Monday, February 27, 2017

USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: [africanworldforum] As CBN Pumps Another $221m, Analysts Expect USD’s Slide to N400 | THISDAYLIVE

Joe Attueyi:

These episodic pumpings-in of dollars due to improved oil money earnings - $520 million in the past week or so -  is NOT sustainable - neither is floating the naira that you suggest in your hackneyed orthodox manner.   On the long run, only (1) a re-structured Nigeria (both administrative and reward-wise), (2)  reduced foreign appetite/increased self-reliance, and  (3) improved infrastructure  and (4)  increased/diversified productivity for increased international investment/earnings will get us out of the rot that we are in.  

We are in a post-rapaciousness,  Buhari-fear-induced era in Nigeria where at the same time there is TOO MUCH (MANY) Naira and TOO MANY Dollars (from the rapacious period) now OUTSIDE the banking system CHASING EACH that no matter the fiscal or monetary policies of either the Central Bank or the Nigerian Government, nothing will seem to be REALLY working in managing our forex.  Those with too much Naira are hedging by buying dollars in the black market and storing some of them in dollars; those with dollars (many of who also have Naira) are taking advantage of the high exchange and getting hot Naira also in the black market....and so the dance continues, with the "average" Nigerian "cursing" those who came to clean up for "incompetence" instead of directing angst appropriately - all at the same time proclaiming laughter being the best medicine! :-).

This is REALLY where years of corruption have gotten us to, which is the real cause of the INSECURITY and POOR ECONOMIC CONDITION that we have been facing for a while.

On the short run, the anti-corruption crusade must be more holistic and decisive  - and certainly not the way it is being fought, in fits and starts.  The Judiciary is re-collecting itself after an initial jolt; an opportunity to clean the Augean stable might have been lost, as Judges (and even the legal profession) may have now closed ranks to "support their own" and drags things out.  The Legislature continues to frustrate serious legislation that will lead to class suicide;  and one no longer fully understands the Senate and EFCC filings at the CCT (for example).   Even the Executive may have begun to show the same disease it purportedly came to cure, with all kinds of "grass-cutting" contracts!  But maybe "whistle blowing" will pump new life into the whole enchilada?

On the SHORTER run - or even SHORTEST RUN -  besides legislating the limiting of dollar holdings within Nigeria and pumping in dollars, changing the COLOR of our Naira currency SUDDENLY and NOW - note: not changing the currency, BUT the combination of colors - will put the MOST serious bite on the corruption crime of those who hold millions and billions of Naira OUTSIDE the banking system in the junkyards and money wells, which have been chasing those dollars.

But will CBN's Emefiele do that?  Inquiring minds want to know.

And there you have it.

Bolaji Aluko
Shaking his head

On Mon, Feb 27, 2017 at 9:29 AM, 'Joe Attueyi' via AfricanWorldForum <> wrote:
One hopes these interventions are staged as a precursor to a full float of the Naira.

Otherwise these episodic 'pumping of dollars ' into the system will not be sustainable


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