USA Africa Dialogue Series - STAR REACTIONS: Nigeria's General Elections Postponed by Six Weeks

Culled from below:

"Advice to the Leaders of the APC:

This is not the time to lose your heads. You must accept and abide by INEC's decision to postpone the elections

even if the decision was forced on the electoral body.

You must keep calm and ensure that your supporters do not take to the streets for either or both peaceful or violent

demonstrations over the postponement of the elections as to do so is to play into the hands of the PDP.

Your party, the APC and its presidential candidate has much more to gain than to lose by the postponement

of the elections, regardless of the fact that your campaign funds are dwindling. The vast Majority of Nigerians

have decided to Vote for a Change in government. Tens of millions, the majority of those who would vote for the

APC would still do so withiut any need for financial inducements.

Advice to the Leaders of the PDP:

Even though you were on course to lose the elections on Feb 14 and 28,

in what was expected to be a tight race at least in the Presidenial race,

this postponement would hurt rathe than help your cause. I doubt if additional 6 weeks

of campaigning would gain additional sufficient votes for GEJ that would stem

the tide of victory that was running in favor of the APC's Gen. Buhari before the elections.

Start the preparations for a smooth hand over government on May 29, 2015.

Advise to Fellow Nigerians:

Let us all accept the decision to postponement the elections in good faith

as it would give INEC more time to ensure that more eligible Nigerian citizens

are able to collect their PVCs. This can only be good for strenghtening our democracy."--Ola Kassim MD

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dear Bolaji:

I listened to Prof. Attahiru Jega's statement in which he formally announced the

earlier rumored decision to postpone the elections that were originally scheduled for

Feb 11 and 28th, 2015.

As disheartening as this news was to me and millions of other Nigerians and abroad,

I concluded that INEC had made the best decision in the interest of conducting fair 

and credible elections on 2015. I wholeheartedly support the decision to postpone the elections.

INEC was put in a Catch 22 scenario by the GEJ government and the PDP who had come

to the conclusion that their chances of winning the elections on Feb 14 and 28 had become

extremely slim as the election dates drew near.

Prof Jega made it clear in his presentation that INEC, as the "Electoral Management Body" (EMD)
 was substantially ready to conduct free and fair elections on Feb 14 and 18, 2015.

However, notwithstanding its readiness to conduct the elections, it would be irresponsible for INEC

to go ahead with the elections on the original dates in the face of the unanimous statements by

Nigeria's Security Apparatus-namely the SSS, Military and the NPF that they could not guarantee the security

of Nigerian citizens who would be going out to vote and those of 600,000 INEC workers and NYC volunteers and political party

operatives who would be working on the election days.

It was clear from Prof.Jega's statement INEC did not consider the deficiency in the number of PVCs distributed (approx. 69% as of

Feb 05, 2015) as sufficient reason to postpone the elections.

Hence in INEC's view the decision to postpone the elections was forced on the organization

by the Federal Government of Nigeria, whose security agencies had officially declared that they

were incapable of securing the lives, limbs and properties of Nigerians during the elections.

The game plan of the PDP which   forced this decision on INEC is to extend

the election campaign period by another 6 weeks which would enable the party to further use its

formidable war chest to outspend its main opponent, the APC which is already running out of 

money and hence stall the momentum of the latter'sPresidential candidate Gen. Buhari.

My gut feeling is that the maneuvering that led to the postponement of the elections will likely backfire on the

PDP for the following reasons:

a) Stomach Infrastructure spending during an election season  is most effective during a short period of time.

It loses its allure when such spending is further spread over 6 weeks.

b) Nigeria's democracy is a fledgling one -in which voters may not react to negative campaign adverts

as voters in more mature democracies around the world.

c) The admission that the Security Agencies of Nigeria are incapable of ensuring the safety of Nigerians

during elections is a further reminder for the electorate that the government has always failed in its

most important basic duty to her citizens, which is to ensure their security.

d) the economic situation  for tens of millions of Nigerian citizens could only grow worse

-not improve in the next 6 weeks. The economic life in Nigeria inclusive of the public and private sector

has been at a standstill for the past few months--as everyone waits for the outcome of the elections

which have now been postponed for another 6 weeks. Deals are not being made, banks are not lending,

companies are not hiring while the wait goes on. The heightened level of poverty in Nigeria is both

easily visible and palpably as it cuts across all socioeconomic levels. Federal state and LGA employees

 are owed several months

in salaries and wages. All that one hears all over Nigeria

is that the current government has brought almost all economic activity to a standstill and that there is 

'no money' for the people to spend on basic supplies including to feed their families. This standstill

has unfortunately been postponed for another 6 weeks/

Advice to the Leaders of the APC:

This is not the time to lose your heads. You must accept and abide by INEC's decision to postpone the elections

even if the decision was forced on the electoral body.

