Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fwd: FRIDAY ESSAY: On the Matter of Political Predictive Punditry in the Upcoming 2015 Presidential Elections {Re: The 2015 Election Bounty Is Not Being Shared

Bolaji

Thanks for reposting your summaries of

the results from the 2011 Presidential elections 

which I believe fully reflected the voting intentions

of the Nigerian electorate. What ever degree of electoral

malpractices that occurred in 2011 would

have had only a negligible effect and would

not have substantially changed the results.

What factors have changed or could have changed in the

period between 2011 and 2015 that could potentially alter

the results in 2015?

1) GEJ is no longer a novelty whose potential

is unknown to the Nigerian electorate.

2) the consolidation of the ACN, the CPC

and some elements of APGA into the APC

3) the defections of some PDP governors and legislators

to the APC

4) the incursion of the Labour Party in Ondo

State and the retaking of Ekiti state by the PDP

which have altered the perception of the SW

being solidly a fiefdom of the former ACN (now APC)

5) The Rotimi Amaechi factor in Rivers state, the

most populated state in the SS and the import

of his defection from the PDP to the APC.

6) The Oshiomoble factor in Edo state and

7) The Boko Haram Factor which may prevent elections

from taking place in three Northeastern states?

What factors might change that could potentially

have a major impact on the results of the 2015

Elections?

1) Voter turn out in the SW.

In 2011 the Voter turn out in the SW was only 32.9% compared to

66.9% and 67% in the SE and SS respectively and 52%

National Average. This means that assuming

that there has been no hindrance to Voter Registration in the SW

in the preparation for the 2015 elections , there is a greater potential for a major increase

in the voter turnout in the SW than in the SE

and the SS which are the GEJ strongholds.

2) It is unlikely that GEJ would carry the SW

with as much majority as he did in 2011 even

he manages to win or equal Buhari's votes in this  pivotal region where the elections will be decided. This is a highly unlikely scenario

as I truly believe that GEJ is toast in the SW

due mainly to the OBJ factor and the fact that 

most of the people running his campaign

in the SW e.g. Bode George and Kashamu

lack significant credibility amongst the

electorate.

3) Even though GEJ would likely still win the majority

of the votes in the SS he would do so with much reduced

majority as he would lose significant votes in Rivers and Edo

states due respectively to the Rotimi Amaechi

and Oshiomoble factors in Rivers and Edo states.

4) Buhari will lose some edge in the three northeastern states

Borno, Yobe and Gombe where elections may not hold due to

the Boko Haram crisis.

In the end the Elections will be won by the candidate

and the political party that are able to most effectively mobilize their 

supporters to turn out and vote on Election Day!

I still believe that barring some known unknowns and

many more unknown unknowns that Buhari will win the

Presidential Elections by a small margin by mthe time all the votes

are counted.

 Buhari will make up for the loss

of the edge in voter support he would suffer due to the

cancellation or postponement of the elections

in the three Boko Haram infested NE states by

gaining massive support in the SW especially 

if there is a substantial increase in voter support

in this region and through making some in roads

into the SS (Rivers and Edo states) and through increased

support in the NW.

The only geo-political zone in Nigeria that can be

considered exclusively as a GEJ stronghold is the SE.

Bye,

Ola

Sent from my iPhone

On Jan 16, 2015, at 1:34 AM, Mobolaji Aluko <alukome@gmail.com> wrote:

 

My People:

Season's greetings to all of una!

We are in that silly political season, and invariably coming with it is political predictive punditry of all shapes and sizes, with all its pretense objectivity and subjectivity.

I have strategically opted out of such predictive punditry this election round, and left it to people like Ben Obi Aduba and Ikenna Okonkowo.....

