Saturday, December 26, 2015

Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - On the Matter of FG finally scrapping fuel subsidy and reducing (?) petrol price to N85/litre from Jan 1, 2016

"In finally removing subsidy, the move must be properly explained to The People.  The Wailing Wailers must NOT be allowed by subterfuge to turn The People against The Government under the political guise of protecting The People against Subsidy Removal - as we had in January 2012."

- Bolaji Aluko


Bolaji,

Many thanks for sharing yet another round of data that supports your new position that removal of subsidy is good for Nigerians. How does this now square with all your "analysis" in 2012 when you and Bola Tinubu were adamantly against subsidy removal? Your analysis at the time (see link below) was quite influential in forcing young men and women to hit the streets and apparently fight for what they did not understand:


Bolaji, please go to the archives on this forum and re-read your contributions. You have changed your tune, and it is your right. But then, you would think that those who have suddenly changed their minds because it is the expedient thing to do, would apologize to those they fooled, and explain rationally why they are now bleating a different tune.  There is virtue in changing one's mind. But those who purport to lead must be seen to be credible and trustworthy, must wield their influence responsibly because many people are listening. Indeed, it is the case that many young people died because they truly believed (what now turns out to be) the nonsense that the APC was bleating just to make Mr. Jonathan look bad. Today, those of us who refuse to drink the Koolaid du jour are bullied with reams of arrogance and condescension as if that will fix the situation that the APC created. Many of us are being called Wailing Wailers and GEJites. Interesting, because the archives will show that there is no one more vociferous in condemnation of GEJ on this forum than myself.   

I was also fooled by Tinubu et al. I admit it. I was used by the same characters who now want subsidy removed. I feel silly, like Boxer of Animal Farm. They convinced me to shed my dignity and dance and  sing in protest against subsidy removal and against Goodluck Jonathan before the World Bank in DC! It is these same folks that are trotting out new reasons why we should remove fuel subsidy, because Tinubu now says so. I live far away from the hell that youths go through in Nigeria. When they protest, I join them. Don't lie to me!

Integrity and credibility are essential tools in any fight. Our leaders have lost all those. I would never go to war with these folks again, they have lost credibility and integrity before me. Fool me once...

ps.
My analysis of your stand and those of many prominent APC intellectuals also applies to your baffling wink at the atrocious handling of the Kanu case by Aso Rock. You and Tinubu and the others would have had yourselves arrested on his account in those days... We all live to learn!

- Ikhide

On Dec 26, 2015, at 9:00 AM, Mobolaji Aluko <alukome@gmail.com> wrote:


My People:

If the report of the FG finally scrapping fuel subsidy and reducing (?)  petrol price to N85/litre from Jan 1, 2016 is correct, then Minister of State for Petroleum, Dr. Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu is moving in the right direction here, as he inspects more closely some of the arbitrariness in the Pricing Template that is used to determine the so-called "Fuel Subsidy" that we have been allegedly paying......

May his tribe increase....

Please come with me....

In the PMS Pricing Template posted below by PPPRA for Christmas Day 2015,  the expected Expected Open Market Price (OMP)  for PMS  based on thirteen cost items is N93.45 per liter.  With the Retail Price fixed at N87 per liter, that requires a so-called subsidy of N6.45 nper liter.  Let us put that at N6.5 per liter.  To be more aggresive and fix the price at N85 means a subsidy removal of N8.5 per liter.

Let us stay with N6.5 per liter subsidy removal for now, meaning an OMP of N87 per liter.

That means that if on average EVERY cost element were reduced in price by N0.50 per liter, the OMP would come to N87 per liter.  More realistically, if we leave three of the cost elements (#5, 14 and 15)  in place, reduce two of them (#4, 6) by N0.25 per liter, two of them (#2, 12)  by N0.5 per liter, four of them (#3, 7, 10, 11) by N0.75 per liter, one of them (#13)  by N1.0, and one of them (#1) by N1.25 per liter and impose a Highway Maintenance Tax of N0.25 per liter (instead of building new toll gates, which require new capital costs without assurance of recovery), then we can still maintain the OPM at N87, and thereby completely eliminate so-called "subsidy". After all, some of those charges are somewhat arbitrary - some are even government-imposed (eg NPA cargo charges)  - and are subject to negotiations.

These are examples of the "price modulations" that Kachikwu must be talking about

In finally removing subsidy, the move must be properly explained to The People.  The Wailing Wailers must NOT be allowed by subterfuge to turn The People against The Government under the political guise of protecting The People against Subsidy Removal - as we had in January 2012.

And there you have it.