You must keep calm and ensure that your supporters do not take to the streets for either or both peaceful or violent

demonstrations over the postponement of the elections as to do so is to play into the hands of the PDP.

Your party, the APC and its presidential candidate has much more to gain than to lose by the postponement

of the elections, regardless of the fact that your campaign funds are dwindling. The vast Majority of Nigerians

have decided to Vote for a Change in government. Tens of millions, the majority of those who would vote for the

APC would still do so withiut any need for financial inducements.

Advice to the Leaders of the PDP:

Even though you were on course to lose the elections on Feb 14 and 28,

in what was expected to be a tight race at least in the Presidenial race,

this postponement would hurt rathe than help your cause. I doubt if additional 6 weeks

of campaigning would gain additional sufficient votes for GEJ that would stem

the tide of victory that was running in favor of the APC's Gen. Buhari before the elections.

Start the preparations for a smooth hand over government on May 29, 2015.

Advise to Fellow Nigerians:

Let us all accept the decision to postponement the elections in good faith

as it would give INEC more time to ensure that more eligible Nigerian citizens

are able to collect their PVCs. This can only be good for strenghtening our democracy.

Bye,

Ola

---- Original Message ----
From: Mobolaji Aluko <alukome@gmail.com>
To: USAAfrica Dialogue <USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com>; NaijaPolitics e-Group <NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com>; naijaintellects <naijaintellects@googlegroups.com>; nigerianid@yahoogroups.com <nigerianID@yahoogroups.com>; NiDAN <nidan-group@googlegroups.com>; OmoOdua <OmoOdua@yahoogroups.com>; Ra'ayi <Raayiriga@yahoogroups.com>; Yan Arewa <YanArewa@yahoogroups.com>; ekiti ekitigroups <ekitipanupo@yahoogroups.com>; Naija Elections <naijaelections@yahoogroups.com>; africanworldforum <africanworldforum@googlegroups.com>; NigerianWorldForum <NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sun, Feb 8, 2015 6:47 am
Subject: [africanworldforum] STAR REACTIONS: Nigeria's General Elections Postponed by Six Weeks

STAR REACTIONS:  Nigeria's General Elections Postponed by Six Weeks

___________

STATEMENT ON THE TIMETABLE FOR 2015 GENERAL ELECTIONS BY THE CHAIRMAN, INDEPENDENT NATIONAL ELECTORAL COMMISSION (INEC), PROFESSOR ATTAHIRU M. JEGA, AT A PRESS CONFERENCE ON FEBRUARY 07th, 2015

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Introduction

We invited you here today to make known the position of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on the timetable for the 2015 general elections. Let me state from the outset that the Commission's position was reached after carefully weighing the suggestions from briefings held with different stakeholders in the electoral process.

The conduct of elections in a country like Nigeria is invariably a collective venture that involves not just the Election Management Body (EMB), but also a diverse range of stakeholders, notably security agencies, political parties and their candidates, voters, as well as interest groups, such as the civil society organizations and the media. To guarantee successful conduct of elections, there are things that are wholly the responsibility of the EMB. But there are other things critical for the success of elections, which fall outside the control of the EMB.

In other words, while INEC must work hard to perfect its systems and processes for conducting elections, and take responsibility for any imperfections thereof, whatever the Commission does may not by itself be sufficient to guarantee the success of elections. There are a number of issues in the preparation and conduct of an election, the most critical of which is security, which is not under the control of INEC.

