--
Indeed, the involvement of both France and Libya in the instabilities of Chadian regimes since independence should be a matter of concern to AU.
These principalities must be told by AU in no uncertain terms that only an AU backed and supervised transition will do for the long term stability of the region.
OAA
Sent from my Galaxy
-------- Original message --------From: Femi Kolapo <kolapof@uoguelph.ca>Date: 23/04/2021 17:55 (GMT+00:00)Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Deby
I suspect that this might again be a tough call for the AU to answer. Your analysis and every other one I have read so far show the critical stabilizing role of Chad in this subregion and the necessity of maintaining that stability which is clearly currently gravely threatened. I can imagine all the governments neighboring Chad, including especially Nigeria, to be more concerned that the country holds together than want to push the unstable situation further down the unpredictable direction that might echo the Libya debacle. The French presence is a very complicating one. But it might actually help with stabilizing things. Given the seeming vulnerability of General Kaka and his supporters at the moment, the AU should be able to insist to the junta that the transition period be cut back to between 6 and 12 months; that Derby's son and all soldiers not participate in the forthcoming elections; insist on its presence and participation in the transition process; help begin a process that gives all opposition groups a sense that their voices would be heard and that they could hold back their guns. The AU also should use this opportunity to engage with and have some more influence over the manner of France's military activities in this area.
Femi J. Kolapo | Department of History | www.uoguelph.ca/history
College of Arts | University of Guelph | 50 Stone Rd E | Guelph ON | N1G 2W1
From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Jibrin Ibrahim <jibrinibrahim891@gmail.com>
Sent: Friday, April 23, 2021 7:49 AM
To: 'chidi opara reports' via USA Africa Dialogue Series <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Deby--CAUTION: This email originated from outside of the University of Guelph. Do not click links or open attachments unless you recognize the sender and know the content is safe. If in doubt, forward suspicious emails to IThelp@uoguelph.ca
--Deby's Death, Security in the Lake Chad Basin and Democracy
Jibrin Ibrahim, Deepening Democracy Column, Daily Trust, 23rd April 2021
On 2nd December 1990, Deby shot his way into Chad's presidential palace after an epic battle with his former boss and mentor turned enemy, Hisene Habre. For his 30 years in power, it has been a series of rebellions, bloody conflicts, intrigues and coup attempts. Alongside the instability, elections have been holding and he was killed the day after he had been declared winner of the recently concluded election and was to be sworn in for his sixth term. Alas the self-declared Field Marshall was no more. But then as we all know, old soldiers never die, they only fade away, so his 37-year old son, General Mehemet Idriss Deby, organised a coup the same day, suspended the Constitution, dissolved Parliament and set up a ruling military council, for which, he is the supreme commander. Human rights groups and opposition parties in Chad and other African countries immediately opposed the coup in conformity with the African Union Charter. The African Union was quiet. The French Foreign Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian immediately justified and supported the coup due to what he called the "exceptional circumstances" in the country.
Maybe, there can be no deep sentiments that a coup had occurred in Chad because there was no democracy in the first place. Nonetheless, we cannot continue to talk about zero tolerance to unconstitutional change in power and openly or tacitly support a coup d'état. In the run up to the election, Deby set the tone by killing in a brazen attack on the home of a political opposition leader and presidential candidate Yaya Dillo on February 28, killing his 80-year-old mother and wounding five other family members. Dillo got the message and immediately withdrew from the contest. Chad's security forces ruthlessly cracked down on protesters and the political opposition in the lead-up to the country's April 11, 2021 presidential election making it clear to Chadians' that the choice is between death or re-electing Deby. The people are never stupid, they re-elected him, after all, almost the entire opposition and human rights leaders that had not fled the country or were in jail. Seventeen candidates had submitted their applications to contest the presidential election. On March 3, Chad's Supreme Court stated that only 10 of them were qualified, rejecting the remaining candidates on grounds that their parties were not "legally constituted. Following the deadly raid on Dillo's home, most of the remaining candidates withdrew.
The outcome of the Deby years has been instability, repression and death. The country has an appalling rate of poverty, despite the country's vast oil resources. Chad was placed last in the World Bank's 2020 Human Capital Index, while the United Nations Development Programme ranked Chad 187 out of 189 countries in its 2020 human development index. The President and his many children who occupy virtually all the plum positions in the country's governance structure are however extremely wealthy, a banal statement, after all is this not the African reality.
Deby only knew war and was a graduate of Muammar Gaddafi's World Revolutionary Centre. He had made his reputation in what was known as the "Toyota War" between Chad and Libya which lasted for nine months from December 1986 to September 1987. That was just one of the long running series of conflicts between both countries that stretched back to 1978. It was a decisive victory for the heavily outnumbered Chadian forces and the Libyan leader, Muammar Gaddafi, was impressed by Deby's military skills, so he recruited him with the offer of support to seize power in Chad in exchange for Libyan prisoners of war. In November 1990, Deby attacked Hissène Habré's government from Sudan, and by early December, had seized power.