Bolajij Aluko



_______________________________________________________________



Pricing Template – PMS

Posted on December 25, 2015 by pppra in Pricing Templates // 0 Comments

    PPPRA PRODUCT PRICING TEMPLATE -PMS

       Based on Average Platts' Prices for 24th December, 2015

Average Exchange Rate of the NGN =N= to US$ for 24th December, 2015

 

 

 

 

 

PMS

 

 

Cost Elements:

 

 

$/MT

Naira/Litre

 

1

C + F

 

 

 

458.41

67.34

 

2

Trader's Margin

 

10.00

1.47

 

3

Lightering Expenses (SVH)

27.72

4.07

 

4

NPA

 

 

 

5.25

0.77

 

5

Financing (SVH)

 

3.44

0.51

 

6

Jetty Depot Thru' Put Charge 

5.45

0.80

 

7

Storage Charge

 

 

20.42

3.00

 

8

Landing Cost

 

 

 

530.69

77.96

 

9

Distribution Margins:

 

 

 

10

Retailers

 

 

 

31.31

4.60

 

11

Transporters

 

 

 

20.35

2.99

 

12

Dealers

 

 

 

11.91

1.75

 

13

Bridging Fund 

 

 

 

39.82

5.85

 

14

Marine Transport Average (MTA)

 

1.02

0.15

 

15

Admin Charge

 

 

 

1.02

0.15

 

16

 Subtotal Margins

 

 

105.44

15.49

 

17

Highway Maintenance

 

 

0.00

0.00

 

18

Government Tax

 

             –  

 

0.00

0.00

 

19

Import Tax

 

             –  

 

0.00

0.00

 

20

Fuel Tax

 

             –  

 

0.00

0.00

 

21

Subtotal Taxes

 

 

 

0.00

0.00

 

22

Total Cost

 

 

 

636.13

93.45

 

23

**  Ex-Depot (for collection)

 

528.64

77.66

 

24

**  Under/Over Recovery 

 

43.91

6.45

 

25

Retail Price

 

592.22

87.00

 

Expected Open Market Price (OMP) (Naira/litre) is Landing cost +Margins 

93.45

* C+F price is Offshore Nigeria

 

Conversion Rate (MT to Litres):

1341

 

Exchange Rate (N to $):

 

197.00

 

*  Official Ex Depot is exclusive of Bridging Fund, Marine Transport Average (MTA) & Admin. Charge 

 

* *Ex Depot includes Bridging Fund, Marine Transport Average (MTA) & Admin. Charge 

 

Data is as at 24/12/15

            

______________________________________________________________


DESCRIPTION OF COMPONENTS ON THE PRICING TEMPLATE With Effect from February 2009

1. PRODUCT COST ($/MT)
This is the monthly moving average cost of products cost as quoted on Platts Oil gram. The reference spot market is North West Europe (NWE).

2. FREIGHT ($/MT)
This is the average clean tanker freight rate (World Scale (WS) 100) as quoted on Platts. It is the Cost of transporting 30, 000mt (30kt) of product from NWE to West Africa (WAF). Trader's margin of $10/MT is also factored into the Freight cost.

3. LIGHTERING EXPENSES ($/MT)
STS/Local Freight charge is the cost incurred on the transshipment of imported petroleum products from the mother vessel into daughter vessel to allow for the onward movement of the vessel into the Jetty. This charge includes receipt losses of 0.3% in the process of products movement from the high sea to the Jetty and then to the depot. The mother vessels expenses are based on the allowable 10 days demurrage exposure at the rate of $28,000 per day.

The Lightering Expenses also includes the Shuttle vessel's chartering rates from Offshore Lagos to Lagos and Port Harcourt which currently stands at N2.00 per litre and N2.50 per litre respectively. Transshipment (STS) process is as a result of peculiar draught situation and inadequate berthing facilities at the Ports.

4. NIGERIA PORT AUTHORITY (NPA) CHARGE ($/MT
It is the cargo dues (harbor handling charge) charged by the NPA for use of Port facilities. The charge includes VAT and Agency expenses.

Currently, NPA charge attracts $10.50/MT on the pricing template.

5. FINANCING
It refers to stock finance (cost of fund) for the imported product. It includes the cargo financing based on the International London Inter bank Offered Rates (LIBOR) rates+5% premium for 30 days (for Annual Libor rate of 2.07%, LIBOR cost would be 7.07%). Also included in the Finance cost is the inertest charge on the subsidy element being awaited for an allowable 60 days period at Nigerian Inter Bank Offered Rate (NIBOR) rate of 22%.

6. JETTY DEPOT THRU PUT
This is the tariff paid for use of facilities at the Jetty by the marketers to move products to the storage depots. The value is currently N0.80/litre.

7. STORAGE CHARGE
Storage Margin is for depot operations covering storage charges and other services rendered by the depot owners. The charge is currently N3.00/litre.

8. LANDING COST
It is the cost of imported products delivered into the Jetty depots. It is made up of components highlighted above (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7).

