Dear Prof ,
We need not worry so much because it is likely that no additional
state will be created any way . Politicians are just posturing and may
even be levying town unions money to pursue state creation in Abuja .
Apart from Midwest Region that was created from Western Region in the
early 1960s , no civilian government has created any new states .
Even the military regimes created new states and LGAs to gain
acceptability and stabilise their illegal regimes while pretending to
please the agitators for state creation .
Dr Olatunji Omowumi
On 7/11/14, Mobolaji Aluko <alukome@gmail.com> wrote:
> ___________________________________________________________________
>
>
> *THURSDAY ESSAY: Towards an Objective Formulation for Additional States
> Creation in Nigeria*
>
> *by*
>
> *Mobolaji E. Aluko, PhD*
> *alukome@gmail.com <alukome@gmail.com>*
>
> *Thursday, July 10, 2014*
>
> ___________________________________________________________________
>
>
> My People:
>
>
> Let me first address Vin Otuonye.
>
> I will respond to him quickly, and not to those other loud-mouthed
> anti-intellectual caterwaulers who cannot hold an intelligent and
> data-based argument without resorting to ad-hominem attacks and gratuitous
> insults. They know themselves - but I can name them if they wish. As a
> public intellectual, one learns to ignore such nattering nabobs of
> negativism, and forge ahead with one's point of view.
>
> First, I am not making the South-East "fall guy" as claimed by Vin.
> Rather, I am merely hinting at the fact that with the number of states
> proposed to be almost DOUBLED in that geo-region - from 5 to 9 - the
> negative effects of such an aggressive state creation will be most
> deleterious in that zone. Secondly, I fear that that many additional
> states is a political gimmick to DILUTE the request for just one or two
> states for the SE alone. Thirdly, it is a false hope: I do not believe
> that 19 new states are going to be created in Nigeria any time soon....with
> my relative success in World Cup punditry so far, you ignore my prediction
> to your own peril.
>
> Moving on.....
>
> I will now expatiate on (and refine theoretically) my belief that
> ADDITIONAL state creation (not INITIAL state creation) should be based on
> four factors, with suggested weightings as follows:
>
> 1. Land mass l: maximum 10 points.
> 2. Population p: maximum 20 points.
> 3. Agitation a: maximum 30 points
> 4. Economic Viability e: maximum 40 points
> 5. Criterion for additional state creation: l + p + a + e >=85 points
>
> which means that you need significant points from at least three factors,
> and possibly all the factors to scale the additional state creation test.
>
> Let me discuss point allocations *seriatim*:
>
> 1. Land mass (l). In the creation of two or more new states from
> existing ones, if the size of any of the new states is GREATER than the
> SMALLEST already existing states, assign it l=10 points. That satisfies an
> "envy" factor, eg what about small-sized New Hampshire - or small Ekiti or
> Imo State? However, for every 10% that a state is smaller in size than the
> smallest existing state, take away 2 points, such that all new proposed
> states that are fifty percent smaller in size than the smallest existing
> state attract no points at all.
>
> 2. Population (p). In the creation of two or more new states from
> existing ones, if the population (according to the latest census) of any of
> the new states is GREATER than the SMALLEST already existing states, assign
> it p=20 points. This again satisfies the "envy" factor - eg what about
> Alaska (small population) or (again) small-sized Ekiti State? Again,
> though, for every 10% that a proposed state is smaller in size than the
> smallest existing state, take away 2 points, such that all new proposed
> states that are fifty percent smaller in population than the smallest
> existing state attract no points at all.
>
> 3. Agitation (a). If there are some credible loud-mouthed
> "secessionists" for a particular new state - say on the pages of newspapers
> or on the Internet - assign a=5 points. If they are able to collect 10%
> of the population of the existing state that is to be broken up, assign 10
> points. If the agitation has escalated to a referendum that failed by
> (say) no more than 10 points, now assign 20 points. If the referendum
> succeeds, assign 30 points.
