USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fw: NIGERIA AT 54: AVERTING GROW-WORSE SCENARIOS

Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless handheld from Glo Mobile.

-----Original Message-----
From: maggie anaeto <maganaeto@yahoo.co.uk>
Date: Fri, 3 Oct 2014 06:29:57
To: <ayo_olukotun@yahoo.com>
Subject: NIGERIA AT 54: AVERTING GROW-WORSE SCENARIOS

NIGERIA AT 54: AVERTING GROW-WORSE SCENARIOS

Ayo Olukotun

To the extent that a huge population, size and resource endowments are omens of greatness, Nigeria was born great. But it was burdened with an ante-natal heart disease, slightly alluded to in her first national anthem which talked about "tribes and tongues" differing. Ethnicity, language, worship not only differed they often clashed violently.
Former Minister of External Affairs, Professor Ishaya Audu rendered the Nigeria dilemma evocatively when he likened the country to the flowing Hausa attire Babanringa. You adjust it on the left, Audu once joked, only to discover soon after, that the garment has come down on the right flapping in the winds and begging for collation. The perpetual balancing acts, hard headed compromises and trade-offs needed to keep the sprawling and diverse nation state going led political scientist, Billy Dudley to propound his "Inevitability of Instability" thesis many years ago. Senate President, David Mark put a contemporary gloss on this conundrum when he said last week that "Nigeria is at war" explaining that what is going on with regards to the Boko Haram challenge is little different from if Nigeria had been invaded by another country.
In the same vein, President Goodluck Jonathan in his Independence Day Address, devoted a substantial portion to the travails of a nation facing fundamental security challenges. Almost louder than the speech is the fact that for the fourth year running, the anniversary was marked indoors within the precincts of the heavily fortified Aso Rock villa. In the context of the 2015 elections and given the never ending contentions over power sharing it is important to prevent a worse case scenario of the intensification of conflict and militancy around the coveted pie namely the presidency. Jonathan in Wednesday's anniversary speech struck the right tone by extending the olive branch to all aggrieved persons inviting them to the round table for dialogue. Beyond this however, is the need to prevent escalation of underlying antagonisms which may occur if for example the 2015 elections were botched or swindled.
The Independent Electoral Commission's recent showing in the last two gubernatorial elections as well as Senate's order to INEC to jettison the proposed controversial additional polling units give cause for optimism. Anecdotally, it is instructive that in the heat of Osun gubernatorial election Chairman of INEC, Professor Atahiru Jega was said to have sent word round to INEC officials that his credibility and that of the nation depended on holding a fair and credible election. If such gravitas and clarity of purpose are carried into the imminent elections, the country will stave off a possible decent into the kind of mayhem that can torpedo the boat.
Fundamentally, however, the maintenance of national security will be indexed by strategies of political and social inclusiveness, prioritisation of human security which speaks to good governance and the welfare of the citizenry as well as the reform of security institutions. Talking about social inclusiveness, it must be factored that Nigeria's rapidly growing population projected to surpass that of the United States by 2050 presents a real challenge especially in the light of the youth bulge. Governments will be tasked to their wits to be a step ahead of challenges posed by the spectre of hordes of youths roaming the cities and countryside bereft of decent livelihood. It is necessary therefore to undertake imaginative programmes not just of rehabilitation but of far flung employment creation to address the social crisis.
In this respect, the presidential initiative for the North East and Jonathan's promise to create 3 million jobs annually show recognition of the enormous challenge. The fulfilment of such promises however is very much a function of the ability to drive ongoing reforms in the agricultural sector, the diversification of the economy away from its oil dependent strait jacket and the weaning of Nigerians away from a mentality that privileges easy money over hard work.
Still on youth explosion, the creation of 14 new federal universities and licensing of several private ones attempt to spread educational opportunities across the nation's geo-polity. Such policies while obeying a federalist logic will need to be complemented by an overdue emphasis on the quality of education. To bring the point home, South Africa by contrast has less than 25 universities with most of them recognised globally and several located at the cutting edge of contemporary academic developments. As a nation, we have too often emphasized quantity at the expense of quality; size at the expense of worth. For example, we make much of the fact we are now Africa's largest economy and the world 26th largest economy following the rebasing of our GDP. This is an interesting fact. But a focus on quality will investigate the quality of life enjoyed by most Nigerians, physical and human security as well as issues of economic justice. Conceivably,
Nigeria may continue in the next decade or so to witness economic growth and in the absence or a catastrophic drop in the price of oil may enjoy a modicum of economic prosperity. Nonetheless, unless such prosperity is more evenly diffused and the quality of life marked up it will continue to face the threat of social upheavals that will throw the entire arrangement into violent disrepair.
Similarly and to connect this with education, we have a paradox of multiplying institutions, degrees and diplomas accompanied by a remarkable downslide in the competencies and knowledge acquired. A colleague narrated his experience when he was invited recently to the prize giving day of one of our better known polytechnics. "Seating next to me on the high table was a gentleman who was introduced as the head of mass communication department. The man had barely uttered five sentences when I roared within me that: if this is the head of mass communication department then this country is in trouble." In other words, even as we grow the rot continues to accumulate.
Do you want to consider the regression of values and orderly comportment in our politics? The sacking of court judges and the brutal manhandling of a judge whose robe was torn to shreds in Ekiti recently signify how rapidly downhill we have plumbed. Someday, at this rate, an influential motor park tout will be elected into office and all hell will break loose unless somehow we can reverse the current siege on decency and edifying political values.
If there are reformists within the major political parties, they should be worrying aloud about the wizened face of the country that we are bequeathing to future generations. A different side of the same narrative was aired by a middle-aged Nigerian professional. Reminisced he: "When I was growing up, I was shouting Up NEPA (referring to those precious intervals when electricity is restored.) My children are also growing up, shouting Up NEPA. I can only hope that my grand children will not have this refrain in their mouths."
To conclude on a cheerful note, the resilient Nigerian spirit and the experiences accumulated in 54 years should stand us in good stead and give us more triumphs such as the recent surmounting of the Ebola Virus Disease in the years to come.

Prof Olukotun is Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences and Entrepreneurial Studies at Lead City University, Ibadan. ayo_olukotun@yahoo.com 07055841236

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the "USA-Africa Dialogue Series" moderated by Toyin Falola, University of Texas at Austin.
For current archives, visit http://groups.google.com/group/USAAfricaDialogue
For previous archives, visit http://www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa/ads/index.html
To post to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue-
unsubscribe@googlegroups.com
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "USA Africa Dialogue Series" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to usaafricadialogue+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.