Yes, Aduba's analysis apart, there is Ikenna Okonkwo's interesting analysis below, which can be encapsulated under the paragraph:

QUOTE

"BUHARI'S BIGGEST PROBLEM IS WITH THE NORTH and you begin to wonder when they say that - NORTH WANTS POWER BACK, who are those in the NORTH that really wants power back, MAYBE JUST a very few AND NOT TOO INFLUENTIAL GROUPS."

UNQUOTE

Unfortunately, Ikenna's analysis is too QUALITATIVE for me to make too much of it. I simply just don't know how to QUANTITATIVELY process statements like:

   *PDP will win with a very high margin, very low figure for APC

   * PDP will win with a low margin over APC

  * APC will win with a very low margin

  *  The votes will be shared

  * PDP WINNING STATES = 16

 

  * APC WINNING STATES = 9

 

  * PDP/APC SHARED STATES = 12

  * TOTAL = 37 

Consequently, the entire value of his prediction is simply placed on the possible outcome of GEJ once again beating GMB, which is quite strongly possible, despite all the APC hoopla,  or on the other hand may not be the ultimate outcome, despite all the PDP hoopla.

Since this is the second time that these two politicians are meeting - the last time being just four years ago, in 2011 - it looks as if it would be better to start with that year's results, and then on a state or geo-zonal basis, outline why, four years later what happened last time would or would not happen, and by how much.  Then we might start being a little bit more quantitative, rather than being so hand-wavy.

I present below an example set of results from 2011 that I summarized then, that might be helpful.  Note that in 2015, there is no strong third political party like there was in 2011.

Best wishes always...and there you have it.

Bolaji Aluko

______________________________________________________________________________________

Update # 8 - Nigeria's 2011 Presidential Election (April 16) Results - By Geopolitical Zone and By Political Parties

---

Mobolaji ALUKO <alukome@gmail.com>	Tue, Apr 19, 2011 at 10:52 AM
To: USAAfrica Dialogue <USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com>
TABLE 1: NIGERIA'S  2011 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (APRIL 16) RESULTS  BY GEOPOLITICAL ZONES     Compiled in present form by Nigerianmuse.com April 18, 2011                          STATE PDP CPC ACN Total All 20 Political Parties Final   Reg'   Figure (March '11)   A Voter Turnout Jonathan Buhari Ribadu         GEO-POLITICAL SUMMARIES               SOUTH-WEST 2,786,417 321,609 1,369,943 4,613,712 14,296,163 32.3%   SOUTH-EAST 4,985,246 20,335 25,517 5,072,321 7,577,212 66.9%   SOUTH-SOUTH 6,118,608 49,978 144,141 6,351,116 9,474,427 67.0%   TOTAL  SOUTH 13,890,271 391,922 1,539,601 16,290,593 31,347,802 52.0%                                   NORTH-WEST  3,395,724 6,453,437 146,216 10,800,075 19,803,689 54.5%   NORTH-EAST 1,832,622 3,624,919 84,273 5,826,645 10,749,059 54.2%   NORTH-CENTRAL 3,123,126 1,612,999 306,684 5,149,056 10,684,017 48.2%   TOTAL NORTH 8,351,472 11,691,355 537,173 21,775,776 41,236,765 52.8%                                   TOTAL FCT 253,444 131,576 2,327 398,094 943,473   42.2%                   TOTAL COUNTRY 22,495,187 12,214,853 2,079,101 38,464,463 73,528,040 52.3%                   REGIONAL SUMMARIES               SOUTH 13,890,271 391,922 1,539,601 16,290,593 31,347,802 52.0%   NORTH 8,351,472 11,691,355 537,173 21,775,776 41,236,765 52.8%   FCT 253,444 131,576 2,327 398,094 943,473   42.2%   TOTAL COUNTRY 22,495,187 12,214,853 2,079,101 38,464,463 73,528,040 52.3%                   TABLE 2: NIGERIA'S  2011 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (APRIL 16) RESULTS  BY   POLITICAL PARTIES   http://www.inecnigeria.org/results/   S/N Party Candidate Votes Percentage Of Total 1 PDP Jonathan 22,495,187 58.89% 2 CPC Buhari 12,214,853 31.98% 3 ACN Ribadu 2,079,151 5.41% 4 ANPP Shekarau 917,012 2.40%   Subtotal (4 Parties)   37,706,203 98.68%         5 PDC Waziri 82,243 0.21% 6 PMP Nwadike 56,248 0.15% 7 PPP Aroh 54,203 0.14% 8 ADC Nwangwu 51,682 0.14% 9 BNPP Nnaji 47,272 0.12% 10 FRESH Okotie 34,331 0.09% 11 NCP Momodu 26,376 0.07% 12 NMDP Akpona 25,938 0.07% 13 APS Adedoyin 23,740 0.06% 14 UNPD Ndok 21,203 0.06% 15 NTP Dara 19,744 0.05% 16 MPPP Shitta-Bey 16,492 0.04% 17 ARP Ndu 12,264 0.03% 18 HDP Owuru 12,023 0.03% 19 SDMP Utomi 11,544 0.03% 20 LDPN Nwaokobia 8,472 0.02%   Subtotal (16 Parties)   503,775 1.31%       TOTAL   38,209,978 99.99%

