Embracing the Sustainable Development Goals for Sustainable Development in Africa
Hippolyte Fofack[1]
African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank)
January 5, 2015
As the world approaches the 2015 deadline for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) adopted at the turn of the millennium to enhance development effectiveness and increase emphasis on results the international community has been working actively to come up with a new framework that will inform the development process beyond 2015. Although post-2015 consultations are still ongoing, the contour of the new framework is increasingly dominated by sustainability on the development path. Hence the prospective successor of MDGs is now commonly referred to as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)—understood as always striving to meet the needs of current and future generations in the pursuit of every single development goal.
Case for sustainable Development: The shift towards SDGs as the new development framework is partly motivated by the increasing human and social costs of unsustainable consumption and production patterns adopted by the majority of countries, especially the more advanced economies since the industrial revolution and, more recently, emerging market economies. In effect, the continued quest for economic growth and output expansion, fuelled by increased intensity of greenhouse gas emissions in the more industrialized economies, is exacerbating the risks of global warming with inherently adverse effects disproportionately affecting low-income countries and small island states which lack the resources and technology for effective climate change adaptation. Ringing the alarm bell on the magnitude of risks facing these countries the Inter-Academy Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has established that poor access to technology will make existing climate change adaptation strategies insufficient for their survival in the context of predicted environmental changes during the 21st century.[2]
In effect, the negative externalities of these unsustainable development models are already significant in Africa. They have been felt in declining yields in the agricultural sector and rising food import bills as a result of excess vulnerability to climate shocks (agriculture which remains largely rain-fed has been highly vulnerable to drought); involuntary migration most notably illustrated by rapid urbanization which is magnifying the congestion for the limited stock of urban infrastructure and placing further stress on basic urban services; increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods which are exacerbating the spread of vector and waterborne diseases. For example, the Eastern and Southern Africa highlands that were not exposed to malaria are increasingly at risk as a consequence of rising temperature.
Another risk associated with unsustainable development models inherited from the industrial revolution, which set the world on a production stream largely fuelled by the much-celebrated combustion engine, is that of reversibility on the growth and development path. Economic crises are more likely under these models, as we have witnessed over the years with the successive series of economic cycles whereby booms are systematically followed by busts. More recently and for further illustration, the 2007 Great Recession wiped out household assets and wealth accumulated during the long-run growth cycle enjoyed by advanced and emerging market economies during the globalization era.
In the USA, newly released estimates from the Federal Reserve's 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances published every three years showed that the 2007 Recession hurled incomes all the way back to the late 1980s, with median income falling by more than 12 percent, from US$53,100 in 2007 to about US$46,700 in 2013. In Africa, where growth performance was already dismal in the years preceding the countries' access to debt relief under the Highly-Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) initiative, the Great Recession reversed post-HIPC gains, slowing down economic growth and increasing poverty rates.[3] The IMF estimated that average economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa slowed from an average of about 6.5% annually between 2002 and 2007—a historic high and contrast from pre-HIPC growth tragedy—to 2.8% in 2009, before recovering to about 5.3 in 2010.[4] Naturally that growth deceleration dampened prospects for reducing poverty, as at least 7% annual growth is generally considered necessary for outpacing population growth and making a dent in alleviating poverty and unemployment.[5]
Against this backdrop, and as increasingly informed by science, the world is putting a lot of faith in Sustainable development—a time-invariant generous and environmentally conscious concept that seeks to reconcile the constant drive to meet the short-term development needs of the current generation with expectations and aspirations of future generations. Inter-temporally, development is sustainable when it ensures that the means of production adopted by the current generation to meet their aspirations to continuously improve their living standards are not used in a way that compromises the ability of future generations to meet theirs. Implicitly, it recognizes that the resources available are not unlimited or inexhaustible, and hence, advocates for development models that take into account inter-temporal considerations in the process of resource allocation and use and promotes the adoption of sustainable consumption patterns and production processes.
