 | | POLITICAL CALCULUS
Realpolitik is when practicality takes over idealism for permanent interest Reporting by MsJoe
In the African Union Institutional Reform, titled the THE IMPERATIVE TO STRENGTHEN OUR UNION , adopted at the AU Summit in January 2017, recommendation 9 reads:
Partnership Summits convened by external parties should be reviewed with a view to providing an effective framework for African Union partnerships. Rather than all countries, Africa could be represented by: - Chairperson of the African Union
- Previous Chairperson of the Union
- Incoming Chairperson of the Union
- Chairperson of the African Union Commission
- Chairperson of The Regional Economic Communities (RECs)
African leaders and representatives trooping en masse to foreign capitals, as unconnected spectacles of multiple nations to be schooled, should soon be a relic of the past - if the principle of the reform is to transform to effective framework.
Ambassador Donald Yukio Yamamoto (sitting third from left; standing seventh from left) Acting Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, posses for a photo with his African counterparts from the African Union Commission after the fifth annual U.S.- African Union High Level Dialogue at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C. on November 16, 2017.
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson shakes hands with African Union Chairperson Moussa Faki before addressing reporters at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C., on November 16, 2017.
Some friendships are more painful than others. They may test and stretch the act of diplomacy to satisfy the requester's quest, regardless of hostility it generates elsewhere at the expense of the compliant party.
But a world power may not be given to sublime gestures, indirectness or what it may consider to be unnecessary roundabouts and small talks. So the letter and spirit of the envisioned deal is to serve its interest, fair or foul - period. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson participates in the Ministerial on Trade, Security, and Governance in Africa at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C. on November 17, 2017.
On Friday November 17, 2017, the U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson schooled African leaders to take further actions to pressure North Korea to end its nuclear and missile programs, including downgrading diplomatic ties and expelling North Korean laborers.
"All nations must act to implement U.N. sanctions in full," Tillerson told a trade and security gathering with African ministers. The U.N. sanctions were first imposed in 2006, focusing on arms embargoes and trade restrictions based on concerns about the development of North Korea's nuclear weapons program.
From trade to insults.
President Trump calls Kim Jong Un "Little Rocket Man." Not too long ago, the North Korean leader called Trump "an old lunatic." The American president was not happy and wondered, through twitter, why the North Korean would do that when he has never thought of calling him "fat and short."
North Korea once again took a jab at the US President by calling him "mean trickster" and an "old slave of money." What to make of these complicates any model of diplomacy. A studied distance by third parties would not be a bad idea.
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said to the Africans: "Further, I urge you to take additional measures to pressure the - The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) by downgrading your diplomatic relationships with the regime, severing economic ties, expelling all DPRK laborers and reducing North Korea's presence in your country."
If budgeting is a measure of reciprocal friendship, the US is cutting its support to Africa.
In October 2017, State Department officials were put on defensive as members of both parties in the US Congress denounced the Trump administration's proposed funding cuts for program in Africa. The Republican chairman of a US House subcommittee on Africa joined his Democratic colleagues in criticizing Mr Trump's intention to sharply reduce food aid and to scale back other initiatives benefiting sub-Saharan countries.
In a Washington Post article published in July 2017 titled North Korea's surprising, lucrative relationship with Africa, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had warned that any nation with military or economic ties to North Korea "is aiding and abetting a dangerous regime," and the Trump administration threatened a cutoff in trade with countries that were doing business with the "pariah nation."
Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan meets with Sudan Foreign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour in Khartoum, Sudan on November 16, 2017.
The U.S. State Department said on Thursday, November 16, 2017 that Sudan has committed to severing trade and military ties with North Korea.
China is by far North Korea's largest trading partner and the US is not cutting ties with the Chinese. It does not appear the Africans would be very impressed with the Sudan showpiece.
Examples cited: In Windhoek, Namibia, there is a futuristic national history museum, the modern presidential palace, the sprawling defense headquarters, constructed or are being constructed by North Korea.
In Namibia's national museum, a black-and-white picture of a North Korean soldier leading a group of local soldiers hangs in the foyer. "Our world outlook was determined by who was on our side during the most crucial time of our struggle, and North Korea was there for us," said Tuliameni Kalomoh, a senior adviser in the Namibian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the country's former ambassador to Washington. Namibian officials describe a different North Korea from a pariah picture. They see a longtime ally, a partner in development and an affordable contractor. The Namibian government said in a statement in 2016 that it "remains committed to the implementation of all U.N. sanctions resolutions," but added that "the warm diplomatic relations with the DPRK will be maintained."
