USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fwd: God Gave The Easy Problems to Physics; Otherwise Buhari Would Win and We Won't Be Looking for Nigeria's Political Scientists

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From: Okey Iheduru <okeyiheduru@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, Mar 26, 2015 at 8:13 AM
Subject: God Gave The Easy Problems to Physics; Otherwise Buhari Would Win and We Won't Be Looking for Nigeria's Political Scientists
To:

In 2000, Steven Bernstein, Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Stein of the University of Toronto, The Ohio State University, and University of California, Berkeley, respectively, jointly authored a paper entitled, "God Gave Physics the Easy Problems: Adapting Social Science to an Unpredictable World," European Journal of International Relations, vol. 6, no. 1, (March 2000): 43-76. They argued that for conceptual and empirical reasons the quest for predictive theory rests on a mistaken analogy between physical and social phenomena. Instead, they contend that evolutionary biology is a more productive analogy for social science. They proceeded to develop the case for forward "tracking" of social phenomena (such as the upcoming elections in Nigeria) on the basis of local and general knowledge as a constructive response to the problems associated with backward-looking attempts to build deductive, "nomothetic theory," i. e., an approach for or relating to the study of discovery of general scientific laws.

I bring this up in the light of the recent questions about why Nigeria's Political Scientists and public intellectuals are not taking center-stage in debating or explaining issues regarding Nigeria's 2015 elections. Following Bernstein et al., I'd like to suggest that God gave all the easy problems to Physics; otherwise Buhari would have won the election, going by the maddening crowd. Hence, Nigerian Political Scientists (many of whom are atrociously biased and smelling an impending ethno-religious feast!) have been of little help in explicating a Nigeria that has truly become "complexified" in all its ramifications over the past two decades.

Because it's not Physics, US President Barak Obama will be disappointed, come March 28, 2015, given his hatred for incumbent President Dr Goodluck Jonathan who will likely win CLEANLY, though by a very thin margin. The heavens won't fall; and even if there's post-election violence, Nigeria won't break up. We were spared the nightmare of possibly veering off the cliff and plunging into the precipice when INEC was compelled to post-pone the presidential elections previously scheduled for Feb. 14th. INEC, which had neither trained the 800,000 ad hoc staff; nor test-run any of the voting card readers a week to Feb. 14th, was going to declare an election result that would have left the incumbent no option but to abdicate. Some even claim "evidence" of an 80%-20% "win" for Buhari, followed by Dr. Jonathan being given "the President Bertrand Aristide option in Haiti" -- US and UK and "trusted" allies convincing him to get away in a helicopter or get chopped up (Samuel Doe style) in a coup supposedly under way. The postponement took the wind off the sail of these clever evil plotters. And, they still talk about a "clueless" President!

The tide has turned, despite the opposition not preparing their foot soldiers for what is shaping up as an inevitable alternative. Meanwhile, the C-130 planes and 200 US Marines in Accra would have wasted my tax dollars, similar to the 200-plus "Ebola Clinics" in Liberia and Sierra Leone built by US troops as "aid" which were never used for one day, but which would be a fitting vacation home for the Obamas after 2016.

More importantly, there won't be any coup. Nigeria's democracy has been tightly coup-proofed since 2010. Time and space constraints preclude a thorough disquisition here. Suffice to say that the Nigerian military--like all military forces--is very conservative and is primarily driven by its organizational interests and material interests of its officers, especially the top leadership. Democracy has been great to the military, and they're not about to become the lizard that ruined his mother's funeral this time around. The arrival of new war materiel has enabled them to demonstrate the stuff they're made of. I feel very sorry for Gov. Amaechi and Alhaji Lai Mohammed; the military DO NOT FORGET their friends or their traducers.

Also, most people aren't aware of the extent of force restructuringthat has taken place in the Nigerian Army (NA) since 2010. There are seven Divisions and many new Brigades and battalions and numerous Rapid Response Groups (RRGs) and Forward Operations Bases (FOBs) today compared to just three Divisions during the locust years of the "soldiers of fortune" --commanded by like-minded knuckle heads and trusted allies of the juntas. 

And, today? Just take a look at the backgrounds of the Commanders of the critical Guards Brigade and 3rd Battalion, Kuje and Garrison Command, Mogadishu Barracks, Asokoro--all in Abuja; 3rd Armored Div., Jos; 1st Mechanized Div., Zaria/Kaduna; and 81 Div, Lagos. Try getting SEVEN division commanders and the Guards Brigade commander PLUS the GOCs of the Infantry Corps and the Amored Corps to agree to a coup plan and I'll show you a firing squad aiming at the stakes where they're all tied up! Besides, "sacred cows" and reservation of "juicy" postings for certain ethno-religious divinely-appointed officers was dismantled by Lt-Gen Ihejirika--you wonder why he's so savagely vilified. 

Finally, in the unlikely event of any goon successfully overpowering the Guards Brigade, can he count on Jos, let alone Kaduna and Lagos? Of course, what we now have is not your father's Nigerian Air Force. Gone are the days when we had treasonable felons who became "generals" after 14 years in the army simply because they murdered their GOC and shot at Biafran kwashiokor babies.

I can't wait to see a peaceful Nigeria after March 28!

Okey

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