USA Africa Dialogue Series - CCM out?

From:"dr. Hoseana Bohela Lunogelo" <lunogelo@esrf.or.tz> Date:Tue, Oct 27, 2015 at 9:18 AM Subject:Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - CCM out? Dear Chambi At this juncture we have to be cautious in concluding that CCM has an outright win. I have noticed two things as the counting unfolds: CCM strongholds have a lower turn up (60-70%) compared to Ukawa strongholds (turnup is more than 70 percent). Its fortunate for Ukawa that CCM is winning is less than 65 percent in its hometurf, sharing with Ukawa with about 25-35%. On the other hand Ukawa candidate is also scoring more than 80 percent in the most densely populated constituencies (remember at the end of the day its the number of votes that will matter and not % leads in low turn out constituents). You have also rightly observed that NEC has started announcing results from CCM strongholds. I think it is a commendable strategy to "manage expectations" from the youthful voters supporting Ukawa who were promised that "Ukawa will be the outright winner before noon on election day". So by showing them that they are trailing from the start is part of a clever strategy to diffuse tension otherwise we could have seem streets already full of youth celebrating victory even when less than a quarter of the votes have been counted. Anyway Chambi, at the end of the day I also believe that CCM will clinch victory by a margin of 55-60% because of the split of CCM votes in favour of Ukawa  even in CCM strongholds and yet CCM is getting nothing in Ukawa stronghold areas.  That is my elderly judgment. Mzee Lunogelo​ Dr Hoseana Bohela Lunogelo Senior Policy Advisor and Principal Research Associate at ESRF Economic and Social Research Foundation: Celebrating 21 Years (1994-2015) in  Research, Capacity Building and Knowledge Sharing OFFICE Phones: +255 754 780 133 and +255 655 780 233 website: www.esrf.or.tz Skype address: lunogelo54 Personal Phone: +255 784 262877 On 27 October 2015 at 08:28, Chambi Chachage <chambi78@yahoo.com> wrote: Yes, they seem to be winning. It is difficult for anyone to oust them without deep reforms in the electorate process - as well as a better approach by the opposition. This time the opposition tried to have a 'coalition' and get a 'strong' candidate from the ruling party but, alas, his 'track record' on corruption and 'ailing' condition is hardly paying off. Besides, the main opposition party ousted one of its popular young leader who ended up co-forming a new party and, by the look of the numbers, it seems the ruling party is clinching a lot of votes in the areas he is hailing from. Ironically, the Electoral Commission seems to be focusing more on first announcing were the ruling party is leading. From: Ibrahim Abdullah <ibdullah@gmail.com> To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com Sent: Tuesday, October 27, 2015 3:14 AM Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - CCM out? Chambi: What is the story with CCM? Are they likely to clinch the polls? If they go it will only remain Botswana, and to a certain extent Sierra Leone, where the parties that inherited the colonial state are still in power in non-settler colonies. The former settler colonies are virtually one-party states, with the exception of Guinea-Bissau where the PAIGC is dead amd the  country divided into two. -- Listserv moderated by Toyin Falola, University of Texas at Austin To post to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com To subscribe to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue+subscribe@googlegroups.com Current archives at http://groups.google.com/group/USAAfricaDialogue Early archives at http://www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa/ads/index.html --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "USA Africa Dialogue Series" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to usaafricadialogue+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.

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