>
> 4. Economic Viability (e). Both the disaggregated GDP and the Poverty
> Rate of all the existing states should be cataloged and averaged. Assign
> eG=0 to ANY new proposed state whose population-weighted GDP is less than
> state-based national average GDP (ie National GDP/total number of existing
> states), eG=40 to those whose population-weighted GDP is equal to or
> greater than than 140% average GDP, and eG between 0 and 40 for those
> in-between. Also assign eP=0 for those states whose poverty rate is
> greater than or equal to the state-based national average, and eP=40 to
> those states whose poverty rate is less than or equal to 40% of the average
> national poverty rate, and eP between 0 and 40 for those in-between. (We
> will assume here that the poverty rate of the old state is inherited
> directly by the new proposed state.) Finally, the value of e to be used -
> our measure of "economic viability" of the newly-proposed state - should
> equal the average of eG and eP.
>
> If you have other ideas about an objective criteria for additional state
> creation, please bring them up.
>
> So there you have it.
>
>
> Bolaji Aluko
>
> PS: As an example, the poverty rates of various states in Nigeria are as
> given below,
>
>
> With an average rate of 61.7%, one should therefore be wary to create new
> states in most of the Northern states, and even in a few Southern states
> (Ebonyi, Enugu, Delta (surprisingly) and Edo). Consequently, due to at
> least two factors (Economic Viability and Land Mass), the state of Amana
> from Adamawa (for example) should virtually be Dead-on-Arrival,
> objectively, unless pure politics seriously intervenes.
>
>
>
>
>
> We shall see.....
>
>
> On Thu, Jul 10, 2014 at 8:10 AM, Vin Otuonye <vincentotuonye@msn.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Dr. Aluko:
>>
>> I don't think landmass should be the criteria for creation of states,
>> population should be.
>>
>> With respect regionalism and it being the general sentiments in the south
>> West, why do you think that is not the same general sentiments in the
>> south
>> east? But I tell you that with regards the delegates at the confab, even
>> among the South West delegates, regionalism is not the general
>> sentiments.
>> You may want to call your South West delegates and ask them about the
>> South
>> West delegates leaning towards regionalism vs states. I know for a fact
>> that Lagos delegates don't want regionalism. They simply don't want to be
>> receiving orders from Ibadan.
>>
>> Quite honestly, instead of focusing on the South East push for more
>> states, I think the important question you need to ask is why did the
>> confab jettison regionalism for states creation? From the answer to this
>> question, you'll realize that creation of new states Is not a south east
>> agenda but a national clamor. South south states don't want regionalism,
>> North Central states don't want regionalism, even some states in the
>> South
>> west don't want regionalism. In the committee at the National Conference,
>> the vote was about 28 in favor of states and about 8 in favor of
>> regionalism. So, why make the South East the fall guy for creation of
>> states when it is actually what the majority of people at the CONFAB
>> want?
>>
>> Vin Cool Breeze otuonye
>>
>>
>> From my Android phone on T-Mobile. The first nationwide 4G network.
>>
>>
>>
>> -------- Original message --------
>> From: Mobolaji Aluko <alukome@gmail.com>
>> Date: 07/10/2014 12:34 AM (GMT-05:00)
>> To: africanworldforum@googlegroups.com,Ike Agbor <ikeagbor@yahoo.com>
>> Cc: naijaintellects <naijaintellects@googlegroups.com>,USAAfrica Dialogue
>> <USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com>,"nigerianid@yahoogroups.com" <
>> nigerianID@yahoogroups.com>,NaijaPolitics e-Group <
>> NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com>,Yan Arewa
>> <YanArewa@yahoogroups.com>,OmoOdua
>> <OmoOdua@yahoogroups.com>,Ra'ayi <Raayiriga@yahoogroups.com>,NiDAN <
>> nidan-group@googlegroups.com>,ekiti ekitigroups <
>> ekitipanupo@yahoogroups.com>
>> Subject: [africanworldforum] RE: CONFAB OUTPUT: Carving Up the South East
>> Geo-Zone - from Five States to Nine States
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Ike Agbor:
>>
>> I will continue to dazzle your ilk, and withstand your insults, because
>> within them, you still seek enlightenment, and others less truculent can
>> gain some knowledge..
