RE: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Politics, National Security and the Buhari Attack

Buhari is a politician.  He was a candidate in several past presidential elections. He may fairly be described as a "perpetual" presidential candidate after so many runs at this point in time. He must therefore be presumed to know the game of politics well. He must want as many votes as possible, if he chooses to be a candidate in the 2015  presidential election. He seems to be campaigning already as other prospective candidates are. Could he hope to benefit politically from self-alleging an assassination attempt on his life? Everyone must make up their own mind.

Quality evidence of an assassination attempt is credible evidence from a credible, independent, third party like the police and other security services after proper investigation. Quality evidence is very unlikely to be the account of a self- declared intended target of bomb attack in a public space. That a person died in a bomb attack in a busy public space does not definitely mean that the dead person was the intended target of the attack. There is what experts call collateral damage/fatality. Buhari himself was reported to have said that "innocent lives were lost" in the attack. Were the dead persons the intended targets of the attack for that reason only?

Buhari is free to believe as he pleases about a bomb attack in a busy market area, of a public road that he and other persons were travelling on. Buhari is free to describe the event as he chooses or remembers it.  The public has no obligation to believe him because he is Buhari. There are laws and approved practices for establishing the facts and the truth about such events.

I am fully cognizant that Buhari may indeed have been the intended target of the attack but I do not know that for a fact. The determination of the intended target of such an attack under Nigeria's law was not for Buhari or other victim or near victim to make. The determination is for the security services to make. That Buhari fears for his life as many Nigerians do every day, is not sufficient reason for him to declare himself the intended target of a bomb attack in an active market area of a busy public road, and expect one and all to run with him.   

The key question cannot be: "Can the Nigerian security agencies convince him (Buhari) that he is secured"? There is no need to convince him or anybody else. There is no such thing as 100 percent security. No security agency anywhere in the world can make that promise 100 percent security or give that commitment and expect to be believed. The most security agencies can do is promise to do their best by trying their hardest.  

 

oa

 

 

From: FKO [mailto:felixkayman@gmail.com]
Sent: Wednesday, July 30, 2014 4:22 AM
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
Cc: Anunoby, Ogugua
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Politics, National Security and the Buhari Attack

 

I wonder what would constitute quality evidence in this context. Perhaps if Buhari's life had been taken along with others, it might suffice as credible evidence that it was an attempt on his life. 

I don't believe that Buhari needs to wait for the security agencies to complete their investigation before announcing publicly, if he feels threatened by a dangerous situation. It is now the responsibility 

of the security forces to investigate and convince Buhari and his supporters that it was a random bombing and not an assassination attempt. Buhari's allegation that the bombing was an attempt on his life

may not be a fact, but that does not prevent him from announcing if he feels threatened as a politician and a Nigerian citizen. The key question is this: Can the Nigerian security agencies convince him that he is secured? 

I doubt that very much. The security agencies cannot boldly make such pronouncements at this time. The sad reality is that no Nigerian - politician or not - is safe.