 

On Thu, Jan 15, 2015 at 2:18 PM, afis <odidere2012@gmail.com> wrote:

Dr Ozodi Osuji is right on the money. I have tried to convince our brother Mazi Aduba, that his political analyses are too elementary and laughable.

If all things equalled out, and no rigging is allowed, Buhari will win upper North two zones. Buhari will win Southwest convincingly. Buhari will win Kwara and Kogi and Niger. Buhari will win Edo and Rivers with a struggle. 

Now remains Delta, Bayelsa, Cross Rivers in the Ssouth, honestly I am out to sea on those ones, but I will say Jonathan may win those including Cash-and-carry Southeast.

In my view, toss ups are the Christian areas in the Middlebelt. 

I doubt if Buhari can win those states except Kaduna.

As you pointed out, candidates don't waste resources on the Diehards.

The majority of Igbos are in the Sewer with Jonathan, that's a given. However, one can change minds in Igboland if the Dough is right.

Unlike the Southeast, the upper North live on the Al Qur'an. 

Most middle and low class northerners are not as money focused as the Igbos, they believe more in the Islamic way of life. If you place a Goat named Al Mustafa on the ballot against a Southern Christian, Al Mustafa the Goat will win in the upper north.

The Upper North and Kwara, and Niger are more solid for Buhari, than Southeast Cash-and-Carry is for Jonathan.

The Southwest Majority, like I have always pointed out, won't vote for PDP this time round.

The 1999 to 2011 elections were rigged by PDP. 

They must be monitored and the whole country must resist Jonathan's Fake Army (Ijaw terrorists).

Shikena 

Afis

On Thursday, January 15, 2015, ozodi osuji <ozodiosuji@gmail.com> wrote:

Mr. Aduba:



      I am beginning to worry about you, honestly; are you okay? Why
do you keep dishing out all this rubbish in the nature of election
commentary? Who exactly is your audience, the brain-dead?

       Listen up. I live in Alaska. Alaska is a Republican country.
Republicans always win in Alaska. Why? Racists from the southern
states seeking a place to run to where there are no "niggers" ran to
Alaska (Alaska is over 85% white, the rest are native Eskimos and
Athabaskan Indians, about 1.6% black). If you leave the safety of
Anchorage and drive, say, fifty miles inland you are likely to run
into white hillbillies, rednecks, the type that assume that all "them
niggers" are criminals and they are ready to shoot you to death, no
questions asked.

      The point is that because Alaska is Republican  territory
everybody takes the damn place, a place that would encompass all
Eastern and Southern states, yes, Alaska is  one fifth the size of the
USA, for granted and do not campaign here. Why bother campaigning? If
you are a Republican and campaign folks would come to listen and you
would be singing to the choir. If you are a Democrat, don't even
bother for no one is coming to hear you (please do not tell me that
Mark Begich was a Democrat, see how long he lasted in office!).