Current State of INEC's Preparedness

On Thursday, February 5, 2015, I was invited to brief the National Council of State, which is the highest advisory to the President comprising past and present leaders in Nigeria, on the level of preparedness of INEC to conduct the 2015 general elections. I made a presentation to the Council titled 'Preparations for the 2015 General Elections: Progress Report,' in which I gave a detailed account of what the Commission has been doing in readiness for the national elections (National Assembly and Presidential) scheduled for February 14th, and the state elections (Governorship and State Assembly) scheduled for February 28th, 2015.

The summary of my presentation to the National Council of State meeting is that, for matters under its control, INEC is substantially ready for the general elections as scheduled, despite discernible challenges being encountered with some of its processes like the collection of Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) by registered members of the public.

In addition, INEC has been doing everything it can to facilitate the collection of the PVCs by registered members of the public. As at 5th February 2015, the total number of PVCs collected was 45, 829, 808, representing 66.58% of the total number of registered voters.

In the delivery and deployment of electoral materials, INEC is also at a comfort level in its readiness for the general elections as scheduled (see the presentation to the Council of State). The Commission's preparations are not yet perfect or fully accomplished. But our level of preparedness, despite a few challenges, is sufficient to conduct free, fair and credible elections as scheduled on February 14th and February 28th. Compared with 2011 when, within a short time, we conducted general elections that were universally adjudged free, fair and credible and the best in Nigeria's recent electoral history, our processes are today better refined, more robust and therefore capable of delivering even better elections.

Other Variables

But as I mentioned earlier, there are some other variables equally crucial for successful conduct of the 2015 general elections that are outside the control of INEC. One important variable is security for the elections.

While the Commission has a very good working relationship with all security agencies, especially on the platform of the Inter-agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) since its inception in 2010, it has become pertinent for it to seriously consider the security advisory presented to it by the Security and Intelligence Services. I would like to reiterate here that INEC is an EMB and not a security agency. It relies on the security services to provide a safe environment for personnel, voters, election observers and election materials to conduct elections wherever it deploys. Where the security services strongly advise otherwise, it would be unconscionable of the Commission to deploy personnel and call voters out in such a situation.

Last Wednesday, which was a day before the Council of State meeting, the office of the National Security Adviser (NSA) wrote a letter to the Commission, drawing attention to recent developments in four Northeast states of Borno, Yobe, Adamawa and Gombe currently experiencing the challenge of insurgency. The letter stated that security could not be guaranteed during the proposed period in February for the general elections.

This advisory was reinforced at the Council of State meeting on Thursday where the NSA and all the Armed Services and Intelligence Chiefs unanimously reiterated that the safety and security of our operations cannot be guaranteed, and that the Security Services needed at least six weeks within which to conclude a major military operation against the insurgency in the Northeast; and that during this operation, the military will be concentrating its attention in the theatre of operations such that they may not be able to provide the traditional support they render to the Police and other agencies during elections.

INEC's Decision

We have done wide ranging consultation to enable us have as much input as is necessary before taking an informed decision. In the series of consultations that we held with stakeholders, the questions consistently posed to them for consideration are:

In view of the latest development, should INEC proceed with the conduct of the general elections as scheduled in spite of this strong advice; and if so, what alternative security arrangements are available to be put in place? Or, should INEC take the advice and adjust the schedules of the general elections within the framework of Constitutional provisions?

The Commission held a meeting after the consultations, and decided to take the advice of the Security Chiefs and adjust the dates of the elections. We have done this relying on Section 26(1) of the Electoral 2010 (As Amended), which states thus: "Where a date has been appointed for the holding of an election, and there is reason to believe that a serious breach of the peace is likely to occur if the election is proceeded with on that date or it is impossible to conduct the elections as a result of natural disasters or other emergencies, the Commission may postpone the election and shall in respect of the area, or areas concerned, appoint another date for the holding of the postponed election, provided that such reason for the postponement is cogent and verifiable".

INEC not being a security agency that could by itself guarantee protection for personnel and materials, as well as voters during elections, the Commission cannot lightly wave off the advice by the nation's Security Chiefs. The Commission is specifically concerned about the security of our ad hoc staff who constitute at least 600,000 young men and women, together with our regular staff, voters, election observers as well as election materials painstakingly acquired over the last one and half years. This concern is limited not just to the areas in the North-eastern part of Nigeria experiencing insurgency; the risk of deploying young men and women and calling people to exercise their democratic rights in a situation where their security cannot be guaranteed is a most onerous responsibility. Under such circumstances, few EMBs across the world, if any, would contemplate proceeding with the elections as scheduled. No matter the extent of INEC's preparedness, therefore, if the security of personnel, voters, election observers and election materials cannot be guaranteed, the life of innocent young men and women as well the prospects of free, fair, credible and peaceful elections would be greatly jeopardised.