Since the 1960s, when North Korea provided support to African nations during their independence struggles with European colonial powers, the regime has fostered political ties on the continent that have turned into commercial relationships.
"We've relied on them for help to develop our infrastructure, and their work has been unparalleled," said Frans Kapofi, Namibia's Minister of Presidential Affairs. Across Africa, such relationships are common.
President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda said he learned basic Korean from Kim Il Sung, the former leader of North Korea and grandfather of current leader Kim Jong Un, during various visits to the country.
In Maputo, Mozambique's capital, the street "Avenida Kim Il Sung" runs through the heart of downtown.
In a no nonsense brand of realpolitik, Africa has to determine her interests in the global arena and, as they say, Play the Game. |
UNFOLDING MsJoe writing
November 17, 2017
Touch Not the Revolutionaries! Alas, the famed and fable intellect of Comrade Mugabe made him to trespass too far.
It is not anything he did to the opposition or the White farming gentry on the land. It was when he started forgetting the path to his stool of leadership and need to groom fellow travelers, some of whom he bled with and were jailed together.
In politics, ingratitude - forgetting who was on your side at crucial moments, is a perilous slope and a potent weapon in the hands of those crossed. At the opportune moment, all bets would be off.
Particularly jarring was the purging of veterans of the revolution from positions and party. It was the unkindest of cuts if you ask the aggrieved and those who feared the same faith.
ZANU-PF provincial structures in all the country provinces met today. At least 8 called for the resignation of their First Secretary, President Robert Mugabe.
The decision cited the advanced age of the President that has caused him to loose control of the nation and party - and allowed the formation of "cabals" who, as the saying goes, know neither the agony of defeat nor the thrill of victory - in this case, the Zimbabwe War of liberation. Hence, the cabal became a clear, present and imminent obstacle.
To who and what? Slice and dice it, it is about intra-party and survival palaver.
The provincial vanguards further called for the resignation of women's league Secretary and First Lady Dr. Grace Mugabe from the party. She has been a lightening rod not known for admirable skills - to put it gingerly. Otherwise, to explain the allegations would be tantamount to an essay in political racketeering in a vaulting ambition gone amok.
The provincial structures also indicated the party should convene a special Central Committee meeting in two days to realign the revolutionary party with current political developments.
Meanwhile, they demanded the reinstatement of former Vice President Cde Emmerson Mnangagwa whom they said was dismissed without the endorsement of the central committee. Those purged since 2014 may see a comeback. Are these constitutional? Based on the Zimbabwe Constitution of 2013, no amount of intra-party matter, rally, etc., is a substitute for the law. The pertinent section states: The Senate and the National Assembly, by a joint resolution passed by at least one-half of their total membership, may resolve the question whether or not the President or a Vice-President should be removed from office for a. serious misconduct; b. failure to obey, uphold or defend this Constitution; c. willful violation of this Constitution; or d. inability to perform the functions of the office because of physical or mental incapacity. While ZANU-PF has the right to determine its membership or flag-bearers for elections, the Generals must tread carefully on constitutional grounds. Well, no real novelty. Former South African President Thabo Mbeki's presidency came to an end when he was believed to be was messing with those with party credentials and trying something else that the party faithful couldn't care less. They chose his successor. ZANU-PF may decide party issues; not matters of the nation.
During the day, President Mugabe presided over graduation ceremony with his security details in tact. People stood and cheered.
November 16, 2017 Two days after the military's unprecedented incursion into Zimbabwe's political sphere on November 14, 2017, the comprehension eludes conventional script. To wit, the military does not intervene to preserve the reign.
This leaves an array of talking heads in mainstream media playing psychologists into the psyche of the African unfolding in striking exceptionality. Thursday November 16, 2017 at the Zimbabwe State House: President Robert Mugabe (center) in a meeting with the ZDF Commander General Constantino Chiwenga. South African Minister of Defense Minister and Military Veteran, Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula (in yellow African head-tie - yes a woman). Left from President Mugabe: Zimbabwe Defense Minister Dr Sydney Sekeramayi; State Security Minister Cde Kembo Mohadi; and Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, General Constantine Chiwenga. Obviously, this is not the "Blue House - the private residence of the President" where he is reportedly confined with his family, including his wife. The rumor that she is out of the country proved to be false.
