USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fw: Prof. Olukotun's Column

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Subject: Prof. Olukotun's Column

Should Buhari Groom a Successor for 2023?

Ayo Olukotun

"Succession is very funny because if I did find anybody, I will create more problems for him or her. Let those who want to be President try as much as I did"

President Muhammadu Buhari, The Punch Wednesday, July 31, 2019

President Muhammadu Buhari's statement, quoted above, to the effect that he has no intention whatsoever to groom a successor was made in response to a request by a group which called itself Progressives in Academics. It is not exactly clear how the body was constituted, and how representative they are of the academic community in Nigeria. By gaining the president's attention, however, there is a hint that they possess influential political connections. They had asked Buhari what plans he has for throwing up a mentee who would succeed him as president in 2023. The idea of succession planning is better known to human resources experts in the corporate sector, where it is viewed as an overall part of talent development crucial for success.

It is often  argued that succession planning, the ladder by which most personnel reach the top  is undertaken to the extent that it enhances the intellectual capital of organizations, motivates workers to stay on in the assurance that, all being well, they can one day wear the top hat in the organization. Not just that, when Chief Executive Officers are appointed from outside the corporation, which happens sometimes in times of crisis, such appointees have a huge learning curve. Applied to politics, succession planning possesses advantages, but it is not without problems. Even in established democracies, it sometimes works but often does not, especially when it comes to the number one job. In the United States, for example, according to one report there is no example in nearly seven decades of a two term president being succeeded by a member of his own party. In other words, where the voter is king, a succession plan, however diligently undertaken may come to grief if the party is not returned to office.

Elsewhere, there are a few and isolated cases of national leaders grooming their successors and standing with them through the process of election. Often quoted in this connection are the famous words a former British Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, who reminisced in her biography: "But there was one more duty I had to perform, and that was to ensure that John Major was my successor. I wanted to believe that he was the man to secure and safeguard my legacy and to take our policies forward". It is remarkable that Thatcher secured her resolution, getting Major to be Prime Minister, without throwing the British Electoral System into jeopardy. Please note that, not only had Major been both Foreign Secretary and Chancellor of the exchequer but was also a senior member of Thatcher's administration, which is to say, somebody you could call a true believer in Thatcherism, attested by performance in office. Also, this was no shabby deal in which an incumbent was desperately sourcing for someone to cover her back, but a loyalist with shared vision about the future of the British State.

In more recent times, there has been much discussion about a successor to the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has ruled Germany since 2005. There is talk about Ms Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, popularly known as AKK, becoming Merkel's successor, especially after she was elected General Secretary of the ruling Christian Democratic Union, a position once held by the incumbent. Indeed, she already is being addressed as mini Merkel, notwithstanding that there are other hopefuls. Observe please that Karrenbauer has paid her dues within the ideological framework and vision jointly shared by mentor and mentee. We are also dealing, in contrast to the Nigerian situation, with a playing field, where parties are coherent, fairly stable with pronounced ideational and intellectual leanings.

Coming to the African and Nigerian contexts, grooming and succession planning will be extremely difficult, because politicians have very fickle allegiance to their parties, and are prepared to jump ship if personal gains are threatened. How do you groom a successor if you are not even sure your mentee will still be a member of your party when the next election arrives? A related point is that succession planning is meaningless when there are no shared creeds or overarching vision beyond the desire to gain and sustain office.  That is not all, the turbulence of Nigerian politics is such that a groomed successor cannot be counted upon to remain loyal once the mentor or godfather turns his back or exits office. There are several cases at the level of the states where godsons, in oedipal fights, turned on their godfathers, rubbishing all their achievements. The same scenario has also played out in other African countries, amplifying the shallowness and constantly shifting nature of allegiances, and alliances.

Let me illustrate this syndrome with reference to the anti corruption policy, considered the flagship of the current administration. You hardly find, as this columnist had repeatedly complained, state governors in the mould of Buhari, reading the riot act to commissioners when they are being sworn in. Were this to happen, it will nicely complement, perhaps even redefine Buhari's moral reformism and the imperative to sanitize the polity. There was a time when the former Minister for Justice and Attorney General SAN, Abubakar Malami was considered a mini Buhari, in the context of the last Federal Executive Council; regrettably however, that image disappeared in the face of contradictions and omissions. At the time, he came across as a lone supporter or advocate, at the highest level of government of Buhari's reformism. What am I driving at?

Even granting that the anti-corruption policy is itself vulnerable, hobbled by partisanship, funding matters and flagging zeal, it provides a minimal context within which we can begin to talk of succession planning in respect of Buhari's legacy. As pointed out however, those who have bought into this vision, across the nation, are few and far between. Party loyalty is a candidate for mentoring possibilities, but even this is dodgy, in the absence of clear ideological leanings. Consequently, we are left with a situation where there are no clear or cogent premises beyond ethnicity, noise making and a deep pocket to anchor the search for a successor.

Undoubtedly, therefore, Buhari is right in disparaging the idea of political succession, given the odds against it. The odds are buttressed by the risks associated with revealing a possible successor, so early in the day, creating thereby, a setback for the named successor. As a strategist, Buhari is correct in saying that he would have created more problems for such a person, in a terrain where the presidency is a hotly contested position, and confers imperial powers on its occupants.

As an alternative to the fluid and uncertain nature of a succession plan, which may be voided if the ruling All Progressive Congress does not win the 2023 elections, we can seek to build a political leadership stratum, driven by shared concerns value creation, and social imagination, with the intention of bringing about, in broad terms, a new set of leaders, who are minded to pursue political and social changes, and to make life more meaningful for Nigerians.

Prof. Ayo Olukotun is the Oba (Dr.) Sikiru Adetona Professorial Chair of Governance, Department of Political Science, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye.

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