EDO: THE POSTPONEMENT ,CONTROVERSY AND BEYOND
AYO OLUKOTUN
"The United States is deeply disappointed by the decision to postpone the elections. Political interference with the Independent Electoral Commission is unacceptable and it is critical that the government not use security concerns as a pretext for impeding the democratic process" John Kerry, Feb. 2015.
The opening quote is taken from a letter written by United States Secretary of State to the Nigerian authorities in February 2015 after the presidential election scheduled for February 14 was shifted to March 28. That statement, typical of the national and international outrage that greeted the postponement decision tapped into a groundswell of dissatisfaction with the Jonathan government perceived as fighting a last ditch battle to prevent electoral loss. For a country that learns from history, that failed cynical attempt to fiddle with election schedule to gain political advantage should have served as healthy deterrent against what appears to be another effort to employ a security alert as a tool of postponing the Edo State governorship election scheduled for Saturday.
Amazingly, less than 48 hours after President Muhammadu Buhari appeared at an All Progressive Congress rally in Benin, the Nigeria Police and Department of State Services informed the public "that credible intelligence available to the agencies indicate plans by insurgents/extremist elements to attack vulnerable communities and soft targets with high population during the forthcoming Salah Celebrations between September 12 and 13, 2016. Edo State is amongst is among the states being earmarked for these attacks". It is on the basis of this "credible intelligence" that the Electoral Commission had been advised to postpone the election. As at the time this column was turned in, INEC was yet to announce its decision on the matter, raising anxiety and uncertainty about an event that is only 48 hours away.
Obviously, postponement of elections is a grave and fundamental decision that ought to be taken as a last resort and in extreme circumstances such as natural disasters or the death of a major candidate on the eve of an election. That is why established democracies and several African Countries such as Ghana do not have a record of postponing any election thus far. Earlier this year, India had occasion for the first time in its history to postpone an election because of allegations of widespread bribery and possible rigging. But it is instructive that this postponement only affected a few constituencies which were felt to have been tainted by report of corruption. In the impending elections in the United States, there have been speculations and scenario building concerning a possible postponement, unheard of in its recent history should one of the major presidential candidates, one 70 years the other 69 succumb to fatal ill health. The speculations, fuelled by Hilary Clinton's recent cough attacks and stumbling as well as Donald Trump's emotional instability are projected in ways that suggest that these are farfetched and grave scenarios without precedent. Hence, if it was wrong and cynical for Jonathan government to have used a security excuse to shift the 2015 elections which it still lost, it is no less reprehensible to postpone the Edo election under whatever guise.
Talking about security reports, this writer recalls that in the course of researching a book published in Sweden 12 years ago, I had occasion to interview a former Minister of Information and well known Political Scientist, Professor Sam Oyovbaire. In answer to one of my questions, he said to me: "Don't forget that very often, security agents can be likened to makers of coffins whose businesses flourish when there are fatalities. It is understandable therefore that state security can sometimes manufacture or create alarms in order to boost their relevance and professional importance". Oyovbaire was of course referring to the role of security under the General Ibrahim Babangida government about which I had sought clarification. But the point can be applied generally. For example, many Nigerians will find alarming a statement credited to the Inspector General of Police, Ibrahim Idris, that the protests by the #BringBackOurGirls constitute a security threat to public peace and order (The Punch, September 8, 2016). One would have thought that the coalition now branded security threats was doing the government a world of service by keeping an important agenda on the national burner so that resolution and decisiveness may be brought to bear on the rescue of the Girls.
Obviously, there is a distinct difference between intelligence gathering and intelligence analysis, and recent events and statements call into question the judgment and analytical acumen of our intelligence community. Even if the alert on Edo is as credible as we are made to believe, could it not have been raised before the arrival of international and national observers in Edo State and INEC's preparation got into full gear?. It is very poor advertisement for Nigeria and our sense of organization that such an alert is being published 72 hours to a scheduled election. In the unlikely event that INEC will brush aside the security advisory, its publication without consultation with INEC have raised serious doubts about the motives, not to talk of the monumental losses and disenfranchisement that will occur as a consequence.
The issue of the General Certificate Examinations which were played up for different reasons could have been a more plausible factor for postponing the election, except that the number of those affected, that is, candidates who are over 18 are comparatively slim and their rights could perhaps have been subsequently accommodated in a supplementary election. At any rate, the exam had been scheduled before the election date was picked by INEC who apparently had under researched the operating environment.
Interestingly, before the recent security alert hit the airwaves, I held conversations with a scholar and politician resident in Benin as well as with a senior journalist. One of them who has authoritative knowledge of Edo State politics, having been in and out of government told me that: "The election will be tightly fought and each of the major candidates from the APC and PDP respectively has a 50:50 chance of winning". He went on to explain that in Edo, party identification is not a predictor of electoral consequences citing as precedent the election of 2007 where some members of the People's Democratic Party including Pastor Osagie Ize- Iyamu worked for the victory of Governor Adams Oshiomole, and went ahead to ensure his judicial victory against the interest of their party.
Hence, although Oshiomole has performed above average in a climate of pervasive mediocrity, his record does not automatically confer particular advantages on his anointed heir apparent, Godwin Obaseki, whose voice has been drowned in the campaigns by that of the comrade governor who was doing more running than the candidate. It is possible therefore and speculations are rife to that effect that the security alert had been invented at least partly by a government that was sore afraid of being voted out of power.
If this is indeed the case, it remains to be seen how such a gamble could shift the balance in its favour. At any rate, it was inopportune for security to have counselled the postponement of the elections as they did in 2015, on tenuous premises.
Olukotun is a Professor of International Relations at the Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife.
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