        What is the point to all these? The North is solidly behind
Buhari and you know it. Politicians do not contest where the contest
is settled.

        You are about to find out how Jonathan is not appreciated in
the North soon enough. The East is really were there is electioneering
going on for daft Igbos do not want to move with the wind and still
support the do nothing Jonathan.

        Here is something for you to chew on: Buhari will win Rivers
state, Bayless state, Edo state, Delta state but lose the South East
states. Buhari will win the Yoruba and Hausa states.

      According to the latest data on registered voters released today
by INEC about 68.8 million Nigerians are eligible to vote come
february. Out of that number half are in the North, another quarter is
in the South West.

      Igbos are about 15 million of the total number of registered
voters. So even if all Igbos vote for Jonathan he is toast.  This is
the reality on the ground. Deal with it and stop torturing your mind
with all these trite election commentaries that sway no one to your
side.

       Please do all of us a favor already: stop your pretended
objectivity and just tell your readers to vote for Jonathan and tell
them why they should vote for him, tell them what he accomplished for
the country. Nigerians have reached a state in their political
maturation that appeal to tribe and fear of Islam may no longer be
enough to convince folks to vote for a non performing clown like
Jonathan.

       Please note that both Islam and Christianity are imported
religions; they are not African religions; in so far that one is an
African nationalist one must seek out African religions.

       I have been reading up on Yoruba religion and will soon do a
paper on it; I will do a paper to educate folks about the Orishas
(whom Sango is a manifestation).

       Since the Orishas are messengers from Olodumere/Olorun, God,
those who bring knowledge to human beings and my village is called
Umu-Orisha you draw the necessary conclusion of who we are.

      Add the fact that my kindred are Umu-Amadioha, the high priests
of Amadioha and you get the message.

      By the way, how come there are substantial people in Brazil,
Cuba and Latin America in general who practice Yoruba religion but not
Igbo religion?


