Saturday, January 21, 2017

USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: Again, Gas Shortages Cause Transmission System Collapse | THISDAYLIVE


Joe Attueyi:

By the way, here is a table of information on expenditure on power from 1999 to 2015 (rather than 2001 to 2010 given earlier) given by former Power Ministry Perm Sec Igali.  I have also included the Vanguard article entitled "Power: Obasanjo, Yar'Adua, Jonathan spent N2.74trn in 16 years" at the end of my discussion.

We can safely say that we spent anywhere from N1 trillion to N2.5 trillion on power between 1999 to 2017, to move our municipal power from 1,750 to 5,000 MW total capacity.

Expenditures on Power in Nigeria (Igali)

Year

 Appropriated

(Billion Naira)

 Released

(Billion Naira)

% Released

1999

 11.206

6.698

59.8

2000

 59.064

49.785

84.3

2001

 103.397

70.927

68.6

2002

 54.647

41.196

75.4

2003

 55.583

52.07

93.7

2004

 54.647

54.647

100.0

2005

 90.283

71.889

79.6

2006

 74.308

74.3

100.0

2007

 100

99.8

99.8

2008

 156

112

71.8

2009

 89.5

87

97.2

2010

 172

70

40.7

2011

 125

61

48.8

2012

 197.9

53.5

27.0

2013

146

49

33.6

2014

 69.8

48

 68.8

2015

 5.240

0

  0

 

1,564.575

1,001.812

64.0

 


Just to fulfil all righteousness, so that figures of public expenditure on power can be in the correct ballpark...

Bottom line?  We MUST fill the following table to move forward:


Table to Calculate the Power Cost Need of Nigeria

 

S/N

Source

National

Energy Mix (MW)

Technology

Unit Cost $/MW

Total Nat'l Cost

Commitment/Yr ($)

 

Public Funding/Yr ($)

Private Funding/Yr ($)

1

Oil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

Gas

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

Coal

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4

Hydro

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5

Solar

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

Wind

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7

Biomass

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

Geothermal

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9

Nuclear

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL

20-60,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


And there you have it.


Bolaji Aluko


On Sat, Jan 21, 2017 at 11:33 PM, Mobolaji Aluko <alukome@gmail.com> wrote:

Joe Attueyi:

Yes, we need billions of dollars of private investment (domestic and international (including possibly a Diaspora Power Project Bond issuance)), but we cannot abandon public funding of such a critical component of national development. For example, between 2001 and 2010, we must have budgeted almost N1 trillion in capital expenditure on power:

au

Clearly, what corruption did not suck from these public expenditures, INEFFICIENT deployment by unqualified personnel (working with private contractors) might have caused us this high cost of darkness.

So we must combat corruption in these expenditures, and ensure that the most qualified public officials exercise control in working with the private contractors to deploy in a liberalized, deregulated sector, while creating the right investment and forex environment for international investment.



Bolaji Aluko


 

Power: Obasanjo, Yar'Adua, Jonathan spent N2.74trn in 16 years

ABUJA—THE Senate was told, yesterday, that the Federal Government has invested a N2.74 trillion in Nigeria's power sector over the last 16 years (1999 to date).

The investments were made during the regimes of former President Olusegun Obasanjo; his successor, late President Umaru Yar'Adua, and President Goodluck Jonathan.

The Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Power, Ambassador Godknows Igali, and the Managing Director, Niger Delta Power Holding Company, NDPHC, Mr. James Olotu, disclosed this before a Senate Ad-hoc Committee probing the power sector from 1999 till date.

Furthermore, Olotu revealed that contrary to popular belief, the National Integrated Power Projects, NIPPs, which gulped about $8.23 billion or N1.64 trillion were actually being funded from the Excess Crude Account, rather than from ministerial provisions.

Jonathan, Yardadua and Obasanjo
Jonathan, Yardadua and Obasanjo

Power in military era

Speaking further, Ambassador Igali told the Senate that former military Heads of state, who ruled the country from the overthrow of former President Shehu Shagari, up to 1999, when democracy was reinstituted, crippled the power sector.

According to Igali, this is because the successive regimes not only failed to recruit the relevant engineers for 19 years, but also failed to invest in the power sector during their reigns.

He disclosed that out of the 79 power generation units, only 19 were functioning at that time, adding that no new power plant was constructed from 1991 to 1999.

He recalled that the last plant, Shiroro was built in 1991, long before the emergence of Obasanjo as president in 1999, adding that consequently, the power sector depreciated rapidly due to lack of consistent investment and funding until Obasanjo began the power reforms.

