Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - FROM THE ARCHIVES: "Re-Visiting June 12, 1993 Nigerian Presidential Election Results" by Bolaji Aluko {RE: NO "JUNE 12" OBSERVATION!!!

Obi Emeka Anthony:

Thanks for your thoughts. Gubernatorial party incumbency could in fact have played a part in the voting pattern on June 12, 1993 - but not necessarily.  Your speculation caused me to re-visit my Table 2, as you will see below, with the addition of some columns to indicate the incumbent state governors and their political parties during the June 12 1993 presidential elections..

Recall that legislative (National Senate and House) and gubernatorial elections were held by the IBB regime in December 1991, with nine new states  (Abia, Enugu (from Anambra), Delta, Edo (from Bendel), Osun (from Oyo), Yobe, Taraba, Kogi, Jigawa) just created on August 27, 1991,  barely four months to the elections.  So many of the 30 states had no distinctive history really of party politics, except as part of a larger state.

Out of 30 states, 24 states were won by Abiola (14 states) and Tofa (10 states)  in the states of the governors of their own parties. That 80% coincidence index could be indicative of party effect.  However, all the 6 states (Lagos,  Kano, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross RIver and Akwa Ibom) that exhibited no coincidence were NRC gubernatorial states that crossed over to Abiola's SDP during the presidential elections of June 12.

And there you have it.

Bolaji Aluko

___________________________________

Table 2 (Revised):

Revised State Analysis of 1993 Presidential Elections
 

S/N	State	Rank by 1991 Census	Rank by Total Votes	1991 Census Population Figure	Total Votes Cast	Election Participation Index (EPI)	Rank by EPI	Winner	Party	Win Ratio	Incumbent Governor	Party	Party Coinc.
1	Sokoto	3	12	4,392,391	469,976	23.67	27	Tofa	NRC	3.81	Yahya Abdulkarim	NRC	1
2	Kebbi	26	28	2,062,226	215,027	23.07	28	Tofa	NRC	2.06	Abubakr Musa	NRC	1
3	Rivers	5	3	3,983,857	1,011,651	56.18	2	Tofa	NRC	1.73	Rufus Ada-George	NRC	1
4	Niger	18	19	2,482,367	357,787	31.89	18	Tofa	NRC	1.62	Musa Inuwa	NRC	1
5	Katsina	8	13	3,878,344	442,239	25.23	23	Tofa	NRC	1.58	Sa'idu Barda	NRC	1
6	Bauchi	4	4	4,294,413	864,175	44.52	7	Tofa	NRC	1.55	Dahiru Mohammed	NRC	1
7	Abia	21	26	2,297,978	256,500	24.70	25	Tofa	NRC	1.44	Ogbonnaya Onu	NRC	1
8	Imo	17	20	2,485,499	355,186	31.62	20	Tofa	NRC	1.23	Evan Enwerem	NRC	1
9	Adamawa	24	24	2,124,049	308,114	32.09	17	Tofa	NRC	1.19	Saleh Michika	NRC	1
10	Kogi	25	9	2,099,046	488,432	51.48	4	Tofa	NRC	1.19	Abubakar Audu	NRC	1
11	Lagos	1	2	5,685,781	1,033,397	40.21	13	Abiola	SDP	5.92	Michael Otedola	NRC	0
12	Kano	2	22	5,362,040	324,328	12.74	31	Abiola	SDP	1.10	Kabiru Ibrahim Gaya	NRC	0
13	Kaduna	6	5	3,969,252	746,593	41.62	8	Abiola	SDP	1.09	Mohammed Dabo Lere	NRC	0
14	Enugu	11	8	3,161,295	517,151	36.19	14	Abiola	SDP	1.04	Okwesilieze Nwodo	NRC	0
15	AkwaIbom	19	16	2,359,736	374,124	35.08	15	Abiola	SDP	1.35	Obong Akpan Isemin	NRC	0
16	CrsRiver	27	21	1,865,604	342,755	40.65	12	Abiola	SDP	1.23	Clement David Ebri	NRC	0
17	Osun	22	10	2,203,016	484,971	48.71	5	Abiola	SDP	7.18	Isiaka Adeleka	SDP	1
18	Ondo	7	1	3,884,485	1,046,018	59.58	1	Abiola	SDP	5.42	Dele Olumilua	SDP	1
19	Oyo	9	7	3,488,789	641,799	40.70	11	Abiola	SDP	5.07	Kolapo  Ishola	SDP	1
20	Ogun	20	14	2,338,570	437,334	41.38	9	Abiola	SDP	5.07	Segun Osoba	SDP	1
21	Kwara	28	17	1,566,469	368,489	52.05	3	Abiola	SDP	3.59	Shaba Lafiaji	SDP	1
22	Delta	16	11	2,570,181	473,278	40.74	10	Abiola	SDP	2.24	Olorogun Felix Ibru	SDP	1
23	Edo	23	23	2,159,848	308,979	31.65	19	Abiola	SDP	1.98	John Oyegun	SDP	1
24	Borno	15	25	2,596,589	282,174	24.04	26	Abiola	SDP	1.92	Maina Maaji Lawan	SDP	1
25	Yobe	30	29	1,411,481	175,948	27.58	22	Abiola	SDP	1.75	Bukar Abba Ibrahim	SDP	1
26	Plateau	10	6	3,283,784	676,959	45.61	6	Abiola	SDP	1.61	Fidelis Tapgun	SDP	1
27	Taraba	29	30	1,480,590	165,888	24.79	24	Abiola	SDP	1.59	Jolly Nyame	SDP	1
28	Jigawa	12	27	2,829,929	228,193	17.84	30	Abiola	SDP	1.55	Ali Sa'ad Birnin-Kudu	SDP	1
29	Anambra	14	18	2,767,903	367,053	29.34	21	Abiola	SDP	1.37	Chukwuemeka Ezeife	SDP	1
30	Benue	13	15	2,780,398	433,132	34.47	16	Abiola	SDP	1.33	Moses Orshin Adasu	SDP	1
31	FCT	31	31	378,671	38,281	22.37	29	Abiola	SDP	1.09	Coincidence Index		24
	Total			88,515,581	14,235,931	35.58		Abiola	SDP	1.42

On Sat, Jun 14, 2014 at 9:46 AM, 'obiemeka06' via USA Africa Dialogue Series <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com> wrote:

 

Thanks Prof for your illuminating analysis,but one very important factor you omitted in your analysis of the voting pattern is the issue of the parties that were in power in the various states then.For instance the NRC which Tofa belonged to was in charge in the eastern region apart from Anambra state.Dont you think this factor may have affected the voting pattern then?.If for instance a state was used to voting for the NRC,would they suddenly turn arround to vote for Abiola in SDP  considering the low literacy rate,the influence of the state governments and general voter enlightenment and awareness.

Perharps this information may further enrich your analysis.Thank sir.

Obi Emeka Anthony Anambra State University

Sent from Samsung tablet

Mobolaji Aluko <alukome@gmail.com> wrote:

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