Ozodi Osuji

A proud African religionist

On Wed, Jan 14, 2015 at 6:09 PM, Baduba54 <baduba54@aol.com> wrote:
> The 2015 Election Bounty Is Not Being Shared
> It has been alleged that the 2015 expenditures for the 2015 Nigerian
> elections would be about N20 billion. This is a significant amount however
> one looks at it. But are all parts of the country getting the benefits of
> this expenditure? The more important question is why is the North's vote not
> being asked? Why is the election fever not being felt in the North?
> When a presidential candidate visits a state or city, business men and
> women, small and big make out rather well. It is tourist bonanza. Hotel
> rooms are sold out; taxi drivers increase their fare and work overtime;
> restaurants get big boosts; "mama put" vendors make out like bandits; even
> street walkers walk with swagger as they cart away their loot. The biggest
> winners may be the politicians whose support are traded. APC buys their
> support and PDP tries to outbid the APC offer and vice versa. Even
> traditional rulers get big rewards for an honorary chieftaincy title. This
> happened/is happening in SW, SS and SE zones. Nothing is happening in the
> North. If all the N21 billion is spent in the South it will make a big
> difference in the economy. Nigerian politicians must find out a way to
> spread the goodies in both the North and the South.
> APC's national convention was held in Lagos, a big southern city, and that
> made Lagos commerce sizzle even more than it used to. PDP's convention was
> held in Abuja which is technically north but which is actually a neutral
> ground as it is a meeting place for true North and true South. Abuja
> commerce like Lagos commerce was a beneficiary of this large gathering of
> loaded men and women. One can therefore conclude that up to this time the
> North has not seen a kobo of the election expenditure.
> As big as N21 billion is the bigger thing is the awareness that new rulers
> are about to be chosen for Nigeria. Every Nigerian ought to know about it
> and where possible express their views either by showing up at the rallies
> or by doing a hefty business that would remind him of 2015. In the above
> paragraph I advised politicians to take their campaigns up north also. But I
> am aware of the reasons why both GMB and GEJ have not done so. A GEJ
> campaign bus was set on fire somewhere in the north and this was without the
> president's presence. It could be interpreted as a warning to GEJ not to
> come up here. GMB who hails from the North has not campaigned there either.
> Both may eventually head north but I am sure that both candidates are aware
> of the risk they may be exposing their fellow citizens to by assembling a
> large crowd for campaigns. Terrorists love crowds as we have seen churches,
> markets, mosques, etc., bombed with deaths numbering up to several hundreds.
> GEJ has stated that his election is not worth a loss of a single Nigerian
> life. GMB I suppose has similar feelings.
> What to do?
> A door-to-door campaign might be the way out. Canvassers could be asked to
> knock on every northern door and pass out literature mostly in Hausa
> language. Lesser known politicians like mayors of LGA could act as
> surrogates to GEJ and GMB and campaign in small local areas. They could
> campaign on matters that affect the local areas only. TV and radio could
> become the media for reaching urban populations and discussing national
> issues. A few public debates could be another means of reaching northern
> voters in the absence of town hall type campaigning. These suggestions are
> not exhaustive but could point out to the candidates that they must ask for
> the votes of our northern citizens and not take them for granted. A no
> campaign possibility in the North would benefit GMB more because it appears
> that he may be seen in a more favorable light than GEJ.
> It is important that the spending for the elections be shared fairly among
> Nigerian states and that our politicians seek the votes of all Nigerians.
> There are obstacles but serious efforts ought to be made to include the
> north in the mood of the country. This effort should be made before a second
> round of campaigns in the south.
> Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba
> Boston, Massachusetts
> January 14, 2015

-- 

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Having followed elections in Nigeria for so many years, many people will keep on saying - IS OUR MAN WILL WIN OR NO IT IS OUR MAN WILL WIN, but without having an IN DEPTH analysis of how the votes will go. Contrary to the Opinion that the ELECTION will be won and lost in the WESTERN NIGERIA - YORUBA TRIBE, it is not going to be so and have never been so, BUHARI'S BIGGEST PROBLEM which many of his LIP SERVICE SUPPORTERS do not know is that BUHARI'S BIGGEST PROBLEM IS WITH THE NORTH and you begin to wonder when they say that - NORTH WANTS POWER BACK, who are those in the NORTH that really wants power back, MAYBE JUST a very few AND NOT TOO INFLUENTIAL GROUPS.

Most of the APC strong hold of the North - Borno, Yobe and Adamawa are already under SIEGE and even if voters will come out to vote, they will be very small and the votes will also be shared between PDP and APC. I don't know how many are thinking in that direction. PDP votes in CROSS RIVER AND AKWA-IBOM  alone will counter 6 states of the North East, how many of us are thinking in that direction. THE PRESENT CONDITION OF NORTH NOW IN TERMS OF UNREST AND INSURGENCY is to the advantage of PDP and I don't know if APC people are in tune with this. JIGAWA STATE AND NIGER STATE IS A VERY BIG PROBLEM FOR APC. How many people do know about that.

So in summary, as good as BUHARI AND CORRUPT FREE he may sound, if the statistics below is anything to go by YOU WILL SEE THAT FOR BUHARI TO WIN IN FEBRUARY THAT IT WOULD BE LIKE THE BIBLICAL EXPRESSION of RICH MAN entering heaven and camel passing through the eye of a needle.

WE NEED TO BE THINKING AND GUIDED ON STATISTICS below for all BUHARI SUPPORTERS. STRATEGIES should also be on HOW TO COUNTER THESE STATISTICS and not to be boxing on the pages of newspaper and INTERNET.

Thanks and kind regards,

Ikenna.

