There are some possibilities: 1. Yahya Jammeh regime will phase off if ECOWAS acts as it has signalled. 2. Yahya Jammeh will surrender before January 19 if his kangaroon court declares that he is not the winner. 3. Yahya Jammeh will spoil the show by adopting the method Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida used in Nigeria; Jammeh will ban all political parties, handover to a military officer who will open a new democratic process. 4. Yahya Jammeh may succeed if ECOWAS expects local fighting to start before its military will join one side on the ground. 5. Yahya Jammeh may succeed if ECOWAS does not pull resources together on time and have its military presence on time. 6. Yahya Jammeh may succeed because Adama Barrow has no control over the military at the moment. If anyone can wake MKO Abiola of Nigeria up from his grave, Adams Barrow will learn good strategies and avoid common errors from someone in his position. 7. ECOWAS may not act if there is no trouble internally in The Gambia, so Yahya Jammeh may have his way. Bayo Omolola |
From: Toyin Falola <toyinfalola@austin.utexas.edu>;
To: dialogue <USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com>;
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bloomberg: Gambia's Jammeh Vows Escalation If West Africa States Interfere
Sent: Mon, Jan 2, 2017 1:26:47 AM
| Gambia's Jammeh Vows Escalation If West Africa States Interfere Gambian President Yahya Jammeh said a standoff with neighboring West African states over his refusal to step aside after losing December's election will escalate into war if the alliance doesn't back down from its stance. Read the full story Shared from Apple News Sent from my iPhone |
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