Monday, September 19, 2022

Re: [External] Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Oil Theft

Prof Ken,

I am not into Political Science or studies but I was about to say that political systems have to be related to development especially considering the development path of China since the Chinese revolution. Now you wrote that the communist party of China is autocratic. I have watched a documentary or read that the communist party actually is based on peculiar representativeness. I think that people desiring a peculiar democracy for Africa or different nations are actually asking for the Chinese format. Something that is home-grown and still achieves the goal of sustainable development. 

What do we think about this?




Babatunde JAIYEOBA

















E. Babatunde JAIYEOBA PhD
Professor of Architecture
Department of Architecture
Faculty of Environmental Design and Management
Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria

On Sun, Sep 18, 2022 at 6:42 PM Harrow, Kenneth <harrow@msu.edu> wrote:
moses, it is beyond me to speculate intelligently on political systems that work better than others, because i haven't studied them. all i  can really speak out about are values, like fairness or autonomy or agency.
i don't believe in removing agency from any groups of  people, and giving it to others. i am thinking historically of poor people almost everywhere having to be subservient to wealthy people, and that translates into things like the electoral college or the senate, as opposed to the house of representatives, or the house of commons as opposed to the house of lords.

i am intuitively opposed to autocratic systems like the communist party in china or pseudo-elections of presidents in so many states around the world today.
there are certainly lots of alternatives. for instance you criticize winner take all; but if it were a system where the representatives elected are proportional to the vote, it is no longer winner take all, and people's vote would still count.
that seems reasonable or feasible.
the opposite is something like the vanguard of the proletariat theories that were tried with bolshevism. i don't know their virtues, but again my intuition would favor mensheviks.
on the other hand, in our local peace groups, we go for consensus. not majority wins, but everyone has to agree, and if someone doesn't, we talk until a compromise is reached.
another alternative is populism, like that of mussolini, which led to fascism. or to argentinian populism. i reallly don't know how to assess places like argentina.

lastly, as a minority, i oppose any systemss built on exclusion or elimination of minorities. i dson't know how much you know about the history of gypsies--the roma. treated awfully in recent centuries, treated like dirt. even down to today. there are equivalents in africa, the twa for instance in the great lakes region, or their equivalents in many other countries. i don't think about democracies when i appeal to universal rights theory to assure their rights.

and we have not raised any of the old ideals of socialism in this debate very much. a funny old word that somehow got new life with bernie sanders, of all things. even if not meant in the old-fashioned way, which relied on class differences that no longer exist.
ken

kenneth harrow

professor emeritus

dept of english

michigan state university

517 803-8839

harrow@msu.edu


From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Moses Ochonu <meochonu@gmail.com>
Sent: Sunday, September 18, 2022 12:53 PM
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [External] Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Oil Theft
 
Ken,

You and I have had multiple conversations around these issues and it is heartening to see you make the point about the plurality of voting systems and how none is superior or guarantees good governance. Herein lies the problem with ideologies such as liberal democracy, which fetishize individual suffrage and periodic, winner-takes-all elections as superior means to achieve humane and accountable governance while demonizing alternative systems that operate on other democratic norms of elections or selection or a combination of the two. You are relativizing, deconstructing, and circumscribing liberal democracy. That's a great start, something that apostles of liberal democracy are not even willing to countenance. You are pouting us yo countervailing and contrapuntal variables that undercut, predetermine, and in some ways interpellate liberal democracy.

Sent from my iPhone

On Sep 18, 2022, at 9:31 AM, Moses Ebe Ochonu <meochonu@gmail.com> wrote:


Ike Udogu,

Is it not a tad disingenuous for African political scientists like you and Jibrin to say "show us an alternative to liberal democracy and we'll consider it'? You're trained political scientists, for crying out loud. And you're Africans to boot. It is your friggin job to produce a theory of African democracy. It is your job to produce an African alternative (or alternatives) to liberal democracy. Do the job!

Can you imagine Alagoa, Ikime, Dike, Tamuno, Ajayi, and other members of the Ibadan School of History saying in the 1950s and 1960s "show us or produce an alternative African history and we'll consider it"? Can you imagine them saying "give us an alternative to the Eurocentric, imperial rendering of African history and then we can talk"?

Can you imagine Claude Ake saying "give us an alternative to modernization theory and we'll consider it"? 

All these great African scholars and intellectuals didn't sit around sarcastically challenging African critics of Eurocentrism and other imperialist impositions on Africa to come up with alternatives to the vast corpus of Eurocentric theories on and representations of Africa in scholarly canons and praxis. They seized the opportunity to critique the existing paradigms and practices and then proceeded to produce the alternatives to them.