SDGs and sustainable development in Africa: Post-2015 consultations have already identified 17 Sustainable Development Goals, significantly more than the 8 underpinning the MDG framework. That initial set may be brought down to a more manageable number between now and their formal adoption by the international community and world leaders expected later this year. Regardless of the total number of these goals, it is important to stress that achieving sustainable development is going to be more complex and challenging than achieving the MDGs. In effect replacing "M" by "S" in the foregoing MDG framework is not going to be a mere international exercise at perfecting substitution. If there is one instance where one letter of the alphabet is set to have significant implications for the international development community it ought to be this one. The transition from MDG to SDG and rise of sustainability in the development discourse is set to fundamentally transform the development landscape.
Under the new framework, the world will no longer confine the concept and practice of development to a limited time span, but inscribe it over an infinite time horizon to ensure continuity on the sustainable development path across generations—a major departure from conventional wisdom in which short-term development horizon became a substitute for medium- to long-term development planning under the neo-liberal ideology. More than expanding the total number of development goals, the SDG framework primarily emphasizes mutual accountability in the management and ownership of resources offered by the planet across space and over time. In other words, and as the overarching priority, the sustainability of every single one of the new SDGs will depend on the commitment of all countries to align development policies and programs to meet the growing challenges of climate change.
To further illustrate this point, let's take SDG 1—End poverty in all its forms everywhere: while the MDG framework emphasizes full employment and expansion of income-generating activities, the prospective SDG framework is inter-generationally conscious, in that it emphasizes irreversibility on the development path and sustainability of poverty reduction across generations (in addition to increasing opportunities for access to productive employment). In particular, it specifically calls on countries to enhance the resilience of the poor and vulnerable groups to reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic and social shocks. In other words, the new framework is also promoting a development model that will mitigate the recurrent risks of economic crises like the 2007 Great Recession.
In addition to SDG 13: "Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts", the concept of sustainability cuts across and underlines every single goal under the proposed SDG framework. It is particularly emphasized in areas of critical importance for African development. For instance, to achieve SDG 2—"Ending hunger by 2030", the new framework calls on governments to ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that helps maintain ecosystems, and strengthen the capacity for adaptation to climate change. Similarly, achieving SDG 8: "Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all", is predicated on increased levels of productivity through economic diversification and increased value addition, technological progress and innovation. In the same vein, to achieve SDG 9: "Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation", the new framework calls for promoting inclusive and sustainable industrialization and significantly raising industry's share of employment in GDP by 2030.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, where most jobs created over the last few decades have come from inefficient and productivity-reducing informal sector activities, (mostly dominated by household enterprises specialized in the distribution of imported manufactured goods) largely as a result of de-industrialization and chronic deficit of structural transformation, both of which have maintained the colonial production model linking Africa to the rest of the world as exporter of natural resources and importer of manufactured goods, this new framework should be welcomed. It is consistent with the recommendations of the Lagos Plan of Action adopted by African Head of States in the 1980s. In particular, Article 52 of that Plan called upon member states to give a major role to industrialization to deepen intra-regional trade and enhance the integration of African countries into the global economy. To this end, and in order for Africa to achieve a greater share of world industrial production, member states proclaimed the 1980 to 1990 period the Industrial Development Decade in Africa.[6]
Despite the potential benefits of industry-led growth for sustainable development and effective integration into the global economy increasingly dominated by manufactured goods, the development policies articulated in the Lagos Plan of Action were not followed by concrete steps at the policy level to ensure their full implementation. In part, that failure was due to a lack of commitment of African leaders, but also to the implementation of fiscal austerity measures which curtailed the expansion of public investments, with pernicious effects on growth during the adjustment era. Against such a lousy implementation record, why should anyone, even the most enthusiastic African development champions, suddenly believe that African countries will be successful at implementing programs that have eluded them for decades?
