Beyond the numbers, some of us are interested from a social realist epistemology what underlying reality, dynamics and social processes produced the numbers? Are such dynamics and social processes unusual or unique only to particular regions of Nigeria? Understanding the social processes and dynamics will give us a clearer understanding. I will also encourage going beyond between group comparison by doing within group comparison.
In Bauchi state for instance, the governor came to power with widespread support. But this time around, he could not even win a senatorial seat under PDP. The same thing with the governor of Niger state who is PDP but could not win a senate seat The deputy senate leader or some high ranking senate official from Bauchi state lost his seat to APC.
In one town in my local government, I was told the people created a structure that symbolized the "demise" of PDP and they held a formal Muslim prayer for the dead. Note that the speaker of Bauchi State House of Assembly is from that same town and he is from the PDP. People expect him to lose his seat on April 11. This is not a Southwest affair only.
When the people in my local government voted, they are more influenced by their experience with PDP at the local level. Some say all politics is local. The pattern of vote shifted dramatically this time around in Bauchi state. But this is not a case of Yoruba or Igbo dynamics.
There is something deeper that Nigerians are dealing with than the simple idea of ethnic comparison. The best way to answer this question is to g to the grassroots people and try to listen to what their yearnings were. For instance if the shift in Southwest vote is "ethnic and malicious" how can that framework account for a dramatic shift in Bauchi State politics where the governor is PDP and all key officials are PDP?
Actually the percentage shift in vote in Bauchi from PDP to APC is more than the case in Southwestern Nigeria when you compare 2011 to 2015. I will encourage people to look more closely at "within group" variation in order to fine-tune their explanation from between groups variation. Many hitherto PDP strongholds in the North had significant shift in voting pattern even when the leaders in the state are northerners and of the same religion or even ethnicity.
In one town in my local government, I was told the people created a structure that symbolized the "demise" of PDP and they held a formal Muslim prayer for the dead. Note that the speaker of Bauchi State House of Assembly is from that same town and he is from the PDP. People expect him to lose his seat on April 11. This is not a Southwest affair only.
When the people in my local government voted, they are more influenced by their experience with PDP at the local level. Some say all politics is local. The pattern of vote shifted dramatically this time around in Bauchi state. But this is not a case of Yoruba or Igbo dynamics.
There is something deeper that Nigerians are dealing with than the simple idea of ethnic comparison. The best way to answer this question is to g to the grassroots people and try to listen to what their yearnings were. For instance if the shift in Southwest vote is "ethnic and malicious" how can that framework account for a dramatic shift in Bauchi State politics where the governor is PDP and all key officials are PDP?
Actually the percentage shift in vote in Bauchi from PDP to APC is more than the case in Southwestern Nigeria when you compare 2011 to 2015. I will encourage people to look more closely at "within group" variation in order to fine-tune their explanation from between groups variation. Many hitherto PDP strongholds in the North had significant shift in voting pattern even when the leaders in the state are northerners and of the same religion or even ethnicity.
From a rational choice perspective, some would argue that all regions or persons vote their interests; whether their calculations are right or wrong is another matter. It is like investment in Wall Street. So from this perspective, it is like Milton Friedman in Free to Choose, saying all persons know the rules of the game for investment and they invested, but some ended up winning or losing -- the key issue is that they are responsible for the choices they have made and the consequences.
Unfortunately, there is much in "liberal democracy" that is like competing in a capitalist market. And winning in a capitalist market competition is about strategy and not just about someone being this or that. My hope is that if APC fails to attend to the needs of all Nigerians, they would suffer the same fate as PDP one day.
And we would expect APC to govern fairly and inclusively. Personally I prefer the results from states where the competition is keen because such competitiveness gives more attention to the voter than when the voters in a state North or South, vote in favor of a party or candidate in the higher 90s. It is better as in investing in Wall Street to diversify one's portfolio.
Unfortunately, there is much in "liberal democracy" that is like competing in a capitalist market. And winning in a capitalist market competition is about strategy and not just about someone being this or that. My hope is that if APC fails to attend to the needs of all Nigerians, they would suffer the same fate as PDP one day.
And we would expect APC to govern fairly and inclusively. Personally I prefer the results from states where the competition is keen because such competitiveness gives more attention to the voter than when the voters in a state North or South, vote in favor of a party or candidate in the higher 90s. It is better as in investing in Wall Street to diversify one's portfolio.