On Sun, Sep 18, 2022 at 9:07 AM Toyin Falola <toyin.falola53@gmail.com> wrote:

Jibrin:

Great response. Here are some challenges:

  1. Can the citizens reform that democracy itself? Yes, and we can fight for this.
  2. Can members of the political class reform themselves and that democracy? This is the greatest challenge. Chaos is the source of their meal ticket.
  3. Can we demonetize that democracy and shifts its dividends to the people?
  4. Can we be more serious in descaling corruption, not eliminating it, as the chances of elimination are small.

 

From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Jibrin Ibrahim <jibrinibrahim891@gmail.com>
Date: Sunday, September 18, 2022 at 7:17 AM
To: 'chidi opara reports' via USA Africa Dialogue Series <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [External] Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Oil Theft

I understand that it is easy for some people to get fed up with liberal democracy and seek alternatives after frustrations around poor operationalisation of the system by practitioners. Recall our history, 1sr Republic lasted six years, 2nd four years, 3rd did not take off and now 4th has been operationalised for 22 years and it still has so many problems. How long has it been in practice in the US and how come it still has problems. We need to be careful in assessing our history, such attitude led to support for militarism and authoritarianism that produced worse results. It easy to say there are better alternatives but the reality is that the alternatives have been tried in different forms of authoritarianism and we know the outcomes.

 

My defence for liberal democracy were published in different CODESRIA outputs in the 1990s, when I was a full time academic in Ahmadu Bello University and those who think I entered the bandwagon when I worked for the Centre for Democracy and Development, (by the way I retired from the Centre in 2013), from 2006 to 2013 need to do some home work..

 

 

 

 

Professor Jibrin Ibrahim

Senior Fellow

Centre for Democracy and Development, Abuja

Follow me on twitter @jibrinibrahim17

 

 

On Sun, 18 Sept 2022 at 02:16, Harrow, Kenneth <harrow@msu.edu> wrote:

i am not very happy with winston churchill's answer or his conservative politics. what is there about his answer which blinded him to the antidemocratic politics of colonialism? i know the answer, since it is already buried in the earlier posting that told us that "developed" nations had valuable knowledge that "underdeveloped" nations needed, like issues of political succession. i am afraid of getting started on that one. how anyone could possibly regard the most highly developed technological and industrial nations as serving as models for poorer, non-industrial nations is a mystery to me, to anyone aware of the horrors of the 20th century. not one single "developed" nation did not engage in the destruction of millions of people in highly developed warfare; and as development is a concept dating to the enlightenment, the same question pertains to slavery or to what i would call industrial slavery as well, conditions of the working class in the early industrial revolution.

 

all the answers about capitalism, socialism, democracy, communism, that we are accustomed to hearing from our youth--in my case from the 1950s on--are inadequate.,.  also for me are other answers, claiming our own, each of us, with our national heritage need to forge systems appropriate to our histories and cultures. that doesn't work for me unless it can be harmonized with the conditions imposed on us by our modes of production, distribution, and consumption, by the technologies with which we live; nor is it adequate if it ignores conditions of exploitation.

 

if the swedish model of social democracy is not enough for a  provisional answer, we have to ask, what is going on in sweden or denmark that they are so hostile to immigrants, so much that sweden would accept neonazis in their new ruling coalition. i await cornelius's answer.

 

the countries most reasonable about backing away from violent exploitation or colonial domination are those that lost world war two. if history is written by the winners, perhaps decent politics begins with the losers.

 

as for "liberal democracy," it is too abstract given our global economy which really imposes social orders on all of us, willy-nilly. that has to be a starting point for speculation on social and political orders if it is to be appropriate for our world today

ken

 

kenneth harrow

professor emeritus

dept of english

michigan state university

517 803-8839

harrow@msu.edu


From: 'Emmanuel Udogu' via USA Africa Dialogue Series <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Saturday, September 17, 2022 6:33 PM
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [External] Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Oil Theft

 

Opinion on the issue of Liberal Democracy 

 

I concur with Jibrin on the matter of Liberal Democracy. If anyone has a better system that will work for Nigeria and Africa, please suggest it. I, and other political scientists, will be open to analyzing it. 

 

Indeed, to paraphrase Sir Winston Churchil; 

 

"Democracy is a problematic system of governance, except that we are yet to come up with a better model." 

 

I have expressed my opinion on liberal democracy in this forum. Therefore, I will not flog a dead horse on the issue. 

 

I would suggest, however, that we should be less concerned with nomenclature–i.e.,liberal, social, consociational, and "WAZOBIA" democracy, just to list a few. Indeed, what is in a name? Rather, I would suggest that we review the characteristics of the framework–liberal democracy or "Wazobia" democracy to see how efficacious each might be for the Nigerian (or African) system. 

