Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - FROM THE ARCHIVES: "Re-Visiting June 12, 1993 Nigerian Presidential Election Results" by Bolaji Aluko {RE: NO "JUNE 12" OBSERVATION!!!

"Out of 30 states, 24 states were won by Abiola……."

--------MA

 

"Out of 30 states, 24 states were speculated to have been won by Abiola", would have been appropriate.  No results were announced by the appropriate authority.

 

CAO

On Sunday, 15 June 2014 15:01:29 UTC+1, Bolaji Aluko wrote:

Obi Emeka Anthony:

Thanks for your thoughts. Gubernatorial party incumbency could in fact have played a part in the voting pattern on June 12, 1993 - but not necessarily.  Your speculation caused me to re-visit my Table 2, as you will see below, with the addition of some columns to indicate the incumbent state governors and their political parties during the June 12 1993 presidential elections..

Recall that legislative (National Senate and House) and gubernatorial elections were held by the IBB regime in December 1991, with nine new states  (Abia, Enugu (from Anambra), Delta, Edo (from Bendel), Osun (from Oyo), Yobe, Taraba, Kogi, Jigawa) just created on August 27, 1991,  barely four months to the elections.  So many of the 30 states had no distinctive history really of party politics, except as part of a larger state.

Out of 30 states, 24 states were won by Abiola (14 states) and Tofa (10 states)  in the states of the governors of their own parties. That 80% coincidence index could be indicative of party effect.  However, all the 6 states (Lagos,  Kano, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross RIver and Akwa Ibom) that exhibited no coincidence were NRC gubernatorial states that crossed over to Abiola's SDP during the presidential elections of June 12.

And there you have it.

Bolaji Aluko

___________________________________

Table 2 (Revised):

Revised State Analysis of 1993 Presidential Elections
 

S/N	State	Rank by 1991 Census	Rank by Total Votes	1991 Census Population Figure	Total Votes Cast	Election Participation Index (EPI)	Rank by EPI	Winner	Party	Win Ratio	Incumbent Governor	Party	Party Coinc.
1	Sokoto	3	12	4,392,391	469,976	23.67	27	Tofa	NRC	3.81	Yahya Abdulkarim	NRC	1
2	Kebbi	26	28	2,062,226	215,027	23.07	28	Tofa	NRC	2.06	Abubakr Musa	NRC	1
3	Rivers	5	3	3,983,857	1,011,651	56.18	2	Tofa	NRC	1.73	Rufus Ada-George	NRC	1
4	Niger	18	19	2,482,367	357,787	31.89	18	Tofa	NRC	1.62	Musa Inuwa	NRC	1
5	Katsina	8	13	3,878,344	442,239	25.23	23	Tofa	<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" s

...

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