Indeed, very few African countries are slated to attain the MDGs which had 2015 as the target year, even though they are significantly less complex and challenging than the emerging SDGs which are more interconnected and highly technology-intensive.[7] For instance, if we take MDG 1: Eradicating Extreme Poverty, while performance in East Asia has been impressive, with most countries exceeding that goal, very few countries are on track in Sub-Saharan Africa where poverty remains widespread. Furthermore, projections suggest that the Sub-Saharan Africa region will account for more than 77 percent of the world's poor by 2030, when world leaders reconvene another global summit to assess progress against agreed SDG targets.[8]
Global compact for SDGs: Clearly, if there is one lesson learned, it is that setting development goals is much easier than achieving them in the development space at national levels. Increasing development effectiveness and impact under the new SDG framework will require that Sub-Saharan African countries learn more from successful nations, specifically how to effectively align public policies and programs, public and private sector interventions in order to sustainably achieve the desired development goals. This should be the first and overarching priority, moving forward for African countries. Records show that both advanced and emerging market economies on track to meet the MDGs enjoyed strong economic growth, good policies and effective institutions for shared prosperity and political stability. They also had highly diversified economies with a strong manufacturing base for sustained growth of labor-intensive employment opportunities and earnings, and for effective mitigation of terms of trade and other exogenous shocks.
Reflecting the highly interconnected nature of the proposed SDGs and their emphasis on results, the second set of priorities for African countries on the implementation space should relate to fostering cross-sectoral partnerships to address the multiple dimensions of sustainable development. Operationally, this will imply moving away from the one-dimensional approach to project design to embrace a multidimensional—and sectoral approach. To the extent that the sustainable solution to many diseases, especially vector and waterborne diseases such as malaria and cholera which are leading cause of death in Africa, lies in the development of appropriate infrastructure (e.g. effective sanitation and drainage systems), the potential development impacts of that multi-sectoral approach are likely to be particularly significant in Africa, where the absence of basic infrastructure has been the norm, with significant economic, health and social costs. According to the latest update less than 10 percent of Sub-Saharan African countries were on track to meet MDG7—Access to Sanitation.
At the same time and to the extent that achieving the SDGs is highly technology-intensive (more so than the level of technology required for MDGs), the third set of priorities facing African countries should relate to developing the right infrastructure (particularly scientific and technological) for greater access to, and use of frontier technology for sustainable development. African countries should also strive to increase domestic resource mobilization for endogenous development by strengthening public-private partnerships and broadening the tax base. Still, they should also strengthen ownership of their development process, taking into account the fact that sustainable development is first and foremost an endogenous process that is rooted in countries' institutions, resource endowment and ecosystems, people's aspirations, and culture. Finally, effectively achieving the desired results also requires strengthening national statistical systems for a systematic and timely monitoring of progress towards the SDGs over time and during the interim years leading to the new global 2030 targets.
Meanwhile, if achieving the SDGs is predicated on meeting the challenges of climate change, then the international community will have an even greater responsibility, especially given Africa's rather low global carbon footprint. More specifically, the more advanced and industrialized economies, which have accounted for the lion's share of greenhouse gas emissions at the global level should shift their consumption patterns and production processes and adopt new ones which are more environmentally friendly to protect the environment and improve the management of natural resources, both of which are essential for sustainable development. They should also honor their commitment to technology transfers by enhancing the process of global technological diffusion to ensure that all countries (both developed and developing) constantly operate on new and frontier technologies which are cleaner, greener and more efficient. In essence such a transitional shift towards increasing access to frontier technology at the global level should accelerate the course of climate change mitigation at the global level and in the process complement ongoing efforts to enhance adaptation to climate change.
As part of a global development compact, developed countries should equally honor their commitment to raise their contribution to development financing, especially by meeting the agreed objective of allocating at least 0.7 percent of their gross national income to overseas development assistance (ODA) by 2015. Almost a decade after advanced and industrialized economies made that commitment in 2005 very few countries have managed to be on track and most are actually slated to miss that target this year. For instance, according to the most recent estimates the combined foreign aid budget of the European Union, the world's largest aid donor, remained at 0.43 percent of EU gross national income even though all EU member states committed to that target.
Except for a few countries in Northern Europe, progress on that target has indeed been very slow. Yet raising the volume of development assistance to the agreed target in advanced economies is probably the most effective short-term response to declining levels of development financing and to ensuring continuity on the path to increased development effectiveness and impact. In particular and as the HIPC-debt relief equivalent which provided the resources to support the implementation of MDGs, raising the level of development financing will go a long way to reinvigorate the global partnership for development in the post-crisis world of increasing scarcity, and in the process enhance ongoing efforts to mobilize the resources needed to support the implementation of the new SDG framework which is more comprehensive and ambitious.