 

In my view, Liberal Democracy has not worked in the Nigerian case because of the character of some of our unpatriotic political actors who act on the basis of the "law of self-interest." They frequently ignore the legal praxis of Liberal Democracy because of their quest for power, money, and fame.  Witness, for example, the messy situation within the People Democratic Party (PDP) since its convention (within the context of the party's constitution). Are most of the politicians interested in the country and its hungry citizens? I don't think so.

 

If you are interested, please read: E. Ike Udogu, Democracy in Africa: Fiction or Fact (A paper presented in Budapest, Hungary, in May 2016).

 

Have a great weekend, y'all!

 

Ike Udogu

 

 

On Sat, Sep 17, 2022 at 3:21 PM Yusuf Adamu <yusufadamu@gmail.com> wrote:

Democracy that is being exported from the West is not for developing countries. Countries cannot and will not develop with democratic principles. It is an alien political system.

Yusuf Adamu 

 

On Sat, 17 Sep 2022, 4:20 pm Jibrin Ibrahim, <jibrinibrahim891@gmail.com> wrote:

T Falola

Please invent a good alternative to liberal democracy then we can talk.


Professor Jibrin Ibrahim

Senior Fellow

Centre for Democracy and Development, Abuja

Follow me on twitter @jibrinibrahim17

 

 

On Sat, 17 Sept 2022 at 15:37, Moses Ebe Ochonu <meochonu@gmail.com> wrote:

You have asked Jibrin a foundational question, one which "pro-democracy" Africans like him hesitate to pose let alone address. This democracy, this liberal democracy, is the death of Nigeria. It is calamitous and has put Nigeria in the abyss. All of these crimes that have been committed under the current regime against Nigeria and her future generations have been committed "democratically," that is, these abuses have been permitted and legitimized by the overbearing executive presidency and the winner-takes-all features of our liberal democratic practice.  

 

This democracy that we adopted (not adapted) uncritically has had a similarly ruinous effect on many other African countries. And yet our people are too lazy and or cowardly to rethink this ill-fitting "democratic" contraption and engineer an African form of representative, accountable, and democratic (yes, democratic) governance.

 

Those who want to advance foundational critiques against the democracy itself (rather than against actions and crimes of individuals permitted under it), are afraid to be called anti-democratic or undemocratic, or, worse, pro-authoritarian. So, we're stuck, accepting the nation-killing abuses of this democracy and wasting our time discussing atmospherics and critiquing the symptoms of a dysfunctional and, in our context, unworkable democracy rather than questioning the democracy itself--the genre of democracy we have uncritically borrowed from Oyinbo people.

 

With Jibin, I am not surprised. He won't give a clear answer to the question you asked him, a question that some of us have been asking in publications and public commentaries for almost 15 years. Jibrin was, for much of his career outside the academy, the head of the Center for Democracy and Development (CDD), a Western-funded pro-democracy NGO, a front for the propagation of liberal democracy in Nigeria. So, it's not surprising that no matter how disastrous our liberal democratic experiment has been and continues to be, Jibrin will remain committed to upholding and, in his famous words, "deepening democracy." The virus that causes the disease and symptoms he criticizes in his write-ups, liberal democracy, remains sacrosanct, beyond critique.

 

On another note, I read his current piece. I saw him name and skewer a variety of culprits for Nigeria's current state of insecurity and bankruptcy. His villains range from governors to officials of the NNPCL and the CBN, to "pirates," to Tompolo, to officials of the ministry of finance, to the security agencies, to unnamed officials of the government. Curiously missing from his list of culpable entities is the biggest one of all, Buhari, the man who appointed all these corrupt and misbehaving officials or supervises the rotten institutions, and under whose leadership said historic profligacy, criminal borrowing, and rapacious theft are happening. 

 

Does the buck no longer stop at the desk of the president? Reading Jibrin, one would be tempted to think that either he assumes that Nigeria does not have a leader or that there's some subconscious rule or logic that prevents him from naming the man who has led Nigeria into this mess, this "madness" as Jibrin calls it.

 

On Sat, Sep 17, 2022 at 2:53 AM Toyin Falola <toyinfalola@austin.utexas.edu> wrote:

Great Jibrin:

So, the state cannot secure a single means of its survival?

The Pharoah could not extract grains from peasants, but he wanted a pyramid as its tomb.

I have been asking you the same question for years: why are you committed to this democracy?