Consequently, the Commission has decided to reschedule the 2015 general elections thus: the national elections (i.e. Presidential and National Assembly) are now to hold on March 28th, 2015; while the state elections (Governorship and State Assembly) are to hold on April 11th, 2015. It should be noted that this rescheduling falls within the constitutional framework for the conduct of the elections, notably, Sections 76(2), 116(2), 132(2) and 178(2). See also Section 25 of the Electoral Act 2010 (As Amended).

For the avoidance of doubt, we will under no circumstances approve an arrangement that is not in line with the provisions of our laws. Our hope is that with this rescheduling, the security services will do their best to ensure that the security environment needed for safe and peaceful conduct of the 2015 elections is rapidly put in place.

We in INEC reassure all Nigerians and indeed the international community of our commitment to do everything within the law and to conduct free, fair, credible and peaceful elections. We call on the security agencies to honour their commitment to restore sufficient normalcy for elections to take place within the period of extension. We also call on Nigerians, political parties, candidates and all other stakeholders to accept this decision in good faith and ensure the maintenance of peace.

As for us in INEC we'll endeavour to use the period of the extension to keep on perfecting our systems and processes for conducting the best elections in Nigeria's history. In particular, we believe that we would resolve all outstanding issues related to non-collection of PVCs, which agitate the minds of many Nigerians.

Finally, we wish to call on all Nigerians to accept our decision, which is taken in good faith and the best interest of deepening democracy ion our country.

Thank you.

Professor Attahiru M. Jega, OFR
Chairman, INEC

________________

PDP REACTION

February 7, 2015

The Peoples Democratic Party Presidential Campaign Organisation (PDPPCO) has welcomed the postponement of elections as announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, on Saturday.

"It is in the best interest of deepening democracy and in the national interest," the party said in a statement.

The Director of Media and Publicity of the PDPPCO, Femi Fani-Kayode, stated in a response to the poll shift announcement that INEC "must be commended for showing the courage to shift the elections after acknowledging the fact that its state of preparedness was not 100 per cent."

According to Mr. Fani-Kayode, "Since this decision has been taken in the interest of deepening democracy and in national interest, we accept it in good faith and we commend INEC's courage and obvious commitment to ensuring a free and fair election.

"With this decision, INEC has allayed the fears of many of our citizens that they may not have had the opportunity to vote for the candidates and parties of their choice on Election Day.

"INEC has, by the decision, ensured that no one will be disenfranchised and has helped to guarantee the safety and security of every single one of our citizens during the course of the elections.

"We are constrained to take this opportunity to wholeheartedly condemn the opposition APC for its paranoid delusions and its far-fetched and childish conspiracy theories when it comes to the issue of poll shift.

"By insisting that the elections should be conducted on February 14th the opposition was not only dangerously flirting with chaos but was also putting our country firmly on the path of confrontation, division, injustice, disaster and destruction.

"This is especially so, given the fact that no less than 34 percent of eligible voters have not been able to access their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) up till today- just seven days before the original date of the election. A situation where such a large percentage of our people would have been disenfranchised is unacceptable and the fact that the APC was insensitive to that fact speaks volumes.

"We are aware that INEC is having numerous logistical problems and numerous internal challenges and we believe that the poll shift will afford them the badly-needed time to tackle and resolve those problems and challenges before we arrive at the new dates that have been fixed for the elections.

"We believe that INEC must have drawn a useful guide from available security reports from the North-eastern zone where, despite the very serious challenges that our people are facing there from Boko Haram, we believe that elections must hold. We must insist on this in order to ensure that no parts of the country lose their right to freely, safely and peacefully participate in the coming elections and to vote for the candidates of their choice.

"It is against the backdrop of these developments that we commend INEC for finding the courage to do the right thing. In the same breath, we condemn the opposition APC leaders and members who are set to unleash confusion, mendacity and despondency everywhere and who are blaming everyone except themselves for the situation in which we have found ourselves.