A motorcade with a car marked ZW1 left the Blue House to the State House.
The original stance proclaiming the unchanged status of President Mugabe is officially maintained. Whatever soft landing to be imagined or intriguing, it is still exceptional in approach.
You would be within reason to recall the much quoted line of Samuel Langhorne Clemens (November 30, 1835 - April 21, 1910), better known by his pen name Mark Twain, an American novelist, writer, lecturer and humorist who deadpanned "The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated" if President Robert Mugabe is to respond.
In a dizzying turn around, what seemed to be spiraling into taunts, with potentials for asymmetrical warfare pitting veterans with memories vs youthfulness in the country, came to a halt.
The youth muscling, also known as the G40, is aligned with First Lady Grace Mugabe. More pointedly, the leader of the Youth Wing of ZANU-PF, Kudzai Chipanga, apologized to General Constantino Chiwenga, for the confessed inexperience and juvenile excesses contained in the counter-accusations on Day 1.
The youth said "I have reflected and personally admitted that I erred. I was ill-advised to read the statement which the youth league had not originated, neither authored." "We are still young people, we are still growing up. We learn from our mistakes, and from this big mistake, we have learnt a lot," Chipanga said, speaking on behalf of his fellow youth league members. The youth leader said he took full responsibility for his actions, and that his decision to apologize was not coerced.
This does not happen in the West. Insults have characterized and flavored the politics as the new normal; they are experience-neutral and age-free. Nobody is apologizing, even when the Secretary of State (equivalent of a Foreign Minister) calls his boss "a moron."
The status of the displaced Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa is a puzzle whose pieces hold some outcomes of consequence. His escape plan and routes to South Africa after being ousted are materials for a novel. Whether the shock from the sack induced the ailments to be treated, his sudden wellness and return suggest otherwise.
But the man, known as Shona "The Crocodile," and close to the military is a player to watch. Mr Mnangagwa, 71, a remaining breed from the revolution, played an integral role in Zimbabwe's war of independence in the 1970s over the British. He was Zimbabwe's spymaster during the civil conflict in the 1980s and doubled as a body guard for President Mugabe.
While on his brief hideout in South Africa, he vowed to return and lead. Intelligence report has him in the inner circle mapping out a post-Mugabe presidency since a year ago. On his part, he said he was poisoned. A twitter account claimed he is assuming powers on Nov. 17 but the account was quickly disabled.
Poisoned or not, these revolutionary credentials are no solace to the West or the opposition.
Britain, with the neo - colonial Lancaster House Agreement of "willing seller and buyer" for land redistribution, is already weighing in on a government to its notion of democracy. The temerity of Britain that betrayed its Empire 2.0 ambition in March 2017, after Brexit, is interesting.
If the rush back is any indication, opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai of MDC-T is not about to let the spoils of the moment go by. He took leave from his medical treatment in Britain and South Africa for what it is worth. But it is unclear where he fits in the high stakes.
The fright of Mrs. Grace Mugabe ascending the pinnacle of power cannot be less petrifying than the trepidation of an MDC-T mounting the seat of the presidency if the idea is to maintain the virtue of the revolution as expressed by the military and alarms that Zimbabwe may slide into a neocolonial client state.
Father Fidelis Mukonori (left) in the meeting with President Mugabe, Zimbawbwe Defense Force Commander General Constantino Chiwenga and South African envoys.
Father Mukonori is a prominent priest in Zimbabwe who has worked for the Centre for Peace Initiatives in Africa based in Harare and committed to conflict prevention, conflict management, and conflict resolution, ensuring sustainable peace, development and good governance. He is the author of "The Genesis of Violence in Zimbabwe"
Whatever the fracas, however deep the crack, betrayal reasoned and rationalized, the cost/benefit of military stay is a stain and, arguably, the moderating pull in the talks.
In January 2017, ECOWAS (Economy Community of West African States) demonstrated a compelling African knowhow in resolving the Gambian political impasse, presaged with the titillating offer by the then Gambian Chief of Defence Staff, Ousman Badjie: "We are going to welcome them with flowers and make them a cup of tea" in a preference not to engage in "a stupid fight" with the ECOWAS forces.
That is not what happened in the invasion of Iraq by the Coalition of the Willing. Flowers were expected from the fawning locals to be liberated; mayhem happened. Libya lies in ruins in the aftermath of UN resolution 1970 (2011) of February 26, 2011. Terror and arms proliferation increased.