I am interested in a keenly contested free and fair elections that no politician will take the voters in any state or region for granted. I hope PDP will go back to the drawing board and reflect on what went wrong like the Republicans did and the Democrats too at some point when they experienced defeat. When they rethink their strategies and modus-operandi, hopefully the masses will be taken more seriously. If they want honest advice I am willing to provide some. But if they just want to do whatever they want and take Nigerians for granted, then I have no sympathy for such kind of politics. Our hope is that if APC too ends up developing a culture of entitlement, they will suffer the same defeat.
Samuel
On Wed, Apr 1, 2015 at 11:19 AM, Bode <ominira@gmail.com> wrote:
--Interesting.On 4/1/15, 12:00 PM, "Leke Olalemi" <lekeolalemi@gmail.com> wrote:--It is true that had the numbers from the South West been exactly the same as they were in 2011 (with all other figures being the same for 2015), then Buhari would have lost; he would have lost with just over half a million votes, or about 1.8% of the total valid votes in this election. But this isn't unique to the South West: the South East and North West share the same feature.Had the South Eastern numbers been exactly the same as they were in 2011, Buhari would have lost with just over 126,000 votes, or about 0.4% of all valid votes in this election. An unconvincing win it would have been, but a win all the same. For the North West, the percentage would be 0.5%.
By the so-called geo-political zones - and compared with 2011 - the PDP haemorrhaged the highest number of votes (more than 2.52 million) in the South East; the biggest gain for the APC was in the South West (2.11 million).These are somewhat simplistic inferences, but it is clear that the initial comment* cannot be numerically correct. The data from these elections are, well, humbling.Leke Olalemi
*"One can say unequivocally that if the 2011 results in the West had remained the same, Jonathan would have been reelected by wide margins, but Buhari went from 7% to 56%. That is what elected him, the West elected Buhari, gave him the victory, period!"On 1 April 2015 at 16:07, Bode <ominira@gmail.com> wrote:One can say unequivocally that if the 2011 results in the West had remained the same, Jonathan would have been reelected by wide margins, but Buhari went from 7% to 56%. That is what elected him, the West elected Buhari, gave him the victory, period!On 4/1/15, 9:05 AM, "Salimonu Kadiri" <ogunlakaiye@hotmail.com> wrote:--15,416,221 Nigerians voted for Buhari to become President of Nigeria. Are the 15,416,221 electorates Boko Harams?
From: lekeolalemi@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 1 Apr 2015 13:54:30 +0200
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fwd: Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria's Boko Haram President Elect
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.comBelow are the percentages of the total votes won by this "Boko Haram President" in 2011 and 2015:
2011 2015 FCT Abuja 34% 48% North Central 31% 59% North East 62% 78% North West 60% 84% South East 0.4% 7.3% South South 0.8% 8.1% South West 7% 56%
Do not let the data - nor common decency - influence your prejudice... "Boko Haram president" indeed.
Leke OlalemiOn 1 April 2015 at 13:26, olugbenga Ojo <olugbenga.ojo@gmail.com> wrote:The main participant has accepted defeat I wonder what you want to achieve by calling names. Lets join hands to repair and rebuild Nigeria. Constructive criticism should follow the election declared results moreso when the contestant who lost had even reached out to the winner. I do not know the extent you would have gone if president Goodluck Jonathan did not accept defeat and congratulate GMD. We all should learn from whatever the mistakes of the incumbent president are to guide ourselves when in any position of authority.RegardsOn Wed, Apr 1, 2015 at 11:20 AM, Ibukunolu A Babajide <ibk2005@gmail.com> wrote:Toying,
You are a sore loser! You continue with your lies in your campaign of calumny after elections!
Cheers.
IBK
On 1 Apr 2015 11:06, "Oluwatoyin Adepoju" <toyindanteifa@gmail.com> wrote:
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Samuel Zalanga
Department of Anthropology, Sociology & Reconciliation Studies
Bethel University, 3900 Bethel Drive #24
Saint Paul, MN 55112.
Office Phone: 651-638-6023
Department of Anthropology, Sociology & Reconciliation Studies
Bethel University, 3900 Bethel Drive #24
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