Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fwd: Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria's Boko Haram President Elect

My people,

A friend once told me that the Nigerian situation defies scientific analysis but INEC is proving that as untrue by giving us the raw data to rely upon.

This is a good start. The whole country was tired of the Jonathan and PDP rule. They wanted a change to APC and Buhari governance!

When you turn power to the exclusive advantage of a few people rebel.

Cheers.

IBK

On 2 Apr 2015 05:08, "Leke Olalemi" <lekeolalemi@gmail.com> wrote:

Oga IBK: your tribute is fitting. Baba Kadiri's energy, as well as his abilities, are humbling. About 40 years ago, he was instrumental to getting Nigerians in Sweden to form a functional socio-cultural group; the only Nigerian embassy in Scandinavia is today - and has always been - located in Stockholm. Baba ("His Majesty"; re: the irrepressible Cornelius Hamelberg), will be 75 next year; his memory and agility are then no less than profoundly humbling. When Baba emerged here, one of our shinning lights regrettably insinuated that Baba was fictional; yet, none of anything above is privileged information...

Prof. Zalanga: There's a wealth of insight lurking in the data from this and past elections. INEC has been challenged to provide online all the data starting from the 2003 elections; they will have the time when the paperwork for the current elections are completed. Credible data is sacred; it unburdens from 'arriving' at conclusions unsupported by the facts; it could also help with thinking deeply about premises that may be misleading.

You wrote: "For instance if the shift in Southwest vote is "ethnic and malicious" how can that framework account for a dramatic shift in Bauchi State politics where the governor is PDP and all key officials are PDP?"

The 2011 and 2012 data could be employed to show that the "IF" part of the above statement is suspicious, and profoundly so, and certainly not in the context of the (existing, basic) data from the South East and South South. The "shift" could also be contextualised: some states (all in the same region) have voter turnout rates of 60% to 68%; the average for the country is about 45%...


Oga Bode: Here, one must resort to an old trick: if management appears rather unhappy with the "answer", then the data must be provided as clearly as possible... Here are the arithmetic results of the interesting "what if" scenarios you suggested:

(To be read as, for example: "Had the South East given exactly the same number of votes to Buhari and Jonathan as in 2011, then Jonathan wins with 126,494 or 0.44% of 2015 TVV (total valid votes) ", etc etc)

South East: Jonathan wins with 126,494 or 0.44% of 2015 TVV

North West: Jonathan wins with 146,018 or 0.51% of 2015 TVV

South West: Jonathan wins with 504,826 or 1.77% of 2015 TVV

North Central: Buhari wins with 355,641   or 1.25% of 2015 TVV

South South:  Buhari wins with 799,264   or 2.80% of 2015 TVV

North East:    Buhari wins with 2,311,966 or 8.10% of 2015 TVV

Buhari won in 2015 with a margin of 2,571,759 votes.

To a report like this: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/04/buhari-victory-is-northyoruba-gang-up-against-n-delta-igbo-middle-belt-groups/ one could respond that in 2015, the two largest improvement margins ("shifts"?) for Buhari were in the SE & SS:

(1) the South East gave Buhari 9.8 times the # of votes he got in 2011 (and gave Jonathan 51% less)

(2) the South South gave Buhari 8.4 times the # of votes he got in 2011 (Jonathan got 23% less)

(3) while the South South returned 77% of the votes to Jonathan in 2011, the South West returned 65%, and the South East returned only 49%. 

These are admittedly preliminary/elementary inferences from the data - the dynamics of the APC coalition would necessarily complicate the arithmetic, as will the introduction of Card Readers - but they are nonetheless illuminating. And, of course, these numbers are useful only to the extent that we remain open-minded regarding their interpretive value.

Leke Olalemi

On 1 April 2015 at 19:23, Ibukunolu A Babajide <ibk2005@gmail.com> wrote:

Salimonu Kadiri,

I do not know who you are or what and where you descended from. I  met you on this virtual world and you have restored my faith in Nigeria.

You are one fantastic and patriotic guy who is a blessing to Nigeria and a shining star of Nigerian industry. Throughout this campaign when the spin doctors came out with their panoply of lies you stepped in and with clinical accuracy punctured their balloons of lies.

What beat me hollow is your ability and speed. While I was still mulling the lie and articulating the best way to burst the bubble you are way out there with startling articulation put a needle to there bubble and with your razor sharp intellect shred their tissue of lies. I congratulate you and praise you to the high heavens.

I wish you know how many times I copied and pasted your posts and interventions to thrash the liars, forgers, and the fabricators of lies and misinformation. You are indeed a patriot and a great person.

God bless you and God bless Nigeria.

Cheers.

IBK

On 1 Apr 2015 15:00, "Salimonu Kadiri" <ogunlakaiye@hotmail.com> wrote:

15,416,221 Nigerians voted for Buhari to become President of Nigeria. Are the 15,416,221 electorates Boko Harams?
 

---

From: lekeolalemi@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 1 Apr 2015 13:54:30 +0200
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fwd: Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria's Boko Haram President Elect
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com

Below are the percentages of the total votes won by this "Boko Haram President" in 2011 and 2015:

	2011	2015
FCT Abuja	34%	48%
North Central	31%	59%
North East	62%	78%
North West	60%	84%
South East	0.4%	7.3%
South South	0.8%	8.1%
South West	7%	56%

Do not let the data  - nor common decency - influence your prejudice... "Boko Haram president" indeed.

Leke Olalemi

On 1 April 2015 at 13:26, olugbenga Ojo <olugbenga.ojo@gmail.com> wrote:

The main participant has accepted defeat I wonder what you want to achieve by calling names. Lets join hands to repair and rebuild Nigeria. Constructive criticism should follow the election declared results moreso when the contestant who lost had even reached out to the winner. I do not know the extent you would have gone if president Goodluck Jonathan did not accept defeat and congratulate GMD. We all should learn from whatever the mistakes of the incumbent president are to guide ourselves when in any position of authority.

Regards 

On Wed, Apr 1, 2015 at 11:20 AM, Ibukunolu A Babajide <ibk2005@gmail.com> wrote:

Toying,

You are a sore loser!  You continue with your lies in your campaign of calumny after elections!

Cheers.

IBK

On 1 Apr 2015 11:06, "Oluwatoyin Adepoju" <toyindanteifa@gmail.com> wrote:

                                                                                                                                  

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