The brilliance of the African regional resolve in Gambia precluded the need for ECOWAS to be put to test in a flashback: when its ECOMOG force, commanded by Lt. General Victor Malu of Nigeria, contained the Sierra Leone military intervention and restored the democratically elected leader, the late President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah, to power.
Lt. General Malu, the Commander of the ECOMOG peace-keeping force from 1996 to 1998, died on Oct. 9, 2017. Eyes are on SADC (Southern African Development Community). President Jacob Zuma of South Africa is the current Chairperson. A meeting on the unfolding is planned in Botswana, where SADC is headquartered.
Zimbabwe's election is next year. The guarded discourse may prove to be another African self-mastery: No non-African intervention, inducement, or consideration.
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| MsJoe reporting....
The West should not pop the champagne yet. Not even JJ Rawlings of Ghana captured imagination in this style.
Historians would be scrambling to understand what would go down as a mystique in African ingenuity.
South African President Jacob Zuma and Chairperson of the South African Development Community has spoken to President Robert Mugabe who indicated that he is confined to his house, another way to understand "house arrest," in the capital Harare, but says he is fine. President Mugabe's wife is rumored to be out of the country in Namibia. The dramatic crack followed a week after President Mugabe fired his longtime Vice President and military veteran, Emmerson Mnangagwa, accusing him of disloyalty.
The thought of a wife in line to lead those who gave blood and limb, and memories of those who gave life, were more than hiccups for the military as the vexatious narratives lend some clues.
Amid salacious fingering, complete with accusations of witchcraft, the sacked Vice President ran away for dear life. The moments are so fluid that the lucid should exercise restrain on pronouncing matters conclusively. On Wednesday, November 15, the ruling ZANU PF party said via its Twitter feed that Mnangagwa has emerged from hiding, returned to lead the party.
But what is in plain sight is the military with troops patrolling the capital. Simultaneously, the command is emphatic, saying the President is "secure" but it is targeting "criminals" around him. And when the flushing is done, sanity restored, everything would return to normalcy, insisting that this is not coup making. What is it? Africa has an indigenous tradition, with stick and carrot, in resolving pivotal issues? Well, the military is still proclaiming President Mugabe to be the only President, a verse that does not tally with accounts hoped for if your ears are trained to BBC, Reuters, CNN, and the mainstream Western media. For now, the final details are stuff made from "conclave." Nevertheless, two things are most assured: 1) The African Union will not entertain a military takeover and 2) Zimbabwe, a landlocked country, cannot survive a blockade.
READ AND DISCERN
General Chiwenga QUOTE
"Let us begin by quoting the Constitution of this Country particularly the preamble which speaks of "Exalting and extolling the brave men and women who sacrificed their lives during the Chimurenga/Umvukela and national liberation struggles and honouring our forebears and compatriots who toiled for the progress of our country".
It is with humility and a heavy heart that we come before you to pronounce the indisputable reality that there is instability in Zanu-PF today and as a result anxiety in the country at large. Zimbabwe's history is hinged on the ideals of the revolution dating back to the First Chimurenga where thousands of people perished.
"When the gains of the liberation struggle are threatened we are obliged to take action- General Chiwenga
Zanu-PF is the political Party that waged the Second Chimurenga for our independence; the struggle that caused the loss of over 50 thousand lives of our people; the struggle in which many Zimbabweans, in one way or the other, sacrificed and contributed immensely for our liberation.
Many of these gallant fighters still live-on with the spirited hope of seeing a prosperous Zimbabwe but also the hope of leaving behind inheritance and legacy for posterity. It is pertinent to restate that the Zimbabwe Defence Forces remain the major stockholder in respect to the gains of the liberation struggle and when these are threatened we are obliged to take corrective measures.
Clearly, Zanu-PF having mainly been the only Party that has ruled this country since Independence, it had become a household name to most Zimbabweans across political divide. Therefore, it is common cause that any instability within the Party naturally impacts on their social, political and economic lives, accordingly, there is distress, trepidation and despondence within the nation.
Our peace-loving people who have stood by their Government and endured some of the most trying social and economic conditions ever experienced are extremely disturbed by what is happening within the ranks of the national revolutionary Party.
What is obtaining in the revolutionary Party is a direct result of the machinations of counter revolutionaries who have infiltrated the Party and whose agenda is to destroy it from within. It is saddening to see our revolution being hijacked by agents of our erstwhile enemies who are now at the brink of returning our country to foreign domination against which so many of our people perished.
