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From: Ajibola Olaitan <olakitan02@yahoo.com>
Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2014 03:14:13 -0700
To: ayo_olukotun@yahoo.com<ayo_olukotun@yahoo.com>
ReplyTo: Ajibola Olaitan <olakitan02@yahoo.com>
Subject: Will Nigeria Survive?
Will Nigeria Survive? Insights from a Roundtable
Ayo Olukotun
One of the conspicuous setbacks of Nigerian democracy is that politics continually pushes governance to the back burner-
Hafsat Abiola, July 5, 2014
'Nigeria go survive' is the guardedly optimistic refrain of a song composed by one of our musicians. But as several eminent scholars, mainly political scientists dissected Nigeria's future at a roundtable in Ibadan last Sunday, the lyrics that best express their mood is a rendition by another Nigerian musician entitled 'Who knows Tomorrow'?
The event was a roundtable convened at the instance of Professor Richard Joseph, the John Evans Professor of International History and Politics, Northwestern University, Evanston in the United States and was hosted by Lead City University, Ibadan. Joseph, who is best known to Nigerians by his magnificent study of 'Prebendal politics' (re-issued by Cambridge, 2014), is currently working on another project entitled 'State, Governance and Development in Nigeria: Pathways from Predicament', and was in Nigeria in that connection.
Joseph set the ball rolling by referring to the current distressing situation of Nigeria in which 'Boko Haram' has become an international signifier for the country. That is to say almost as soon as Nigeria is mentioned around the globe what comes to mind is not its economic potential but the raging insurgency at its Northeast border with its daily toll of atrocity killings and the Chibok kidnap saga. It is unlikely that the recent hiring of a United States public relations firm for 1.2 million dollars will produce a reversal of this negative image in the absence of a major victory in the anti-terrorism war such as the rescue of the kidnapped girls.
Emeritus Professor Bayo Adekanye observed that, to quote him, 'the times are out of joint'. He went on to cite as buttressing evidence the massive youth unemployment and a social crisis which produce discontent and anger in the land. Added to this is the 'do or die' character of Nigerian politics in which elections are viewed as internal wars among rival elite groups. The sense of flux or uncertainty as Professor Eghosa Osaghae, Vice Chancellor of Igbinedion University, described it gives the impression that just anything is possible in Nigeria.
One of the themes that ran through the discussion is that of the character of the citizens, a point introduced by Professor Gabriel Ogunmola, former President of the Nigerian Academy of Science and Chancellor of Lead City University. Alluding to the recent Ekiti election with its triumph of what is now popularly called 'stomach infrastructure', several speakers argued that the Nigerian moral conundrum cannot be resolved outside of the character and psyche of Nigerian citizens. Of course here we have a catch-22 situation in which morally bankrupt leadership skews the attitude and behaviour of the citizens in morally deficient ways. To illustrate the point by the Ekiti election, there must be a connection between a political leadership that saw nothing in recycling a politician facing corruption and murder charges and the victory in Ekiti of 'stomach infrastructure' by which is meant the wooing of voters by the distribution of amenities such as bags of rice.
Pungent views were expressed about the authoritarian nature of Nigerian federalism which it is argued is acting as a brake on the development of the constituent parts of what Professor Alaba Ogunsanwo, Nigeria's former Ambassador to Belgium, called a 'multinational state'. Arguing the case for a Confederal union or alternatively a proper federation, Professor Jide Owoeye, chairman, Governing Council of Lead City university made the point that the Nigerian crisis cannot be resolved outside of a true re-compacting of the Nigerian state along the lines of thriving federations such as Canada and India. It was assumed that the national conference, now winding down, would come up with fundamental panaceas that would re-draw the political map of Nigeria. Regrettably, however, after initial noises about regional autonomy all such hopes varnished and gave way to business-as-usual. In fact, the conference, in spite of the pedigree of some of its members, added the comical touch when it recommended the creation of 19 additional states, a proposal which is bound to further strengthen the centre at the expense of unviable mini-states.
Interrogating the character of the political elite, Chief Operating Officer of the Broadcasting Corporation of Oyo State, Yomi Layinka, pinpointed the mystery that the political class does not act often in accordance with its enlightened self interest. In other words, different sections of the elite not only beat the drums of wars in the bid to accumulate or retain power but show a willingness to bring the roof top crashing down on everyone in order to protect sectional or personal interests. If truth be told, the current Nigerian crisis could have been avoided if the political class had not employed self-destructive tactics that increase violence and bloodletting along religious or ethnic lines. Amplifying this point, Ogunsanwo opined that Boko Haram was a tiger employed by a section of the ruling class in the search for political advantage. The tiger has now run wild and unmanageable turning upon even its creators. In other words, this is the politics of brinkmanship or 'dancing on the brink' at its murderous limits.
Reflecting on this theme of the failure of elite cohesion Joseph referred to a conversation he had with a prominent northern politician some years ago. The politician kept saying that some of the emergent breed of leaders does not have a sense of how Nigeria works. This is to say that a federation so diverse can only be held together by compromises and relentless bargaining and conversely can be easily ruined by the truculent advocacy of sectional or religious advantage.
Attention too was given to both the 2015 election as a watershed as well as the abiding albatross of massive public sector corruption. Professor Kunle Amuwo currently of Covenant University Ota, pointed out that the political tight rope arises partly from the challenging prospects of either a Jonathan presidential victory which in the absence of negotiation could escalate the running insurgency or the equally delicate prospect of a presidential candidate of Northern origin which could lead to a resurgence of militancy in the south-south. Obviously, statesmanship which is currently in short supply is urgently needed to steer Nigeria away from self-decimation by its intemperate political class.
On corruption, and the commercialization of political offices Joseph quoted Hafsat Abiola, referred to at the beginning of this essay, to the effect that the upsurge of political contratctocracy continually pushes governance to the backwaters. The result is that Nigeria in spite of the plentitude of its natural resources continues to stay at the bottom league in terms of the quality of life of its citizens thus giving a picture that democracy does not work. In short, democracy is profitable, indeed extremely so for a tiny stratum of the political elite and their cronies but immensely improvising for the majority of Nigerians.
One of the key issues that we chewed over as the roundtable retreated to dinner is how Nigeria can survive its current almost existential challenges as well as insert developmental governance into a democracy that more often than not is not about the people.
· Olukotun is Professor of Political Science and Dean, Faculty of the Social Sciences, Lead City University, Ibadan
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