subtly ahead of 2015.” According to a reliable source, who spoke in confidence, said: “Going by the proposal of the Declaration Committee, the President may make his second term intention known during the third anniversary of his administration in May or early June?
“The committee has however set machinery in motion for Jonathan to test the waters in three ways ahead of the declaration. The strategies are defection rallies in some; proposed zonal rallies to mobilise PDP members; and visitations to the Presidential Villa. “After the three strategies have been executed, the President will then come out to declare his intention to seek a second term mandate.
“And judging from the defection rallies, the journey to 2015 has started. Although PDP has not been campaigning, the body language of its leaders at the rally suggested that it has kicked off the race for 2015.” On the fourth strategy, the source added: “It is a product of the kitchen cabinet of the President.”
Asked why the President will contest in 2015 in spite of a promise to ex-President Obasanjo that he would spend a term in office, the source added “The 1999 Constitution guarantees the President’s right to contest for a second term in office. And a constitution is superior to any other promise or so-called agreement which no one has produced.
“The President will also be relying on the principle of equitable estopel to seek a second term. A promise is a shield but not a sword. What it means is that a promise is lesser in strength than a right. The President deserves the right to seek a second term; no promise can override it.”
It was learnt that the President is disposed to retaining Vice-President Namadi Sambo as his running mate in 2015, contrary to the initial push by some forces in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Prior to the decision of the President to retain Sambo, there were speculations that either Governor Ibrahim Shema or Governor Isa Yuguda might be picked.
A presidency source said: “I think the President has decided to stick with Sambo as his running mate. This was why he appointed Sambo as the chairman of the Declaration Committee. “In fact, Shema and Yuguda are members of the Declaration Committee, foreclosing the chances of the governors becoming the VP.
“The stable presidency which Jonathan has enjoyed with Sambo was a critical factor in guiding Jonathan to make up his mind. Instead of what obtained during Obasanjo’s presidency, Sambo has been trailing the shadows of his boss. He is not rocking the boat in any manner. The recent political gains in the North-West by Sambo also encouraged the President to give his deputy a second chance too.”
Meanwhile, this paper also learnt that the political camp of former President Olusegun Obasanjo may have been thrown into confusion as his loyalists are said to be strongly divided over the decision of whether to decamp to the opposition, All Progressives Congress, APC or remain with the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in support of President Goodluck Jonathan’s second term ambition. Investigations revealed that a motion was moved to decamp to APC by some of the ex-president’s loyalists at a meeting of the PDP caucus in Ogun State, held at Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library (OOPL), recently
The motion to join APC, sources told DESERT HERALD, was moved by the Ogun East senatorial chairman, Tayo Ajayi, and seconded by another elder from Ogun West, Shina Adejobi but a counter motion was moved by a former lawmaker who represented Ifo I constituency at the state House of Assembly, Hon. Johnson Fatoki, before the motion was put to vote.
At the end of the voting, 14 PDP chairmen out of the 20 across Ogun and two serving members of the state House of Assembly, Job Akintan and Abiodun Akovoyon, allegedly countered the motion to join the APC. Sources at the meeting told this paper that after the move to join APC hit a brick wall, the two groups were advised to continue negotiating with the parties of their choice and report back to the house.
At the meeting, Sunday Alawode who was elected interim Chairman of the caucus, said the Obasanjo group was not in support of the move to negotiate with the APC, adding that members of the group were solidly behind the reconciliatory moves by the new Chairman of the PDP, Adamu Mu’azu.
“Yes, a meeting was held and someone moved a motion to join the APC and the motion was countered. 14 local government Chairmen and all political functionaries were not in support of the move and since Obasanjo has made it clear he is staying in PDP, we stand by him on that decision.
“We congratulate the new National Chairman of our party and believe in his ability to reconcile the party in the South-west and Ogun State in particular. We also support President Jonathan’s 2015 presidential ambition and we are ready to work for its success”, he said.
While the president is angling for his declaration, indications are rife that a number of political bigwigs are putting together a grand coalition aimed at stopping the second term ambition of President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. According to information available to a national daily (not DESERT HERALD), indicates that former president, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, is at the head of the grand coalition against Jonathan’s second term bid.
While this is on, on the other hand, the governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar were heading different segments of the coalition with different strategic agenda. Sources said one of the strategies was legal, with the plan to stop Jonathan through the courts, which were expected to declare his second term bid as unconstitutional, while another political strategy was being worked out by another segment. Sources also said on the legal front, two cases had already been instituted, one in Kaduna and the other in Abuja, as the two suits sought to nullify Jonathan’s second term bid.
While one of the suits was aimed at securing an order that Jonathan would be seeking a third term if he contested the 2015 election, another was seeking the court order to stop the president on the strength of the claim that the constitution of Nigeria did not envisage a president holding office for more than two terms of eight years.
In the reckoning of the president’s opponents, the fact that Jonathan came into office in 2010 and spent one year as part of the tenure of his late boss, Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua, meant that he would be spending more than the recommended eight years in office if he contested the 2015 election.
Dependable sources confirmed that those behind the court cases were planning to shock the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as, according to sources, the plan was to secure a ruling nullifying President Jonathan’s nomination, close to the election. It was also gathered that those behind the plot had concluded that Jonathan would secure the PDP ticket with ease, but that the best way to knock the PDP off the 2015 race was to secure a Supreme Court ruling nullifying his candidature few weeks to the election in February 2015.
“When one of the opposition parties spoke recently and declared that the PDP would be shocked in 2015, what they were subtly referring to is the plot that is seeking to knock Jonathan out of the 2015 race. The plan is to secure some rulings from the apex court in the land, very close to the election time, when it would be impossible to replace the candidate in accordance with the election timetable. That way, they are sure Jonathan would not be on the ballot and the PDP can be finally dealt with,” a source said.
It was learnt that Chief Obasanjo had made up his mind to join the forces to stop Jonathan legally and politically. He was recently said to have been instrumental to the recruitment of a South-West political bigwig into the plot. A source said the top South West politician was working with one of the governors who recently defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC) from the PDP, to fashion out a strategy paper on how to defeat Jonathan in 2015. It was learnt that on the intervention of some political stakeholders in the anti-Jonathan plot, one of the G5 governors flew into a state in the zone last week to hold talks with some of the foot soldiers.
A source also said that the visit of the suspended governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Lamido Sanusi, to the Alaafin of Oyo, Oba Lamidi Adeyemi, was also being linked with the political maneuvering by the opposition camp. According to the source, meanings were being read into moves by Sanusi in recent times, especially his friendship with key opposition figures and some of those involved in the G7 uprising in the PDP.
“Those studying Sanusi’s movements lately said he actually visited Alaafin a day after the president visited the traditional ruler and that the visit had a tinge of politics, but some allies of the CBN governor said he is not doing anything political. They have insisted that the man is only seeking ways out of the tango he entered into with the president,” a source said.
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