Last but not least, these countries should also embrace a more altruistic approach to international development where donor financing from the more industrialized economies does not undermine ownership of the development process in donor-recipient nations. Moving away from the prevailing culture and mindset, which implicitly assumes that 'he who pays the piper calls the tune', is a prerequisite because sustainable development cannot be achieved in the absence of a strong ownership of the development process by those who will always have to dance to the tune, whether they like the music or not.
Ultimately, meeting the challenges of sustainable development will require a global shift towards a more altruistic approach to international development, whereby successive generations are more and more accountable to one another not just spatially, but also inter-temporally. The accelerated global push to curb the emission of greenhouse gases observed over the last decade is a sign of increased inter-generational accountability. Reflecting that increasing collective consciousness on the international climate puzzle EU leaders recently agreed (October 2014) on a binding commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40 percent and to increase energy efficiency and renewables by at least 27 percent within the next fifteen years.
About a month later during the gathering of the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit held in Beijing in November 2014, China and the USA, the world's largest emitters of carbon dioxide (accounting for about 45 percent of global greenhouse-gas emissions) also took an important step in the same direction. In what has been dubbed as a landmark deal China pledged in the far-reaching agreement to cap its rapidly growing carbon emission by 2030 and increase the share of non-fossil fuels to 20 percent of the country energy-mix by the same date. Meanwhile, the US committed to doubling the pace of its carbon reduction efforts before 2025, essentially reducing emissions between 26 and 28 percent compared with 2005 levels by that point.
Summary: These latest efforts to curb the emission of greenhouse gases by the leading polluting nations are in sharp contrast with disagreements which have dominated successive UN Climate Summits in the past. Perhaps these progresses are a sign that the world, and especially the two largest pieces of the international climate puzzle, are indeed coming to grip with the sense of urgency on the climate front. It is also a growing recognition by the world that sustainable development cannot be achieved without meeting the challenges of climate change. However, will the world now rise as one nation to embrace the altruistic approach to international development that is critically needed to set the global community on a sustainable development path at this juncture?
Meeting that new inter-generational challenge will require escaping from addiction to old development frameworks where the quest for growth has been the paramount objective pursued at all costs, and where technology has been the driver of comparative advantage in a zero-sum-game globalization framework. Dominated by asymmetric distribution of wealth and access to technology, these old development frameworks have been sources of environmental degradation, growth volatility and vulnerability to exogenous shocks. They have also contributed to the persistence of poverty and global inequality fuelled in part by widening technological gaps between industrialized economies and low-income countries caught in low-technology trap. In the least diversified and natural resource-dependent countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, short-term commodities prices booms have systematically been followed by crashes and reversals on the growth and poverty reduction path.
Even the most zealous of climate change skeptics now recognize that the current development framework has become unsustainable and, potentially an existential threat to the survival of human civilization. The proposed SDG framework provides the path to move the world onto a new trajectory. Embracing it will not only enhance the prospects for sustainable development in Africa, it is also likely to create the conditions for a better world where cross- and intergenerational accountability, and commitment to sustainability (environmental, fiscal and social) across space and over time are no longer just idealistic concepts entertained by marginal utopists, but aspirational goals for all.
Dr. Hippolyte Fofack is Afreximbank Chief Economist and Director of Research and fellow of the African Academy of Sciences.
[1] This essay is a follow-up to the inter-disciplinary conference organized within the context of the 2014 Blouin Creative Leadership Summit co-hosted by the Blouin Foundation and the United Nations Office for Partnership in New York on September 23-24, 2014. I am grateful for comments on an earlier draft from Emmanuel Akyeampong, Yaw Nyarko and Lara Vergnaud.
[2] Inter-Academy Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007).
[3] Artadi and Sala-i-Martin (2003), Fofack (2015).
[4] IMF, Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, October 2010.
[5] See African Development Bank (AfDB), Impact of the Crisis on African Economies—Sustaining Growth and Poverty Reduction: African Perspectives and Recommendations to the G20, March 21, 2009.
[6] Adedeji (2002), Fofack (2014).
[7] World Bank (2011).
[8] World Bank (2014) and Fofack (2015).
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