The famous slogan espoused by His Excellency, The President of the Republic of Zimbabwe Head of State and Government and Commander-in-Chief of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, Cde R. G. Mugabe: "Zimbabwe will never be a colony again" is being seriously challenged by counter revolutionary infiltrators who are now effectively influencing the direction of the Party.
It is our strong and deeply considered position that if drastic action is not taken immediately, our beloved country Zimbabwe is definitely headed to becoming a neo-colony again.
The current purging and cleansing process in Zanu-PF which so far is targeting mostly members associated with our liberation history is a serious cause for concern to us in the Defence Forces.
As a result of squabbling within the ranks of Zanu-PF, there has been no meaningful development in the country for the past 5 years. The resultant economic impasse has ushered-in more challenges to the Zimbabwean populace such as cash shortages and rising commodities prices.
Our revolutionary path is replete with conduct and rebellion by people who have attempted to destroy the revolution from within. The formation of FROLIZI, the attempt to remove the late Cde Chitepo from his position of Chairman at the Mumbwa bogus Congress in 1973, the Nhari-Badza rebellion, Ndabaningi Sithole rebellion soon after the death of Cde Chitepo, the Vashandi 1 and 2 as well as the rebellion that led to the death of the late ZIPRA Commander, Cde Alfred Nikita Mangena, among others are cases in point.
Therefore, the current shenanigans by people who do not share the same liberation history of Zanu-PF Party are not a surprise to us.
But, what is significant to us and the generality of Zimbabweans is to remember that all these rebellions were defused by the military, but at no point did the military usurp power.
We must remind those behind the current treacherous shenanigans that when it comes to matters of protecting out revolution, the military will not hesitate to step in.
ZANU PF's standing political virtues are a product of faithful adherence to the founding values, decorum, discipline and revolutionary protocol in the ruling Party.
Party orders were strictly adhered to and whatever differences existed, they were resolved amicably and in the ruling Party's closet. Unfortunately since the turn of 2015, Zanu-PF's traditional protocol and procedures have been changed with a lot of gossiping, backbiting and public chastisement being the order of the day. Indeed the Party is undoing its legacy built over the years.
While our people may be persuaded to take what is going on in Zanu-PF as internal political matters in that Party, the truth remains that Zanu-PF's conduct and behaviour as a ruling Party has a direct impact on the lives of every citizen; hence all of us regardless of political affiliation are affected by the Party's manner of doing business.
From a security point of view we cannot ignore the experiences of countries such as Somalia, DRC, Central Africa Republic and many others in our region where minor political differences degenerated into serious conflict that had decimated the social, political and economic security of ordinary people.
Section 212 of the Constitution of Zimbabwe mandates the Zimbabwe Defence Forces to protect Zimbabwe, its people, its national security and interests and its territorial integrity and to uphold this Constitution.
Among other security threats that are coming out of what is obtaining in Zanu-PF are there reckless utterances by politicians denigrating the military which are causing despondency within the rank and file.
Further, we not with concern the attempts by some politicians to drive a wedge between the security services for their own selfish interests. This is unacceptable. We take great exception to this behaviour.
There is only one Commander-in-Chief, His Excellency The President, Head of State and Government and Commander in Chief of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, Cde R. G. Mugabe.
The military in an institution whose roles cut across the wider spectrum of Government support functions in the form of Military Aid to Civil Power and Military Aid to Civil Ministries, which are roles derived from Defence Instruments.
Therefore we want to state here and now that the history of our revolution cannot be rewritten by those who have not been part of it.
Having said that we strongly urge the Party:To stop reckless utterances by politicians from the ruling Party denigrating the military which is causing alarm and despondency within the rank and file. The current purging of which is clearly targeting members of the party with a liberation background must stop forthwith.
The known counter revolutionary elements who have fermented the current instability in the Party must be exposed and fished out. As the Party goes for the Extra-Ordinary Congress, must go with equal opportunity to exercise their democratic rights.
Comrades and friends, ladies and gentlemen, we remain committed to protecting our legacy and those bent on high-jacking the revolution will not be allowed to do so.
Further, we must understand that the freedoms that we enjoy today were as a result of supreme sacrifice by some of our country men and women and this must not be taken for granted. Let us remove this air of uncertainty and allow Zimbabweans to enjoy their freedoms and rights as enshrined in the national Constitution."
UNQUOTE |
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