Democracy brought improvement

Igali said further: "When democracy came, the government inherited the sector that had not made capital investment for a long time and not a single engineer was recruited in 19 years. Despite the effort at investment by government, we have not been able to invest in a consistent manner in the power sector.

"Investment from government and the private sector must go up gradually but consistently, as fluctuation will not help our economic development. I do know that despite government's effort at funding the power sector, the nation continues to experience epileptic power supply. However, it takes time to stabilise."

He equally recalled that when Obasanjo came to power in 1999, electricity generation capacity was a mere 1,750 MW, noting that in view of the volume of investment required, the Ministry had to bring in the private sector which resulted into a reasonable improvement from what it used to be.

Funds appropriation

Igali further disclosed that despite the sector's need, budgetary votes were seldom released fully, noting that the country cannot realise the full benefit of any investment in power unless the value chain elements – generation, transmission and distribution were also revamped.

He gave a breakdown of the appropriation and money released from 1999 to 2015 as follows:

*1999 – N11.206 billion appropriated, N6.698billion released;

*2000 – N59.064billion appropriated, N49,785 billion released;

*2001 – N103. 397 billion appropriated, N70.927 billion released;

*2002 – N54.647billion appropriated, N41.196 billion released;

*2003 – N55.583billion appropriated, N5.207billion released;

*2004 – N54.647billion appropriated, N54. 647billion released;

*2005 – N90.283 billion appropriated, N71.889 billion released;

*2006 – N74.308 billion appropriated, N74. 3 billion released;

*2007 – N100 billion appropriated, N99.8 billion released;

*2008 – N156 billion appropriated, N112 billion released;

*2009 – N89. 5 billion appropriated, N87billion released;

*2010 – N172 billion appropriated, N70 billion released;

*2011 – N125 billion appropriated, N61 billion released;

*2012 – N197. 9 billion appropriated, N53. 5billion released;

*2013- N146 billion appropriated, N49 billion released;

l2014 – N69.8 billion appropriated, N48 billion released; and,

*2015 – N5. 240billion appropriated, no money released yet.

However, he said that it was only in 2009 that the power sector witnessed a full appropriation, adding that the annual net funding shortfall ranged from 22 per cent to 67 per cent.

Intervention funds

According to Igali, about N155 billion intervention fund was released to the Ministry for the Multi-Year Tariff Order, MYTO, to cushion the effects of the shortfalls in expenditure for the power sector between 2009 and 2013.

The funds were given for a period of five years. A breakdown of the interventions funds are as follows:

*2009 – N30.8 billion;

*2010 -N43.2 billion;

*2011 – N37.0 billion;

*2012 – N11.5 billion; and,

*2013 – N32.6 billion.

Outstanding labour issues

Speaking on the defunct National Electric Power Authority, NEPA, the Permanent Secretary, who noted that every aspect of power has been sold, except for the transmission units, said that about 2,000 workers were yet to be paid off.

He noted that many who claimed to be staff of NEPA do not have valid documents, adding that parts of the proceeds from the privatisation exercise were used to settle labour claims of over 46,000 workers by the Bureau of Public Enterprises, BPE.

He said the payments were made through the office of the Accountant General of the Federation and the National Pensions Commission.

Electricity operations

Speaking on the high cost of operations in the power sector, Igali who noted that a healthy infrastructure expansion programme required continual investment, said that about "60% – 70% is the typical utility debt to equity profile. Infrastructure projects should be fully funded over a three-year budget cycle.

"Typical Capital Cost (based on a 200:1 Naira/USD exchange rate), Gas processing plant N30 – N40 billion; each Gas pipeline N12 million per inch per km; Generation N200 million per MW; Double circuit 330 kV transmission line: N85million per km; Double circuit 132 kV transmission line N80million per km; Transmission transformer N16 million per MVA; Single circuit 33 kV distribution line N6.5million per km; Single circuit 11 kV distribution line: N6million per km; and Distribution transformer N2.5million – N6 million each."

No witch-hunting

Earlier, the Chairman of the Committee, Senator Abubakar Kyari, APC, Borno North, insisted that the exercise was not to witch-hunt anybody, but a fact finding one in the interest of Nigeria.

Expected to appear before the Committee today are the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, NERC; Bureau of Public Enterprises; BPE; Power Generating Companies, GENCOs and Power Distributing Companies, DISCOs.

