Saturday, August 9, 2014

USA Africa Dialogue Series - On the Matter of Electric Power in Nigeria {Re: [NIgerianWorldForum] RE: [africanworldforum] Re: Question of the year for Dr JUI




My People:

Let me help my friend JUI out here as a few people heckle him....and electric power in Nigeria is too important to be left to biomedics, lawyers and hecklers....  We deceive ourselves as a nation if we believe that we are going anywhere without generating adequate power.

There is no point shouting at or abusing each other over electricity needs in Nigeria - or what I prefer to energy needs.  It is NOT rocket science as such,  and while, because there always needs to be governmental policy-making, there is politics involved, it is fundamentally a technological issue rather than a political issue.

I will be brief:   for any utility, there must be:

1,   Availability:Generation  (G) [Needs assessment, Primary fuels]

2,   Accessibility: Transmission (T), Distribution (D)

3,   Affordability:  Tarriffs (Residential, Industrial, Institutional, Transport, Other)

4.   Reliability:  Technological + QoS

5.   Sustainability:   Total Revenue  vs. Cost of GTD


The most important issue is No. 4:  that the total revenue from USERS and their SUBSIDIZERS must exceed the total cost of GENERATION, TRANSMISSION and DISTRIBUTION of the utility.  One of the first problems in Nigeria is that the Government (in general the SUBSIDIZERS) do not sufficiently subsidize, and either the USERS do not wish to pay and/or the GOVERNMENT does not allow the USERS to pay to ensure that the TOTAL REVENUE exceeds costs for profit taking and for re-investment needs. GOVERNMENT POLICY MUST CLEARLY STATE THE COST OF G-T-D and COMMIT TO WHAT PERCENTAGE IT IS READY TO SUBSIDIZE AND WHAT PERCENTAGE USERS MUST PAY.


The next important issue is No. 1:  Generation.  What amount of the utility do the people need NOW, and/or will need in the future?  A correct current status and expansion needs (related to size and increase of population, technological needs) are paramount in policy.  Using ALL available primary fuels (renewable and non-renewable)  - and not abandoning difficult ones (eg coal,  nuclear)  in preference for easy ones (oil, hydro) - apportioning and working towards the generation between the fuels, and correctly assessing the technological challenge of each  - must be part of government policy.  Government repeating statements like "hitting 6,000 MW", aiming for "10,000 MW" when national needs are almost 20 times that is quite annoying. GOVERNMENT POLICY MUST CLEARLY AND CORRECTLY OUTLINE NATIONAL NEEDS AND COMMIT TO  A BROAD USE OF ALL AVAILABLE PRIMARY FUELS


The next important issue is No. 2:  Accessibility.   Only solar energy is available and accessible EVERYWHERE, from which electricity can be generated.  However, as a municipal utility, electricity must be TRANSMITTED from generating point, and DISTRIBUTED to exactly where needed in appropriate form (direct current, alternating current) and voltage (high, medium and low).  Transmission lines are the hghway of electricity and should match or exceed generation.  GOVERNMENT POLICY MUST CLEARLY ENSURE THAT TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION CAPACITIES EXCEED GENERATION CAPACITY.


The fourth important issue is No. 3: Affordability.  How much CAN the different users pay, and how much CAN THEY AFFORD to pay.  Knowing the subtle difference between these are different issues, and they depend on the economic circumstances of the users.  Providing electricity FREE to users who can afford it (to secure their popular votes, for example) should NOT be government policy.  In addition to government subsidy, an ABILITY-TO-PAY and WILLINGNESS-TO-PAY assessments should be done by government, to determine how some USERS (eg rich districts or users) can subsidize other users (eg poor districts or users), and then how government can subsidize the rest.  GOVERNMENT POLICY MUST INCLUDE TARIFF WILLINGNESS ASSESSMENTS and BOTH USER AND GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIZATION


The final important issue is No. 4:  Reliabllity - being reasonably certain that you will get the amount of the utility at the very time that you need it - that is most of the time (eg 99.9% of the time).   This affects the willingness-to-pay significantly, and attitude to fairness in tariffs.  Assuring high quality-of-service is technological and attitudinal, and requires coordination between generators, transmitters and distributers, because any one of them in the chain can mess things up.  This is where REGULATION is key.  GOVERNMENT POLICY MUST INCLUDE A STRONG REGULATORY REGIME THAT DOES NOT INVOLVE ITSELF IN ACTUAL GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION, OR EVEN TARIFF SETTING, BUT ITS GREATEST AGENDA IS RELIABILITY.

