USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fw: Prof Olukotun's Column

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On Thu, 13 Sep 2018 at 13:42, Ayo Olukotun

<ayo_olukotun@yahoo.com> wrote:

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       WHY NIGERIA STAGNATES AT POTENTIALLY GREAT STATUS

                      AYO OLUKOTUN.

"Apart from oil, Nigeria has a solid mineral sector with numerous resources spread across the country REMAINING LARGELY UNTAPPED. Australian Foreign Policy White Paper, 2018. 

For as long as anyone can remember, Nigeria has been described as a "potentially great country" "an emerging power", "a future tiger" and sundry other futuristic labels. Even before the 4th Republic, national and international sources have projected Nigeria, on account of a large and growing population, abundant natural and human resources, and an often bubbling economy as a potential tiger. The country itself under successive leaders came up with various projects designing the country as destined for a top position in the global economy, for example one of the top 20 economies in 2020. 

     Several years on however, the potentially great country still remains just that, the emerging power has failed to fully emerge, while the projected tiger has been recently declared the world's poverty capital. Desparingly, the much talked about recent Report of the Economic Intelligence Unit on the 2019 elections, which predicted a narrow electoral victory for the Peoples Democratic Party, went on to say that regardless of which party wins the election, Nigeria's fortunes and economy are unlikely to improve, at least in the short term. Some of the questions to ask are; What exactly is going on? Why is the country trapped in a potentially great status without realising that potential? What is it about us that has turned a beckoning utopia into cheerless dystopia?

       This writer does not pretend to have all the answers but it is possible to hazard guesses teased out from our recent and ongoing political experiences. A few days ago, to take an example, the Minister for Transport, Mr Rotimi Amaechi, was quoted as saying that if President Mohammadu Buhari is reelected, Nigeria will enjoy 24hours electrical power. As every one knows, this is a promise that had been made by every aspiring leader and party since the beginning of the Fourth Republic. Former President Goodluck Jonathan, I believe it was, who asked Nigerians to go and sell their standby generators, because they will no longer need them after his election. That promise was repeated by the All Progressive Congress during the last campaign, when there was much boasting that there is no big deal about solving the electrical power jinx.

       Today, however, and as a recent Workshop on Energy held in Port Harcourt pointed out, Nigerians are spending annually over 1trillion Naira to provide themselves electricity, because of the poor state of service delivery in the power sector. Considering that healthy infrastructure is critical to industrialization and to economic activities across a wide range of sectors,failure to provide electricity in any appreciable quantity is definitive and must be counted as the soft underbelly of national economic growth and development. Pointing up this factor puts a slightly different gloss on Amaechi's promise to provide round the clock electrical power. In other words, Nigeria stagnates because of the abysmal gap between promises or official rhetoric and dynamic, result oriented performance. Have you noticed that the Buhari administration has recently been setting up committees on burning national issues, in cases where, as a recent Punch Editorial expressed it, what is required is focus and commitment rather than proliferating committees. 

         This diversionary and time buying approach is expressed differently by the opening quote, which informs that most of our resources and potentials remain untapped, unharvested. Talking about committees, it is pertinent to ask what has happened to the Report of the Ten Man Committee, set up on the restructuring of the federation by the ruling APC. We can also speculate that the same fate is awaiting the six man technical committee set up last week to "probe foreign involvement in the herdsmen/farmers crisis as well as the 17man Anti Corruption Committee instituted a fortnight ago by the Attorney General and the Minister for Justice, Abubakar Malami SAN. At this point however, the writer digresses to accommodate a short take.

      In another week, the people of Osun State will go to the polls to elect a new governor for a four year term. Expectedly, the campaign has gone on vigorously and with great enthusiasm, with as many as 30 candidates jostling for the coveted position. It may puzzle why so many candidates emerged in a state which cannot be described as exactly rich, and where finance has been an issue affecting outgoing governor Rauf Aregbesola's visionary developmental program. When you look deeper however, the campaigns boil down to a three pronged horse race between the Candidate of the APC, Gboyega Oyetola, that of the PDP, Senator Ademola Adeleke, and that of the Social Democratic Party, Senator Iyiola Omisore.

    To be sure, the three front runners are formidable, having been in politics or governance for many years. Adeleke comes from a well known political family in Ede, and came to prominence after the unfortunate death of his brother, which redounded to him a great deal of sympathy. A regaling and entertaining fellow, he is limited by a recent controversy concerning his West African School Certificate, and what will appear to be a measure of intellectual deficiency in his paraphernalia. Omisore, a well known politician and former Deputy Governor of Osun State has been predicting victory for himself intermittently. He is constrained however, by the fact of having tried and not succeeded a number of times(this may also work to his advantage like it did for Buhari) as well as an unresolved issue about his role in the PDP campaign finances of 2015. 

    Oyetola benefits from the incumbency factor, being the candidate of the ruling APC.This is by no means an unqualified blessing, because there are those who think that Aregbesola has not performed as ably as he could, especially in view of the issue of unpaid and half paid salaries. An objective narrative will take into account, however, the many projects that litter the state, especially in infrastructure, education and social investment. Overall, Oyetola's profile as a well educated Professional with solid private sector background confers on him an edge over his rivals, as well as the endorsement of this columnist. 

    To return to the initial discourse, the setting up of committees is being substituted for resolute actions and for the kind if morality that does not allow offenders to slip through the dragnet. Nigeria does not grow to its projected stature because its leaders say one thing and do another, pinpointing the infirmity of purpose and irresolution that have become the character of governance. Nowhere is this lacuna more evident than in the postponing games and double speak on the need to restructure the federation for greater effectiveness. Successive leaders have either treated the issue with contempt or played games with it, in a world in which more established democracies like that of Canada have held repeated national and constitutional conferences. 

     A final point concerns the consumptive culture and predatory habits of leaders, who do not understand the need to secure citizens buy in by reducing ostentation, and by punishing corruption even when it affects their kinsmen and loyalists. For Nigeria to move from potentially great to actually great, it must deal with these fundamental problems. 

Professor Olukotun is the Oba(Dr.) Sikiru Adetona Professorial Chair of Governance, Department of Political Science. Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago Iwoye.

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