ANAMBRA STATE ELECTIONS IN NIGERIA:
A REFERENDUM IS COMING ON NOVEMBER 18, 2017
The following essay is an attempt at a socio-political experiment, to test a hypothesis. The hypothesis, terms and references used in this essay do not necessarily reflect the writer's own views or opinions.
For the purposes of this experiment, it is assumed that the people of Anambra State in Nigeria (the vast majority of whom are Igbo) are politically conscious. It is further assumed that in the scheduled November 18, 2017 gubernatorial elections in Anambra State, the politically conscious people of Anambra State will consider Operation Python Dance 11 in the East to be the most important, if not the only important issue in the upcoming elections. From the pronouncements coming from Ohanaeze and many other groups in Nigeria, it is further assumed that the Igbo people of Nigeria, which includes the vast majority of the residents of Anambra State, believe that the military action code-named Operation Python Dance, was "anti-Igbo, genocidal, and undemocratic."
The hypothesis therefore is that, with all things being equal (including a free and fair election where the actual votes count) the voters in Anambra State will on November 18, 2017, exert consequences on those individuals and/or political entities who/that collaborated with and/or participated in Operation Python Dance. The said consequences will either be an electoral reward or an electoral punishment.
BACKGROUND
Not long ago, the now proscribed group that called itself Indigenous Peoples of Biafra (IPOB) called on the registered voters in Anambra to boycott the upcoming election for governor in the state. Their point was that the elections the people of the East had participated in since 1999 had yielded little or nothing in terms of genuine democratic dividends. They also wail that the "leaders" they have "elected" since 1999 have proven to be colossal disappointments. Their views, not mine. As such, IPOB and its sympathizers had suggested that voters in Anambra State must lead the way (by virtue of the unique placement of their gubernatorial elections on the Nigerian political calendar) in demonstrating the anger of people of the East. That anger, IPOB suggested, must be demonstrated in the form of a boycott of the November 18, 2017 election in Anambra State. Give us a referendum (to gauge whether the East wants to secede) or no elections in the East, IPOB decreed.
Beyond the celebrated notion of free speech and group aspirations, IPOB's dance steps posed a challenge to the sovereignty of the Nigerian State that simply could not be ignored by any nation-state. How any given nation-state responds to such a challenge is a topic for another essay, but for the purposes of this current essay, the Nigerian nation-state chose to arouse the python to dance – hence Operation Python Dance 11.
Self-determination is not an ephemeral concept; it is an instinct that is innate to each of us. And the upcoming election for governor of Anambra State gives the people of "The East" perhaps the greatest opportunity to demonstrate whether they truly believe in self-determination or whether the term has become another euphemism for enterprise.
IPOB will indeed get a referendum on November 18, 2017, thanks to Operation Python Dance 11, but not in the manner its operatives had advocated. In this essay, I assert that a referendum will indeed come on November 18, 2017.
TO BOYCOTT OR NOT TO BOYCOTT
The current world order is organized principally within the model of nation-states. The main concept that makes a nation-state one is its recognition by other nation-states as a sovereignty. The operatives of IPOB believe a boycott of the election in Anambra State will not only demonstrate its influence among the people of the East, but it will force Nigeria to negotiate its sovereignty as a nation-state. And even after Operation Python Dance, some elements still want the call for boycott to be heeded.
The fact is that there will indeed be several measures in the Anambra elections. The effectiveness of the call for boycott will be measured by comparing the voter turnout in Anambra the last time elections were held for governor, to the turnout on November 18, 2017.
The great Mbonu Ojike once called on Nigerians to "boycott all boycottables" in furtherance of the peoples' pursuit of political independence from Britain in the 1950s. The boycott of elections or of census operations were never part of Ojike's mantra. Ojike did not tell us to boycott everything. Inherent in his then radical prescription was the idea that not all things are boycottable (at least not with the collective interest of the people in mind). This is why I consider the call for boycott as one that is lacking in strategic thinking. The outcome of the election, regardless of the turnout, will affect Anambra people and those Nigerian citizens who reside in Anambra for at least the next four years. Those who show up to vote will choose the governor for themselves and for those who stay at home, with absolutely nothing in strategic gains for IPOB and its sympathizers.
NOW TO THE DANCING PYTHON
Those who say that the python does not dance have not spoken to those in whose towns and villages the python is recognized as their patron deity animal (protected species). Muhammed Ali told us that he danced like a butterfly, but as good and legendary as he was in pugilism, many people considered and still consider his craft a cruel and brutish enterprise.
The nation-state's python did dance in the East from September 15 to October 14, 2017. From all analysis, the operation marked the most deadly military action in the East since the Nigeria/Biafra War. The only relevant question in this essay is what the people of the East are going to do about it, starting with the Anambra election for governor? If it is true that the people of the East as a whole, including Ndi Anambra, consider Operation Python Dance as "anti-Igbo, genocidal, and undemocratic," then the degree to which the people extract consequences for the event will demonstrate the people's political consciousness and seriousness.