HOW THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS WILL LIKELY GO IN FEBRUARY 2015 AS PERMUTED BY ENGR. IKENNA OKONKWO

 

S/N	STATE	GEO POLITICAL ZONE	FAVORED PARTY	REMARKS
1	ABIA	SOUTH EAST	PDP	PDP will win with a very high margin, very low figure for APC
2	ANAMBRA	SOUTHEAST	PDP	PDP will win with a very high margin, very low figure for APC
3	EBONYI	SOUTHEAST	PDP	PDP will win with a very high margin, very low figure for APC
4	ENUGU	SOUTHEAST	PDP	PDP will win with a very high margin, very low figure for APC
5	IMO	SOUTHEAST	PDP/APC	The votes will be shared
6	CROSS RIVER	SOUTH -  SOUTH	PDP	PDP will win with a very high margin, very low figure for APC
7	AKWA-IBOM	SOUTH -  SOUTH	PDP	PDP will win with a very high margin, very low figure for APC
8	RIVERS	SOUTH -  SOUTH	PDP	PDP will win with a very high margin, very low figure for APC
9	BAYELSA	SOUTH -  SOUTH	PDP	PDP will win with a very high margin, very low figure for APC
10	DELTA	SOUTH  - SOUTH	PDP	PDP will win with a very high margin, very low figure for APC
11	EDO	SOUTH  - SOUTH	PDP/APC	The votes will be shared
12	LAGOS	SOUTH - WEST	PDP/APC	The votes will be shared
13	OGUN	SOUTH - WEST	APC	APC will win with a very low margin
14	OYO	SOUTH - WEST	APC	APC will win with a very low margin
15	OSUN	SOUTH - WEST	APC	APC will win with a very low margin
16	ONDO	SOUTH - WEST	PDP/APC	The votes will be shared
17	EKITI	SOUTH - WEST	PDP/APC	The votes will be shared
18	BENUE	NORTH CENTRAL	PDP	PDP will win with a very high margin, very low figure for APC
19	NASARAW A	NORTH CENTRAL	APC/PDP	The votes will be shared
20	PLATEAU	NORTH CENTRAL	PDP	PDP will win with a very high margin, very low figure for APC
21	KOGI	NORTH CENTRAL	PDP	PDP will win with a very high margin, very low figure for APC
22	KWARA	NORTH CENTRAL	APC	APC will win with a low margin to PDP
23	FCT	NORTH CENTRAL	PDP	PDP will win with a very high margin, very low figure for APC
24	BORNO	NORTH EAST	APC	APC will win with a low figure as fewer voter turnout will be recorded
25	YOBE	NORTH EAST	APC	APC will win with a low figure as fewer voter turnout will be recorded
26	ADAMAWA	NORTH EAST	PDP/APC	The vote will be shared with low figures
27	BAUCHI	NORTH EAST	PDP/APC	The vote will be shared
28	GOMBE	NORTH EAST	PDP/APC	The vote will be shared
29	TARABA	NORTH EAST	PDP	PDP will win with a very high margin, very low figure for APC
30	KEBBI	NORTH WEST	PDP/APC	The vote will be shared
31	SOKOTO	NORTH WEST	APC	APC will win but with a low gap
32	ZAMFARA	NORTH WEST	APC	APC will win but with a low gap
33	NIGER	NORTH WEST	PDP	PDP will win with a low margin over APC
34	JIGAWA	NORTH WEST	PDP	PDP will win with a very high margin, very low figure for APC
35	KANO	NORTH WEST	PDP/APC	The votes will be shared
36	KADUNA	NORTH WEST	PDP/APC	The votes will be shared
37	KATSINA	NORTH WEST	APC	APC will win but with a low gap to PDP

 

 

PDP WINNING STATES = 16

 

APC WINNING STATES = 9

 

PDP/APC SHARED STATES = 12

TOTAL = 37 

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