TF

 

From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Jibrin Ibrahim <jibrinibrahim891@gmail.com>
Date: Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 2:40 AM
To: 'chidi opara reports' via USA Africa Dialogue Series <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Oil Theft

Oil Theft and Collapse of the Nigerian Rentier State

Jibrin Ibrahim, Deepening Democracy Column, Daily Trust, 16th September 2022

On Tuesday, Thisday newspaper carried a disturbing headline. Nigeria's petrol subsidy bill is skyrocketing this year and by the end of December, the total bill would be $9.8 billion. This would exceed the total expenditure by all the states of the federation in 2021. This information is in a new report by a member of President Muhammadu Buhari's Economic Advisory Council and Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company Limited (FDC), Mr. Bismarck Rewane. Meanwhile the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has come out to confess that its revenue has collapsed due to massive crude oil theft. 
With oil theft and illegal bunkering taking as much as 400,000 barrels per day of the country's oil production, Rewane said as much as $1.2 billion was lost to the menace every month, which was the combined budget of Osun, Ekiti and Kwara in 2021.

The Rewane report adds that between 2015 to 2020, $5.5 billion was spent on subsidy, in 2021 alone it went up to $3.8 billion, and $6.2 billion in just the first quarter of 2022. There is no other word for it but madness. Nigeria in its moment of greatest need due to the collapse of revenue inflows, is suddenly bloating figures of petrol imports and subsidy. As it has no money to pay, it is borrowing massive amounts of money to pay subsidy for petrol, most of it bogus. Attempts by the National Assembly to establish what exactly is Nigeria's average daily petrol consumption has been obfuscated by NNPCL, Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank. The Nigerian Government is behaving like pirates raiding a ship, carrying all the valuables and then sinking the ship as they return to their ship. In our case however, what is being destroyed is Nigeria and very clearly, those in charge will loot everything, including the future wealth of our grandchildren, which they have already mortgaged and most likely move to Dubai after jumping ship.

Massive theft at the federal level is replicated at the state level. Many state governments continued to pile up debts and stealing the borrowed money they are getting in. They do not even bother to pay salaries. State Governors today live between Abuja and their foreign primary homes and hardly visit the states they are supposed to be governing. They have chosen their camp and it is not they state they are supposed to be ruling.

The federal government recently put the current daily spend on maintaining the petrol subsidy at N18.4 billion for 2022.
The Director General of the Budget Office of the Federation, Mr. Ben Akabueze, in an interview, suggested that Nigeria might seek relief from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) if it was unable to address its fiscal challenges. The whole world knows about Nigeria's madness of allowing state sponsored pirates to take over its petroleum production and exports while massively borrowing new money for the same Pirates to steal from. Why would any rational institution come into this crazy trap? When the history of this madness is written, the present regime's economic management team would rise to infamy for continuously asserting we are an under-borrowed country and can continue along the path leaving the deadly legacy to our grandchildren. Maybe it is befitting that the Nigerian state is today reliant on a militant, Mr. Government Ekpemupolo, also known as Tompolo, who got a $1.08 billion to stop the theft. Why not, after all, his name is Government.

Nigeria today has the 25th highest inflation rate in the world, with price rises mainly driven by higher energy and food prices. The naira had lost at least 94.87 per cent of its value in five years, crossing N715/$, before falling to N645/$ recently, and now trading at N703/$. Last week, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies slashed Nigeria's production for the month by 4,000 barrels per day, to 1.826 million bpd, as against the 1.830 million bpd allocated in September. But Nigeria had even before then been unable to meet all of its production allocation, hitting just 1.083 million bpd in the July assessment and falling even lower to 972,000 barrels in August says the Rewane report.

A rentier state is one that is dependent on a narrow single extractive source of revenue such as crude oil. Such states are totally dependent on that source and in normal situations would do everything in their power to protect it. The Nigerian ruling class is so irresponsible that it is unable, maybe unwilling to protect its source of revenue. A few weeks ago, a super tanker with capacity to carry three million litres of crude was discovered and an alert sent to arrest it. It allegedly escaped as if it was a small speed boat carrying 100 litres of crude. For a super tanker like that to allegedly escape, it must have the support of the political and security hierarchy in addition to the NNPCL authorities that certify legitimate carriers. 

What this means is that within the establishment, there is no one working to serve the interests of Nigeria. For the pirates that are ruling and ruining our country, their commitment to stealing all our resources is that only thing that matters. They are comforted by the knowledge that there is no sheriff in town to question or checkmate their activities. It is very clear where the current dynamics are leading the Nigerian state to – collapse and dismemberment. The onus is on us, 200 million citizens, to elect the government we deserve that can engage the path of salvation and reconstruction. The consequences of state collapse are too serious to accept for the largest population of Black people in the world.

 

 

 

Professor Jibrin Ibrahim

Senior Fellow

Centre for Democracy and Development, Abuja

Follow me on twitter @jibrinibrahim17

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