The Chadian army has remained extremely strong as a fighting force and has been playing a significant role in the fight against the insurgency in the Sahel. Remember when the Jihadi insurgents were marching to takeover Bamako, the Malian capital, it was French and Chadian troops that stopped them and Africa has since regretted the end of Nigeria's capacity as a fighting force to help its neighbours. In the Lake Chad countries, Chad has also been noted for the effectiveness of its battles against Boko Haram, even if it had been unable to win the war. Deby's death is bad news for Nigeria, Cameroon and Niger because Boko Haram may become emboldened and increase its attacks. Deby, last year, personally led his troops to the Lake Chad zone after some attacks on Chadian soldiers, he battered them and the remnants ran back to Nigeria, where apparently, they felt more at home. Niger them negotiated for the deployment of Chadian forces in their country to contain their activities. ISWAP, which is the Boko Haram faction operating in the Lake Chad zone, might use the opportunity to consolidate the area as a staging area for the insurgents from where to launch attacks on towns and military bases. Over the past couple of months, there has been repeated attacks on Damasak and Dikwa, the Nigerian towns close to the Chadian border.
Deby the son apparently has real challenges consolidating his power. The rebel forces that apparently killed his father, have announced that they will continue their march on capital and rout out the Deby clan from power. Meanwhile, we are just assuming that Deby was killed by the rebels, there are rumours of internal fights within his own regime that might have led to his death, even if this thesis is still speculation fuelled by lack of information on the circumstances that led to his death.
President Deby had visited President Buhari on 28 March for bilateral talks, around security issues in the region. His death, at a time when Boko Haram attacks are increasing is concerning. The rebels from Libya currently marching towards the Chadian capital are engendering an even higher level of concern. Do they have links with other jihadist groups in the Sahel and what would be their attitude towards Boko Haram? One year before his death, Deby had led his men on an offensive to the Goje-Chadian area of Sambisa forest, a stronghold for Boko Haram, killed many, and recovered a lot of their arms. The success of the war against Boko Haram is dependent of effective collaboration within the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF). Increased instability in Chad can only harm the effort. The Chadian rebels seeking power may also increase arms flow in the sub-region.
Africa and Nigeria have questions to answer. Will they quietly accept the coup d'état and the 18-months transition announced in Chad? What has happened to the African Union tradition that in situations of coup d'état, especially involving killing of a Head of State, they would generally intervene swiftly against the putschists, even if in this case, there is the complication that the rebels, who might have killed the President, were not the ones that took over power? Will the African union read continuity of father to son even if the son is a coup maker?
Professor Jibrin IbrahimSenior FellowCentre for Democracy and Development, AbujaFollow me on twitter @jibrinibrahim17
Listserv moderated by Toyin Falola, University of Texas at Austin
To post to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com
To subscribe to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue+subscribe@googlegroups.com
Current archives at http://groups.google.com/group/USAAfricaDialogue
Early archives at http://www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa/ads/index.html
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "USA Africa Dialogue Series" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to usaafricadialogue+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/usaafricadialogue/CAPWX8rX%3DAuw3%2BSqgyRvWCw0noX5WieDo3TU1DAys3mCkCmXt0g%40mail.gmail.com.
Listserv moderated by Toyin Falola, University of Texas at Austin
To post to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com
To subscribe to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue+subscribe@googlegroups.com
Current archives at http://groups.google.com/group/USAAfricaDialogue
Early archives at http://www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa/ads/index.html
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "USA Africa Dialogue Series" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to usaafricadialogue+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/usaafricadialogue/YT1PR01MB3084A7BBFE58F5CE5E073C9DBF459%40YT1PR01MB3084.CANPRD01.PROD.OUTLOOK.COM.
Listserv moderated by Toyin Falola, University of Texas at Austin
To post to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com
To subscribe to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue+subscribe@googlegroups.com
Current archives at http://groups.google.com/group/USAAfricaDialogue
Early archives at http://www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa/ads/index.html
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "USA Africa Dialogue Series" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to usaafricadialogue+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/usaafricadialogue/DB6PR04MB298217324E33F11B24A5A0ADA6429%40DB6PR04MB2982.eurprd04.prod.outlook.com.
Listserv moderated by Toyin Falola, University of Texas at Austin
To post to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com
To subscribe to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue+subscribe@googlegroups.com
Current archives at http://groups.google.com/group/USAAfricaDialogue
Early archives at http://www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa/ads/index.html
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "USA Africa Dialogue Series" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to usaafricadialogue+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/usaafricadialogue/CAP8anv2kFodeP5S%3D6ZdvDNzr8N0N9qNvdG98B3tB02%2B8p3jxAQ%40mail.gmail.com.
No comments:
Post a Comment