There are no rewards or punishments in life; there are only consequences for actions and lack of action. If the people of Anambra State believe that Operation Python Dance was good for the nation and therefore good for Anambra, the people can reward it by choosing from among those political entities that collaborated with the operation and that are now presenting candidates for governor. On the other hand, for those who truly believe that Operation Python Dance was "anti-Igbo, genocidal, and undemocratic," the only meaningful consequence for Operation Python Dance in the Anambra election for governor on November 18, 2017 will be to punish and make any entity that participated in or collaborated with Operation Python Dance fail with flying colors in the upcoming election.
ACCOUNTABILITY
While Operation Python Dance was a military action, the decision to plan and implement it was political. It was political in the sense that it was ordered or authorized by an elected civilian president. The military would not play python in the East without the authority of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Nigeria. Soldiers do as soldiers are commanded, in the storied tradition of disciplined compliance.
By Nigerian rules President Buhari would not be president if he had not been sponsored by a political party. The political party that sponsored President Buhari is the All Progressives Congress (APC). The APC therefore owns Operation Python Dance. To the extent that Ndi Anambra truly believe that the military action was "anti-Igbo, genocidal, and undemocratic," and to the degree that they are politically conscious, serious and consistent, then the vast majority of Ndi Anambra would have no business voting for the APC flag bearers in the upcoming Anambra State election. In theory, that is.
The current governor of Anambra State is Chief Willie Obiano. He did not order Operation Python Dance, but he was one of the governors who reportedly proscribed IPOB, rejected the secessionist demands, and in all practical purposes acquiesced to Operation Python Dance. Governor Obiano, by Nigeria rules, would not have become governor without being sponsored by a political party. The party that sponsored Governor Obiano was the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA). To the extent that Ndi Anambra truly believe that the military action was "anti-Igbo, genocidal, and undemocratic," and to the degree that they are politically conscious, serious and consistent, then the vast majority of Ndi Anambra cannot vote for the APGA candidate for governor in the upcoming election. Theoretically speaking.
Apart from Governor Obiano, his other brother-governors in the East were reported to have also proscribed IPOB, rejected the secessionist demands, and in all practical purposes acquiesced to Operation Python Dance. In Abia, which was the main theater of the python's dance, Governor Okezie Ikpeazu became governor under the banners of the People's Democratic Party (PDP). In Enugu, Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi became governor under the flag of the PDP. In Ebonyi, Governor David Umahi (Chairman of the South-East Governors Forum) was elected under the banners of the same PDP. To the extent that Ndi Anambra truly believe that the military action was "anti-Igbo, genocidal, and undemocratic," and to the degree that they are politically conscious, serious and consistent, then the vast majority of Ndi Anambra would have no business voting for the PDP flag bearers in the upcoming election. Again, in theory.
I do not accept that these governors from the East were blackmailed into acquiescing to Operation Python Dance. As "security chiefs" in the region, they all acted believing that Operation Python Dance was in the best interest of the nation and the region or they acted simply to preserve and protect their own political interests, or both. And in so doing, they either did right by Ndi Igbo (and therefore must be commended and their political parties rewarded) or they betrayed their people by collaborating with and acquiescing to Operation Python Dance. The first meaningful feedback by Ndi Igbo to these players must be registered in the Anambra elections by either voting for the APC, APGA or PDP or by rejecting all of them.
ENTER THE TIGER
Now that the python has rested, will the tiger come to dance? The United Progressive Party (UPP) has the tiger as its logo. From all available information and evidence, the UPP and its operatives were not in a position to collaborate with or participate in Operation Python Dance. This may simply be a happenstance of history, but the fingerprints of the UPP cannot be found in that operation. In fact, the reactions of the UPP and its gubernatorial candidate in Anambra State, Mr. Osita Chidoka, have been remarkably different from other entities. It is true that Chidoka has campaigned on several other issues facing Anambra State. Yet, he did not only call for the end of Operation Python Dance while it was still on, he has also condemned it. Chidoka has also consistently located the agitation in the East within the confines of self-determination and a negotiated federation, and his party (the UPP) has gone as far as adopting the call for referendum as part of its platform. There can be no clearer resolve and thus no clear choice for voters in Anambra State.
To the extent that the voters in Anambra State truly believe that the military action was "anti-Igbo, genocidal, and undemocratic," and to the degree that they are politically conscious, serious and consistent, then the vast majority of them have only one genuine viable choice in the upcoming election in Anambra State. The Igbo refer to themselves as a nation (not a nation-state). One of the hallmarks of a "nation" is the capacity to exert consequences for actions it deems inimical to its interests. If Operation Python Dance was inimical to the interests of Ndi Igbo, and Ndi Anambra consider themselves Ndi Igbo, then Ndi Anambra must lead the way in registering the discontent of Ndi Igbo.
EPILOGUE
If the APC, APGA, or PDP wins the election in Anambra State on November 18, 2017, one of the explanations would be that the perception of Operation Python Dance as "anti-Igbo, genocidal and undemocratic" is not necessarily the perception of Ndi Igbo in general, as demonstrated by the votes in Anambra State. As such, we would have to reject the hypothesis herein.
However, if the UPP wins the election in Anambra State, one of the explanations would be that Operation Python Dance was the main issue, and that Anambra voters, as politically conscious and serious actors, decided not to reward it.
Dr. Ugorji O. Ugorji
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