9. DISTRIBUTION MARGINS
These include Retailers (N4.60 per litre), Transporters margins (N2.99 per litre), Dealers margin (N1.75 per litre), Bridging Fund (plus Marine Transport Average) (N6.00 per litre) and Administrative charge (N0.15 per litre). This amounts to N15.49 per liter on the template. The overhead cost and other running costs have been considered in the determination of these margins.

10. TAXES
These include highway maintenance, government, import and fuel taxes. It has the overall objectives of revenue generation, social infrastructure investment and servicing and efficient fuel usage. Presently, all these attract zero taxes.

11. RETAIL PRICE
This is the expected pump price of petroleum product at retail outlet. It is made up of landing cost of imported product plus reasonable distribution margins.

_______________________________________________________________________


http://elombah.com/index.php/reports/3653-fg-to-scrap-fuel-subsidy-reduce-petrol-price-to-n85-litre-from-jan-1

FG to scrap fuel subsidy, reduce petrol price to N85/litre from Jan 1


The Federal Government would on January 1 next year reduce the pump price of the Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to N85 per litre, reports PR Nigeria.

The Minister of State for Petroleum, Dr. Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu [image above] broke the news to journalists in the Port Harcourt Refinery Company (PHRC), where he spent Christmas inspecting the plant.

Asked when the Federal Government would release the new price template of the Petroleum Product Pricing Regulation Agency (PPPRA), he said that he approved the new price for the agency on Thursday.

Pressed to reveal when the new price will become effective, Kachikwu, who is also the Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said "like I said, we have done a modulation calculation and it is showing us below N87. I imagine that if PPPRA publishes it today, it will become effective immediately. But the 1st of January that is when we are looking at."

According to him, the new price is below the current N87 per litre and it would now convince Nigerians that the pricing modulation that the Federal Government promised to embark on a few days ago was not a trick.

He noted that following government's analysis and research, it has been realized that the country can fluctuate the fuel market in accordance with the crude oil market fundamentals.

Justifying government's reasons for scrapping the Petroleum Support Fund otherwise known as oil subsidy, Kachikwu explained that government can no longer afford to subsidize the product following the fraud that has attended its operation.

He added that it has become clear that government earnings are dipping on daily basis.

His words: "It is out; I signed off on it yesterday (Thursday). I imagined that in the next couple of days the marketers would get advice on that. The nice thing about the PPPRA, where I signed up on it yesterday is that the price will be far below N87.

So for the first time people will understand that the pricing modulation I was talking about is not a gimmick. It is for real. We have gone to find out how we will be able fluctuate this market to reflect what the reality of crude market is. The objective is that one, we cannot afford to continue to subsidize.

We can't even understand where those subsidies were going to. There are a lot of fraud elements in it so we need to cut that of.

The second is the earning capacity of the Federal Government is deteriorating by the day with lower prices of crude and come out more."

He submitted that from the application market realities for the pricing modulation, government has discovered that petrol would sell for either N85 or N86 per litre.

The minister recalled that it was from this axiom that President Muhammadu Buhari announced that the price of petrol remains N87 at the moment.

Kachikwu said: "But in applying that where we landed when we did the analysis for the very first time was about N85 or N86 so it is below N87.

And maybe the first price that will come will reflect it. That was why Mr. President said that prices will be N87 for now. And that is what we have in mind."

On the security of the pipelines, he said that government had tried stopping the menace with military intervention to no avail before it engaged some private contractors who had worked with the majors for the crude pipeline management.

According to him, the private contractors have taken over Atlas Cove, Mosimi and they would be extending the surveillance to Ilorin between yesterday and today.

They will also look at the Port Harcourt and Aba axis, he stressed.

The minister said that government is now beginning to have a clue of how to tackle pipeline insecurity, adding that it is far more expensive to convey petroleum and products through pipelines than trucking them by road.

He said from the briefing he got from the inspection of the refineries, they are close to re-opening.

"In the next one week, we are ready to see products out of here", he disclosed.

Kachikwu said that a lot of the rehabilitation of the refinery was being done with intensive manual labour of the staff since paucity of fund affected the holistic change that is required in the factory.

He said that the refinery is now aging so one fault comes up after the other even after repair but that would stop when government repairs the plant holistically early next year.

According to him, about 5.5 million litres daily of PMS is expected from the refinery in the next few days. Other products to come from the plants, said Kachikwu "are AGO, Kero and others. Where we love to be is to have half of the consumption of this country at the refineries at the minimum, which is about 20million litres. But where we are with the sleepless night I have had in the last few weeks any molecule is significant.

Kaduna will still be doing 2.3million. Let's start from there. And that is doing 60 per cent performance. This is still an assumption. I will like to see them getting closer to 80 or 90. By the time they time they do that we will be getting 11 to 12million litres out of this place."

_______________________________________________________________________

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