USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fw: Osun: issues in focus

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-----Original Message-----
From: Tunde Oseni <tundeoseni@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 12:05:09
To: ayo_olukotun<ayo_olukotun@yahoo.com>
Subject: Osun: issues in focus

Osun: issues in focus
Ayo Olukotun

My tenure in Osun by the Grace of God and the will of the people will
end in 2018- Rauf Aregbesola, 20th July, 2014

If I meet Governor Aregbesola, I would greet him and tell him to be
preparing his handover notes-Iyiola Omisore, 20th July, 2014

The opening quotes sourced from the two leading candidates in the Osun
gubernatorial election indicate the keenness and intensity of the
campaigns which will culminate in the August 9 election. There are, to
be sure, twenty candidates jostling for the coveted seat but in
reality the contest has been described aptly as a 'three-tier horse
race' between the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) who
is also the incumbent governor, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, that of the
People's Democratic Party (PDP), Senator Iyiola Omisore, and that of
the Labour Party (LP) Alhaji Fatai Akinbade.

Before assessing the candidates and their platforms, a few statistics
are in order. Depending on which source you are citing the population
of the state is put variously at anywhere between 3.4 million (NPC)
and 4.4 million (UNFPA). INEC put the population of the registered
voters at 1.25 million and the voter card holders, as at the end of
April, at 59.6 percent of that number which is roughly 736, 000. The
number of polling units is also put at 3010. What this means is that
less than twenty five percent of the population of the state will on
August 9 decide the fate of the candidates. As a corollary, and in the
absence of opinion polls suggested by Punch columnist Professor Niyi
Akinnaso, several of the outspoken debaters and stargazers on the
election will neither vote nor will their views loom large on polling
day.

The other background matter worth-attending to, connects the issue of
militarization of the state along the lines of what happened in Ekiti.
While PDP members such as Minister of State for Works, Prince Adeyeye
argued that the presence of soldiers in Ekiti encouraged the voters to
come out in the confidence that no harm would befall them,
spokespersons of the APC insist that the soldiers and the security
agencies generally were not neutral arbiters but partisanly held the
ring against the opposition APC.

As a matter of fact, human rights lawyer, Mr. Femi Falana, SAN, has
stated the opinion that the deployment of soldiers for elections is
illegal. In the same vein, the APC has gone to court to restrain the
federal government from deploying soldiers for the election.
Considering that the role of the military in the Ekiti election and
the involvement of Alhaji Musiliu Obanikoro, Minister of State for
Defence , viewed as a PDP hawk, has become matters of controversy, it
might be unwise to repeat the Ekiti scenario of militarization in
Osun. Obviously, international attention will be focused on the
election given that the United States has argued that it would be bell
weather of the wider election of 2015.

Now, to the major candidates. Senator Iyiola Omisore of the PDP is not
a new comer to Osun and national politics. He has held the positions
of deputy governor as well as Senator . Well educated, Omisore stakes
his claim to governorship on an alleged deal between him and Akande
that Akande would back him for governorship after four years in
office; he argues to the bargain that he was already coasting home to
succeeding Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola as the governor before the
judicial victory and consequent swearing of Aregbesola in 2010.

There are issues however about the candidate one of which is memory of
his alleged controversial involvement in the assassination of the
former justice minister, Chief Bola Ige. It is conceivable that in
spite of the candidate's heated denial of alleged role in that tragic
event he has not succeeded in entirely laying the matter to rest.
Substantively, Omisore and his campaign team have mounted a spirited
campaign challenging the achievements and even personality of the
incumbent forcing the latter to defend his record. For instance,
Omisore has punched holes in the incumbent track record by alleging
that he has handed over the state to 'strangers' by which it is meant
Osun indigenes resident in Lagos. He has raised issues about the cost
of some of Aregbesola's projects; spotted errors in Opon Imo, a
flagship achievement of the governor and alluded to the controversy
raised by the schools' merger and wearing of hijab.

Unfortunately, Omisore has spent more time putting his opponent on the
spot and berating him than enunciating his own programmes. Although he
has hinted at an eight-point agenda, the electorate is barely familiar
with the high points of this programme as they are crowded out by his
politics of attack and threats of repeating Fayose's miracle victory
in Ekiti.

The incumbent, Aregbesola rides on the wave of his governance record
which centre around poverty reduction as illustrated by the Osun Youth
Empowerment Scheme (OYES), the facelift and modernization of Osogbo,
the state capital, educational reforms whose initial hiccups
Aregbesola insists is more than compensated for by the adjunct of a
far-flung project in which tailors, food vendors, and sundry artisans
are employed through the provision of uniforms and the school feeding
system. Articulating a neo-welfarist ideology on the lines of Chief
Obafemi Awolowo, Ogbeni, as he insists on being called (shunning the
use of 'His Excellency') has, by and large, implemented visionary
social programmes that have sought to bring governance to the nooks
and crannies of the state.

The Labour Party candidate, Akinbade, former Secretary of the Osun
State Government, would in other circumstances, considering his
mettle, have been a high profile contender. But as it is, the two
titans, Aregbesola and Omisore, have reduced him to the status of a
backbencher. In the event of a neck to neck election, however, he
might, ironically, come into his own as a 'beautiful bride'. This may
explain why he is being courted by both the APC and the PDP. It is
unlikely however, if a level playing field is provided that the PDP
would be able to repeat the Fayose miracle. In a text message sent
this writer, in the aftermath of my comment on the Ekiti election,
Pastor Biodun Bakare, after doing a post mortem of that election, went
on to say 'it is not going to be easy for Omisore in Osun State over
Aregbesola because the latter is closer to the people'. In other
words, Osun is a different kettle of fish from Ekiti to the extent
that Aregbesola, who has a thriving grassroots organizational culture,
cultivated a pro-people orientation. Significantly, and contrary to
the expectation that religion will be an issue, several Christian
leaders such as Bishop Oyedepo and Pastor Adeboye, have endorsed the
incumbent based on performance.

Conceivably, Omisore's battle cry would have been anchored on change.
It would seem however that in the circumstances of a state, arguably,
in the throes of governance upgrade and verifiable deliverables, the
message of 'change' is unlikely to be heeded. The election,
considering the various uses to which the omnibus 'federal might'
might be put may be closely fought but there is little doubt that the
incumbent stands a more than even chance of winning.

* Olukotun is Professor of Political Science and Dean, Faculty of the
Social Sciences, Lead City University, Ibadan

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