>>
>> In Nigeria, the South-East geo-zone is the most interested in state
>> creation: from its existing five states, it asks for one more, or even
>> two
>> more, or possibly four more, which would result in a smitherin
>> carving-up.....not an entirely enticing socio-economic prospect for the
>> zone, to my mind, judging from its present small landmass in particular.
>>
>> Now you ask about my South-West geo-zone. In addition to the new Ijebu
>> State sought below, there is also the New Oyo State being bandied:
>>
>>
>>
>> *(c) Bolaji Aluko (July 2014)*
>>
>> Now, if you look at the South-West geo-zone of NIgeria
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> to get a ninth state (after Lagos, Ogun, Ijebu, Oyo, New Oyo, Osun, Ekiti
>> and Ondo), carving up Osun State any further would not fly according to
>> by
>> p-l-e-a-f formulation. Rather, if some people insist, then it would
>> require either
>>
>> (1) further carving up of New Oyo into two states; or
>> (2) carving up Ondo State in mid-section; or
>> (3) carving up the south-eastern part of Kwara State (which is currently
>> in the North-Central zone) and joining it to the South-West geo-zone.
>>
>> By the way, the general sentiment in the South-West is a
>> re-regionalization, after which as many states as necessary can be
>> created
>> - or consolidated as the case may be.
>>
>> And there you have it, Ike Agbor. I hope that your own morbidity is now
>> satisfied.
>>
>>
>> Bolaji Aluko
>> Virtual delegate
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Wed, Jul 9, 2014 at 9:24 PM, 'ikeagbor' via AfricanWorldForum <
>> africanworldforum@googlegroups.com> wrote:
>>
>> Bolaji, it is either you have a morbid fear of the Igbo or simply fixated
>> on them for reasons only you can tell.
>> Of all the proposed states plus the one the osun obas are chasing with
>> their just concluded "royal" meeting and subsequent high powered letter
>> to
>> the confab, your fine combs always fancy looking east!
>> It is not the first from you.
>> Analyze this for a change...the six Yoruba states plus three more for a
>> total of nine states.
>> Ike
>>
>>
>> Sent from my MetroPCS 4G Android Device
>>
>>
>> -------- Original message --------
>> From: Mobolaji Aluko
>> Date:07/09/2014 7:20 PM (GMT-06:00)
>> To: africanworldforum@googlegroups.com
>> Cc: naijaintellects ,USAAfrica Dialogue ,"nigerianid@yahoogroups.com"
>> ,NaijaPolitics
>> e-Group ,Yan Arewa ,OmoOdua ,Ra'ayi ,NiDAN ,ekiti ekitigroups
>> Subject: Re: [africanworldforum] RE: CONFAB OUTPUT: Carving Up the South
>> East Geo-Zone - from Five States to Nine States
>>
>>
>> Ola Kassim:
>>
>> The creation of Aiyepe state from Ijebu State is most unlikely:
>>
>>
>> Its l-p-e-a factors are less than 10% each, for a total score of less
>> than
>> 10%! :-)
>>
>> And there you have it....definitely no Ayepe state.
>>
>>
>>
>> Bolaji Aluko
>>
>>
>> On Wed, Jul 9, 2014 at 8:01 PM, olakassimmd via AfricanWorldForum <
>> africanworldforum@googlegroups.com> wrote:
>>
>>
>> Bolaji:
>>
>> Do not forget Aiyepe state that could be carved out of
>> Ijebu state after the latter has been successfully carved
>> out of Ogun state.
>>
>> The capital of Aiyepe state will be Aba quarters with my family
>> donating our ancestral homes and land (the Olowoporoku Family
>> Compund)--for the building
>> of the state headquarters and the governor's residence,
>>
>> With Aiyepe state on the way to becoming a reality, smaller
>> territories like Agenebode might start crying about marginalization as an
>> excuse
>> to be carved out of Afenmai state after the latter would have been
>> successfully carved out
>> of Edo state. As her most famous son of the soil, JUI would likely be
>> chosen as the inaugural governor
>> of Agenebode state by consensus.