Joe Attueyi:  Present government power (or energy) policy has addressed many of the above, but has introduced a few contradictory policies, and have also not done enough homework in others, or not been bold enough in EDUCATiNG the Nigerian people on its policies.  Quite often, policies, eg the MYTO tariffs, have just be SPRUNG on the nation.....and that did not start with the GEJ regime.


And there you have it.


Bolaji Aluko
Back to monitoring Osun elections



On Sat, Aug 9, 2014 at 6:08 AM, 'Bar. Obla' via AfricanWorldForum <africanworldforum@googlegroups.com> wrote:
John Ebohon, Confused man, illiterate! Why should I waste my time reading the prejudicial rubbish you write? Why should I waste my writing reading what is written by hawk and hatchet hired by PDP to come here and lie! Why should I read what is written by congenial liar!  

Sent from my BlackBerry 10 smartphone.
From: John Ebohon ebohon@dmu.ac.uk [NIgerianWorldForum]
Sent: Saturday, 9 August 2014 05:47
To: africanworldforum@googlegroups.com; Stevek; Igietseme Joseph (CDC/OID/NCEZID); Nigerian World Forum; Bring Your Baseball Bat; Politics Naija; Ra'ayi Riga; Yan Arewa; Okonkwonetworks; Okpo Buru Na Anya; Omo Oodua; Mgbajala Eziokwu
Subject: [NIgerianWorldForum] RE: [africanworldforum] Re: Question of the year for Dr JUI

 

Pocket lawyer, Jo was asking for an alternative policy not alternative energy sources! Even my erstwhile leader Bakinzuwo, who did not claim to be a barrister fared better. You see, you read the first sentence and then fire off, and you call yourself a lawyer – where is the skill to listen and take briefs taught in law schools. Did you really read law?

 

From: africanworldforum@googlegroups.com [mailto:africanworldforum@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of okoiadvocate@gmail.com
Sent: 08 August 2014 14:26
To: africanworldforum@googlegroups.com; Stevek; Igietseme Joseph (CDC/OID/NCEZID); Nigerian World Forum; Bring Your Baseball Bat; Politics Naija; Ra'ayi Riga; Yan Arewa; Okonkwonetworks; africanworldforum@googlegroups.com; Okpo Buru Na Anya; Omo Oodua; Mgbajala Eziokwu
Subject: Re: [africanworldforum] Re: Question of the year for Dr JUI

 

There are other sources of energy including : Gas, wind, biofuel, thermal etc. 

 

From: 'topcrest topcrest' via AfricanWorldForum

Sent: Friday, 8 August 2014 08:54

To: Stevek; Igietseme Joseph (CDC/OID/NCEZID); Nigerian World Forum; Bring Your Baseball Bat; Politics Naija; Ra'ayi Riga; Yan Arewa; Okonkwonetworks; African GM; Okpo Buru Na Anya; Omo Oodua; Mgbajala Eziokwu

Subject: [africanworldforum] Re: Question of the year for Dr JUI

 

Stevek,

I have NEVER stated anywhere that I want you "biomedical scientists and lawyers - to tell you how the private companies can turn a profit on electricity production from natural gas in Nigeria?"

 

The Government has a policy for solving Nigeria's electricity problem. Rotimi ,Okoi and Dr JUI disagree with that policy —since it is neo-capitalist agbero rentier economy policy.

 

All I am asking for is their alternate policy. That is all. If you have a specific policy for solving Nigeria's electricity problem share with us. If you don't that is ok too.  No one has to be a master of all things. Even Rotimi, an engineer, and senior member of APC cannot articulate his party's policy for solving Nigeria's electricity problem. Nothing spoil

 

Joe

 

 

 

On Thursday, August 7, 2014 11:20 PM, Stevek <avatarmd10701@yahoo.com> wrote:

 

Are you really serious that you want us - biomedical scientists and lawyers - to tell you how the private companies can turn a profit on electricity production from natural gas in Nigeria? And is Osamede Edosomwan really cheering you on?