It would be recalled that Senate President Bukola Saraki, had last month announced a 13-man ad-hoc Committee to carry out a holistic investigation into the management of funds appropriated to the power sector from the Olusegun Obasanjo civilian administration to date.

Senator Saraki had urged members of the committee to consider their reputation and integrity and come up with a report that would be acceptable to Nigerians. He lamented that a lot of money had been spent on the sector with no results, while Nigeria is still faced with the challenge of power supply.

The committee was also saddled with the responsibility of looking into irregularities in the unbundling of the Power Holding Company of Nigeria, PHCN and to inadvertently probe how the Obasanjo, Umaru Yar'adua and Jonathan administrations managed funds allocated to the sector.

It was charged with the task of looking into the entire power value chain including generation, transmission and distribution with a view to identifying what the problems in the sector are.

Saraki who noted at the inauguration of the committee three weeks ago that the task before the panel is huge, had however frowned at the continued absence of regular supply of electricity despite the country's huge investments in the sector.

Kyari, in his remarks during the inauguration detailed the nature of the investigation his committee is saddled with,saying, " to have a close look at the entire power value chain (generation, transmission and distribution) calls for review of our policies in order to obtain optimum performances across the board.




On Sat, Jan 21, 2017 at 1:46 PM, 'Joe Attueyi' via AfricanWorldForum <africanworldforum@googlegroups.com> wrote:
Ultimately, as a nation, we must construct an Energy Mix, Technology and Cost Table as I have set out above, and determine how to fund the 20,000 - 60,000  MW municipal electric power deficit that we have in the country - and I am talking about both public and private funding, from both domestic and international sources.

That Prof Aluko is the Crux of the matter. 

1. Given the limitations and other demands on it, there is limited availability of public funding available for funding circa 45,000 MW of power in Nigeria 

2. Which means the bulk of the funding has to come from private funding--domestic and international. 

Are we as a people willing to pay the price required to bring private funding into the power sector? I don't believe so. And that is the conundrum a regime that came to power on populist promises has found itself 

Joe


Sent from my iPhone

On 21 Jan 2017, at 9:55 AM, Mobolaji Aluko <alukome@gmail.com> wrote:


Anthony Momah:

Your last sentence fascinates me:  what is this  "scalable technology" that you know  that  "can add anywhere from 50 to 1M megawatts within a period of 6 - 18 months" to our energy grid - and at what cost per Megawatt?

I know of seven primary energy sources:

S/N..Source..........Nat'1 Mix (MW)..Technology..........Cost $/MW............Total Nat'l Cost ($).......Commitment/Yr ($)
1.  Hydro.................???...................???.......................???.............................???......................???
2.  Oil......................???...................???.......................???............................???......................???
3.  Gas....................???...................???.......................???............................???......................???
4.  Coal...................???...................???.......................???............................???......................???
5.  Solar..................???...................???.......................???............................???......................???
5.  Wind..................???...................???.......................???............................???......................???
6.  Biomass............???...................???.......................???.............................???......................???
7.  Nuclear...............???...................???.......................???............................???......................???
______________________________________________________________________________________
.....TOTAL...........20-60,000 MW...................................???............................???......................???
_______________________________________________________________________________________


Ultimately, as a nation, we must construct an Energy Mix, Technology and Cost Table as I have set out above, and determine how to fund the 20,000 - 60,000  MW municipal electric power deficit that we have in the country - and I am talking about both public and private funding, from both domestic and international sources.

Kindly educate us.



Bolaji Aluko


On Fri, Jan 20, 2017 at 4:16 PM, 'Anthony Momah' via AfricanWorldForum <africanworldforum@googlegroups.com> wrote:
Joe

Your last sentence makes my point - Nigeria and Nigerian will be better off as a whole today and in the future if the power generation issue is tackled, but as you said it is being held back by the greed of a number of stakeholders. Where there is a will there is a way, if natural gas was/is cheaper (and is that much cheaper than petrol/diesel) won't it make sense to invest in power plant that use that abundant cheap resource our country has be burning off for the last 60 years? Find a way to subsidize and guarantee investment profits, set up a series of timed payouts to the investors over an agreed upon timeline,  please lets stop making excuses and call a spade a spade power generation will make money for whoever invests in it, just look at how people invest in providing power for themselves and their business can you imagine the $billions being spent on generators and diesel yearly so individual households can have power. The issue here is about will and reaching a decision to stem out corruption the that sector of governance.

