Attached is a 1-page chart of the Evolutionary Path of the Niger Delta (Nigeria) crisis. It should concern everyone where we are on the path.
Two significant points to note in this evolution especially in the critical battle for hearts and minds in the region:
1) It used to be the IOCs vs the host communities. But then, the IOCs were located in the region quarreling and dialoguing, in an uneasy relationship with the communities and critical stakeholders. These were evolving mutually beneficial relationship in a turbulent marriage of interdependence.
Today, the IOCs have virtually left the land and swamp leaving these assets in the hands of indigenous operators and "owners". The major problem with the indigenous owners is that they all are in Lagos and none is in the region. So they don't even have any relationship contact with the communities. To have even a contract to supply pure water, these community members must travel to Lagos several times burning hard-earned resources to pursue jobs they can't get. They now perceive this as internal colonization.
2) The old political message of "resource control" was not coherent and was largely seen by the region's mainstream and intellectuals as maybe too dangerous for a fragmented region, (although with certain merits).
Today's political message of "They Vs Us" is finding stronger and wider acceptability, especially in the context of the current political geography of the country and the players in the region, and the perceived activities and response of the current government to this political geography.
Moreover the welfare message and offerings of the government in the region is very weak and is inferior to, and dominated by, an alternative welfare message sympathetic to the political message of "They Vs Us" paving the way to the worse case scenario of resource cornering of the kind experienced in Sudan, Libya etc.
The refinement of the political story and its (merger) convergence with the welfare story is what will naturally take the actors to the mainstream of the region's society, and lead us to the final episode of Nigeria as we know it.
For more on the analysis see:
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