 

Now, even if we have the proper expertise to tell your friends in the business that, why would we do so on the Internet? Or you don't know that this sort of information is provided by highly expert persons at handsome remunerations?

 

I swear, you guys are jokers!

 

First Joe, the general business and engineering approach to doing this is already out there to be had. Small and poor countries all over the world have used this knowledge to provide their people with steady and affordable electricity. We don't need to provide it to you and Osamede here, even if we have the expertise. And if we were put in charge of such a project by the Nigerian government, we will easily find the expertise, even if we have to go to Slovenia or Guatemala. And we won't have to!

 

Our only concern here is your jumping in here with ill-fitting and bogus Keynesian supply side economics theory for a poverty recumbent Third World country to justify the usual rip-off proposal of Dienzani, supported by Osamede's baffling appeal to intellectualism with the ridiculous focus on profit, as a policy debate.

The problem with generating affordable and steady electricity in Nigeria is not how much it costs to acquire natural gas or to purify it but one and one thing only - galloping CORRUPTION. And JUI has provided you all the answers you need, since you have no concept of economic and moral justice; just profit.

 

If the reason was the cost of 'leaning natural gas, the money that only the Obasanjo's regime spent on this issue would have procured enough methane and sufficient plants to supply Nigeria with steady and affordable electrify for a decade! If not, we could get serious and collect that $20 billion back from Jaonathan and Diezani!

 

And there is no atom of truth in your outrageous claim that Nigeria's power generation capacity is currently stagnated because the supply of lean gas to fire the power plants is low. Who told you that? And did Dienzani tell you that the supply of lean gas is low because the ( Govt controlled) domestic market price for gas is lower than the cost of processing rich gas to lean gas? Provide the reference.

 

And, since you, mysteriously, claim to be an economist instead of a local accountant, kindly provide the basis why the price of an exported commodity be the same as its domestic price.

 

Why do you think that by stridently repeating a silly question, and in red, makes that question any less silly? This may be true for your friends in Ajegunle but you are playing with a different class here, accountant.

 

 

Stevek.

Washington, DC, USA


A society of supine lambs breeds erect wolves. - Stevek

A wise man proportions his beliefs to the evidence - David Hume

 

From: 'topcrest topcrest' via OkonkwoNetworks <okonkwonetworks@googlegroups.com>
To: Igietseme Joseph (CDC/OID/NCEZID) <jbi8@cdc.gov>; Nigerian World Forum <nigerianworldforum@yahoogroups.com>; Bring Your Baseball Bat <naijaobserver@yahoogroups.com>; Politics Naija <naijapolitics@yahoogroups.com>; Ra'ayi Riga <raayiriga@yahoogroups.com>; Yan Arewa <yanarewa@yahoogroups.com>; Okonkwonetworks <okonkwonetworks@googlegroups.com>; African GM <africanworldforum@googlegroups.com>; Okpo Buru Na Anya <igboworldforum@yahoogroups.com>; Omo Oodua <omoodua@yahoogroups.com>; Mgbajala Eziokwu <nigerianid@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, August 7, 2014 1:24 PM
Subject: Question of the year for Dr JUI

 

Folks,

Please help me get a SPECIFIC answer out of Dr JUI. The guy pretends to have all the economic theories that will solve all of Nigeria's problems. We have a practical problem on our hands:

 

PROBLEM DEFINITION

Nigeria's power generation capacity is currently stagnated because the supply of lean gas to fire the power plants is low. The supply of lean gas is low because the ( Govt controlled) domestic market price for gas is lower than the cost of processing rich gas to lean gas. The Govt proposes to resolve this by increasing the controlled price for domestic gas from $1.5 to $2.5. While this will create the enabling environment for gas companies to produce and process gas, the higher cost of gas will ultimately mean a higher price for electricity (though still lower than the generator produced electricity)

 

Can you Sir share with us what your alternative policy proposal is for solving this problem.

 

Joe

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