Also can you fault the delta guys for blowing up the pipes, when Deziani or whatever her name is can be steal $ billion (no accountibility built into the system), $ billions is spent to build, maintain and expand Abuja and Lagos and their communties are rife with oil spills, desease, forest and river fires and the Nigerian leaders say nothing but give themselves huge salaries and lavish official quarters, cars and servants?

This issue can be address it doesn't take 18 yrs to just build 3000 megawatt, haba?

I personally know of a technology that is scalable and can add anywhere from 50 to 1M megawatts within a period of 6 - 18 months, the key word is scalable!
 
______________________________
Anthony A. Momah



From: 'Joe Attueyi' via AfricanWorldForum <africanworldforum@googlegroups.com>
To: africanworldforum@googlegroups.com
Cc: yahoogroups <NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com>; NIgerianWorldForum <NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com>; rotfash <rotfash@yahoo.com>; yahoogroups <yanarewa@yahoogroups.com>; NaijaObserver <NaijaObserver@yahoogroups.com>; vincentotuonye <vincentotuonye@msn.com>; yahoogroups <igboworldforum@yahoogroups.com>; yahoogroups <talknigeria@yahoogroups.com>; raayiriga <raayiriga@yahoogroups.com>; yahoogroups <omoodua@yahoogroups.com>; Google Inc. <okonkwonetworks@googlegroups.com>; nebukadineze <nebukadineze@aol.com>; mgadeniyi <mgadeniyi@aol.com>; yahoogroups <nigerianid@yahoogroups.com>; ebohon <ebohon@dmu.ac.uk>; isholawilliams <isholawilliams@gmail.com>; ikeagbor <ikeagbor@yahoo.com>; abba2007 <abba2007@gmail.com>; naijaevent <naijaevent@googlegroups.com>; olakassimmd <olakassimmd@aol.com>
Sent: Friday, January 20, 2017 9:27 AM
Subject: Re: [africanworldforum] Again, Gas Shortages Cause Transmission System Collapse | THISDAYLIVE

Anthony 
I feel you bro. 

Just for record purposes though:
1) I don't believe Nigeria has spent $100 billion on power over the past 18 years. The largest annual federal budget Nigeria has ever passed in NASS was the equivalent of $20 billion. Recurrent expenditure is normally circa 70%!

2) The gas used by power GENCOS doesn't necessarily have to come from refineries. It can be produced as associated gas ( with crude oil), or non associated gas direct from gas fields. Then the liquids are stripped from the gas and the lean gas is used to generate electricity. 

3) Historically gas prices had been so low in Nigeria that it was cheaper to flare associated gas ( and pay the fine) or plug and cap non associated gas discoveries. Government has finally moved the prices to something economical. There are now investors investing in gas development in Nigeria. 

4) The problem is that from final Investment decision to first gas takes time. Secondly the gas has to be transported from gas fields to generating plants through pipelines ! And the pipelines are being breached regularly

5) The socioeconomic impact of (3) is that if you increase gas price to GENCOS then the electricity price supplied to DISCOS has to go up which means the tariff paid by you and I has to go up BEFORE we even see any improvement in power supply!

That my brother is the price we have to pay rudderless leadership. No power plants were built in Nigeria from 1984 to 1999! And when OBJ faced the issue greed and corruption did not allow him to do the needful 

Joe

Sent from my iPhone

On 20 Jan 2017, at 13:45, 'Anthony Momah' via AfricanWorldForum <africanworldforum@googlegroups.com> wrote:

Am i the only one who is wondering how after spending over $100 Billion over the last 4 president and 18 years Nigeria can only still generate less than 3000 Megawatts of Electricity for the entire country. And that an oil producing country doesn't see the need to dedicated a refinery to produce diesel and gas for its power generation.

WTF, who are these idiots running this country?

Power generation for Toronto and its surrounding suburbs is approximately 30000 ( I repeat 30000) Megawatts not to talk about what is generated to power mega cities like York or London or Shanghai and their surburbs; how can we trust a government so inept and corrupt that it can't or refuses to address a subject matter (in this case power generation) we all acknowledge as the next major engine for change and transformation of the country and continent with the esblishment and disbursing of a diaspora bond?

This is beyond annoying...

AM


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Subject: [africanworldforum] Again, Gas Shortages Cause Transmission System Collapse | THISDAYLIVE
Sent: Fri, Jan 20, 2017 9:53:24 AM


http://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/01/19/again-gas-shortages-cause-transmission-system-collapse/


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