Thursday, July 7, 2022

Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - ASSAULTS ON KUJE AND PRESIDENTIAL CONVOY: MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS

Fine insights as Olukotun discharges his self assigned duty.

But is he not too cautious, thereby leading to always being slow-apologies to him-to grasp or present developing patterns?

Olukotun seems to have only just stated that a govt related conspiracy is afoot or is likely to be afoot. When will he join the dots between Miyetti Allah Fulani supremacists, Fulani herdsmen militia terrorism, Buhari and his Fulani herdsmen militia and Boko Haram sympathies, Fulani bandits and OBJ's statement of fears of Fulanisation and Islamisation?

Will he wait until the terrorists are in Aso Rock before asking questions about the manner and the degree of intentionality in Buhari's enablement of these networks?

thanks

toyin



On Thu, 7 Jul 2022 at 17:18, 'Ayo Olukotun' via USA Africa Dialogue Series <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com> wrote:

ASSAULTS ON KUJE AND PRESIDENTIAL CONVOY: MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS

Ayo Olukotun

 

Last week, when this columnist lamented the curious and mysterious silence of the political class on insecurity going gaga, little did I know that bigger assaults on the Nigerian State were just ahead. On Tuesday, attacks by presumed terrorists were made on the presidential convoy which had gone ahead as an advance party to Daura, the hometown of Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) in preparation for his arrival to celebrate Sallah in his nativity. I am not all that young, nonetheless I do not recall any such incident in my adult. An equally disquieting confrontation claimed by the Islamic State West Africa Province to be their handiwork occurred on Tuesday night, when in a dramatic raid and forcible entry into the medium security correctional institution at Kuje, close to 800 prisoners were let loose.

Jail breaks have escalated in the last three years encompassing the incidents at Jos, Kano, Owerri, Oyo among others. That notwithstanding, the Kuje bombardment is in a class of its own, given its proximity to the very seat of government, the close to sixty Boko Haram prisoners lodged there and the apparent ease with which what was supposed to be a fortress was demystified. A miffed Buhari visited the scene, probably on his way out of the country, and asked questions which sounds rhetorical as to why it was so easy for the terrorists to organise, arm themselves and successfully unleash such an attack without being effectively resisted, combated or immediately arrested. He went on to express disappointment at the disheveled state of the country's intelligence, wondering if there were no CCTV cameras to at least record the frightening incident. The questions are pertinent but they raise further questions, one of which is: Are we to believe that in the process of routine communication with the nation's chief security officers or his appointees the true state of the prison was not known? If indeed this is the case, then the questions might only be opening a Pandora's box concerning the true state of our security infrastructure and elite institutions.

Consternation has raged back a nd forth with security experts weighing in to ask how a nation which military prowess was once admired on the continent came to this sorry pass. For those who do not yet understand the gravity of the situation or indeed its wider implications, let me build the scenario hypothetically that this was an invasion of the nation's capital. Imagine the circumstance whereby between 11pm and 1am, there were loud gunshots, explosions and raids in Abuja with no one apparently able to stop them. God forbid, but this would mean that an enemy group had successfully occupied Abuja and taken the country captive. The hypothetical scenario may appear far-fetched but bear in mind that every invasion by foreign adversaries is preceded by test-runs or what strategists call reconnaissance. In other words, what just happened in Kuje and on the journey to Daura are best productively viewed as a foreign adversary mounting surveillance attacks in the preparation for a bigger project of destruction.

One does not have to be an expert in strategy to understand the logic of escalation in warfare once the enemies within and without have successfully located the soft underbelly of the target and undertaken successful dress rehearsals for the big catch. Sadly and tragically, a once luminous and potentially great country has been reduced to a porous entity by a combination of factors which may include dereliction, sabotage, complicity of insiders, substituting pronouncements for strategy as well as failing to take the necessary steps to secure the country in the face of enemy action that has gone on for several eyes.

Of course, there are several conspiracy theories about these events including whether there is indeed a plot to lay Nigeria waste in order to turn it into a sitting duck for an army of occupation. Yes, we cannot go by conspiracy theories, but please remember that in security and warfare, one of the key insights of para-linguistics is that it is not only what people are saying that counts but what they may be strategically omitting to say or talk about. That is to say if a government continues to give assurances of being on top of a situation and has pointedly refused to seek international assistance while swathes of Nigerians continue to lose their lives and important institutions such as the Nigeria Defence Academy, Kaduna, and the Kuje correctional center are being successfully stormed, then the discourse must be widened beyond flimsy talk.

Up till today, it is a mystery beyond the rhetorical questions posed by Buhari that such challenges including occupation of territory had taken place while a good section of the political class, a majority, can be said to be sleeping on duty. Nigerians are slowly becoming witnesses of their own long running captivity, partly because those in positions to make their views known have chosen to trade silence for office. Go across the Atlantic and take note of how forty ministers including other high state officials resigned their positions en masse in order to force the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, to resign his office. I know that we don't have a culture of resignation on principle but one of cringing and lobbying desperately to either gain or retain office. That may, in fact, be one of the reasons why many in the political class cannot afford to volunteer a statement or mount a press conference to talk about national security; but if politicians fail, must the entire nation be dragged along the path of infamy because of their silence?

This is not a time to hide behind idle slogans, politically correct speeches and postures devoid of gravitas when the nation is so mortally afflicted and youths are escaping the distress and uncertainty with the anthem "ja pa" (get out of the country real fast). For those whose preeminent concern is to rule the country, it may not matter how bad things get so long as they can rule either as chairman of their local governments, members of the House of Representatives, senators and president or vice-president.

As I mentioned last week, we once had politicians who did thorough research to pinpoint governance issues and to propose solutions eliciting widespread debates on topical issues. With a few honourable exceptions, this is no more the case. Apart from the interventions of the legislature often treated contemptuously by the executive, nobody is talking outside of civil society activists and a few state governors.

It would be nice to imagine that what have taken place this week would jerk a slumbering nation awake and that Nigeria will be pulled back from the brink of catastrophe but will this happen? If this hopeful scenario will play out, then those directly responsible must be made to account for their conduct which has unleashed on an already troubled nation terrorists, hitherto kept in the correctional institution at Kuje. Second, all the advance warnings and intelligence briefs such as the occupation in parts of Niger and Kwara State, should no longer be treated with disdain but should attract vigorous attraction.

Finally, like nations that aspire to live long and thrive, counter-insurgency and combating insecurity should no longer be treated with kids' gloves.

 

Professor Ayo Olukotun is a director at the Oba (Dr.) S. K. Adetona Institute for Governance Studies, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago Iwoye.

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