>>
>> On a more serious tone, the clamour to create more states in Nigeria
>> does
>> not take into consideration
>> 'the additional cost of governance in Nigeria. We do not need more
>> government in Nigeria; we need less.
>>
>> One cannot bake more cake simply by subdividing the same cake into
>> smaller and smaller slices.
>>
>> Similarly, the road to increased productivity and socioeconomic
>> advancement does not start with
>> carving out more states in Nigeria.
>>
>> With additional states created we would face the danger of dilution of
>> talent in the political class and in the civil service
>> which would result in further deterioration of government services.
>> With more states created we would get would be more formerly shoeless
>> governors who would become rich overnight when they become governors.
>>
>>
>> Bye,
>>
>> Ola
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ---- Original Message ----
>> From: Igietseme, Joseph (CDC/OID/NCEZID) (CDC/OID/NCEZID) <jbi8@cdc.gov>
>> To: naijaintellects <naijaintellects@googlegroups.com>; USAAfrica
>> Dialogue <USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com>; nigerianid@yahoogroups.com
>> <nigerianID@yahoogroups.com>; NaijaPolitics e-Group <
>> NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com>; Yan Arewa <YanArewa@yahoogroups.com>;
>> OmoOdua <OmoOdua@yahoogroups.com>; Ra'ayi <Raayiriga@yahoogroups.com>;
>> NiDAN <nidan-group@googlegroups.com>; ekiti ekitigroups <
>> ekitipanupo@yahoogroups.com>; africanworldforum <
>> africanworldforum@googlegroups.com>
>> Sent: Wed, Jul 9, 2014 5:56 pm
>> Subject: [africanworldforum] RE: CONFAB OUTPUT: Carving Up the South East
>> Geo-Zone - from Five States to Nine States
>>
>> VC Bolaji,
>> AFENMAI STATE has to emerge from all these! With Chief Mike Ozekhome,
>> SAN,
>> Chief Raymond Dokpesi, Senator Brimah etc etc all Afenmai indigenes at
>> the
>> National Conference, some of us can SMELL AFENMAI State when the dusts
>> settle down!! AFENMAI cannot be DENIED at State even if Nebu Adiele
>> transforms into a Conquering and Colonizing Alexander the Great in the 21
>> st Century AD!!
>> Stay tuned Folks! Take care. JUI [AFENMAI State on JUI's mind!!!!
>> Hehehe!!!]
>>
>> *From:* naijaintellects@googlegroups.com [
>> mailto:naijaintellects@googlegroups.com
>> <naijaintellects@googlegroups.com?>] *On Behalf Of *Mobolaji Aluko
>> *Sent:* Wednesday, July 09, 2014 5:48 PM
>> *To:* USAAfrica Dialogue; nigerianid@yahoogroups.com; naijaintellects;
>> NaijaPolitics e-Group; Yan Arewa; OmoOdua; Ra'ayi; NiDAN; ekiti
>> ekitigroups
>> *Subject:* [Naijaintellects] CONFAB OUTPUT: Carving Up the South East
>> Geo-Zone - from Five States to Nine States
>>
>>
>>
>> *Nigeria and its 36 States + FCT*
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> *Nine Old States (Enugu, Anambra, Imo, Abia, Ebonyi)*
>>
>>
>> *(c) Bolaji Aluko, July 2014*
>>
>> *Nine New States - approximate boundaries (Enugu, Adada Anambra, Imo,
>> Njaba/Anim, Abia, Aba, Ebonyi, Etiti)*
>>
>> *(c) Bolaji Aluko, July 2014*
>>
>>
>> Ndibanyi:
>>
>> Do you now know what state you are from?
>>
>> Inquiring minds want to know....
>>
>>
>>
>> Maazi Bolaji Aluko
>> Virtual Confab Delegate
>> While watching a boring Netherlands/Argentina match
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