"It is a glaring testimony to their irresponsible and reckless disposition that they continue to insist on having an election on a date that the institution that is constitutionally charged to conduct that election has said that it would be impossible to go ahead under the present circumstances.

"The shift of date is a welcome development. It is solely the decision of INEC. The decision is not ours but we commend them (INEC) for showing courage by owning up to the fact that they are not ready to go ahead on February 14th. The shift will help INEC to organise themselves properly, to put their house in order and to put in place all the necessary arrangements for the polls. The shift will also enable the nation's security agencies to do what they have to in order to secure the north-eastern zone and ensure that elections can hold there.

"In conclusion, we wish to encourage our supporters and we urge them to remain calm and to be patient. Our party is strong; our candidate is confident; our cause is just; our God is mighty and our victory is assured. No matter what happens and no matter how long it takes, we shall prevail. God bless Nigeria."

________________

APC REACTION

February 7, 2015

The All Progressives Congress, APC, has just heard over the news media that The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has decided to postpone the elections by six weeks on the strength of a letter by the security chiefs that they cannot provide security for the elections nationwide because of the commitment of its resources to fight insurgency in the north eastern part of the country.

This is clearly a major setback for Nigerian democracy, and our Party is meeting in emergency session to study its implications and will inform Nigerians of its decisions in the next few days.

In the meantime, though what has happened is highly provocative, I strongly appeal to all Nigerians to remain calm and desist from violence and any activity which will compound this unfortunate development. We must not fall into this obvious trap. Change we must. They can only delay it; No one can stop it.

I want to assure all Nigerians that the All Progressives Congress will not abandon its commitment to change and will sustain the struggle to establish a new Nigeria.

John E. K. Odigie-Oyegun. CON.

National Chairman, APC

________________

BOLAJI ALUKO REACTION

February 8, 2015 (in Sunday Musing)

After almost twelve hours of closed-door consultative meetings with various stakeholders, Prof. Attahiru Jega, INEC's Chairman, finally emerged Saturday February 7 2015 evening to announce that the February 14/28 general elections scheduled and announced over a year ago, have now been moved  by six weeks to the March 28/April 11.

It is important to remind every reader that an earlier Nigerian National Council of State meeting of Thursday February 5, 2015, to which I referred with pregnant expectation in my Midweek essay "To Postpone or Not to Postpone",  came and went after about seven hours of intense discourse.  

To the relief of many, including myself, that Council meeting did NOT recommend to INEC Chairman Jega to postpone the elections.  However, any news headline which indicated after the meeting that the Council RECOMMENDED to Jega that he should NOT postpone the elections was clearly wrong. Rather, it merely reminded INEC that it was its sole constitutional duty to organize free, fair and credible elections, and therefore asked him to go back and take ALL matters relating directly and indirectly to the Elections into consideration, and come to his own decision, in consultation with other members of INEC as well as other stakeholders.

Any other characterization of the meeting was political spin with an agenda, period.

However, to me, that Council decision gladdened my heart, because it was a victory for the Constitution, and a beat-back of any attempt, official or unofficial, to hastily brow-beat Jega into a particular decision that he was at that time reluctant to take.

That did not mean whatsoever that INEC could not or would not ultimately take a decision to postpone after due consultation, so I was one of many people bracing for such an eventuality.

Now that it has happened, let us make the best of a bad situation. I dislike the decision intensely – it does  the image of the nation as a/an (in)competent one no good – but  clearly after almost seventeen hours of meetings over a two-day period,  it was not taken cavalierly.  I am not interested in who motivated what, or in recriminations.  I am not asking Jega to resign, or propounding some conspiracy theories about political motivations.    It is not everything that we want that we always get, but failing that, we must be sure in our minds what we can settle for.  All I am interested in now is an even more freeer, fairer and more credible election following this enforced six-week extension.

And momentum or no momentum, all political parties must also fully realise that a six-week extension could make a difference between who ultimately wins or loses a particular contest, and that rather than sulk or be triumphal, all must maintain their alertness and continue their campaigns with all the verve that they can muster, and ask their supporters to eschew all forms of violence.

It is (almost) a new ball-game.

_____________________________________________________________

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