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Michael Winiarski: Harris' decline over the past month is unequivocal
One week until the presidential election and the negative trend for Kamala Harris has not been broken. Donald Trump leads in several opinion polls, although the distance is small and within the statistical margin of error. Other measurements show a dead run. But Harris' decline over the past month is unmistakable.
There are several reasons why Trump has succeeded so well in the election campaign and that many prognosticators are tipping a victory for the former president. More voters believe they were better off financially when Trump was president than during the four years of President Joe Biden and Vice President Harris. This despite the fact that US growth is high and unemployment is low.
Trump also has more people with him than Harris on how the refugee and migration crisis at the US border with Mexico should be handled.
The latest polls show that Trump and Harris are basically tied, 48.5 to 48.4 percent of the vote. It's a setback for Harris, who at the end of September led Trump 49-46 in the compilation of a large number of polls constantly updated by Real Clear Politics .
To the extent that there is any distance between Harris and Trump, it is within the statistical margin of error. This means that it is not possible to say which of them will get the most support in the election next Tuesday.
To the extent that there is any distance between Harris and Trump, it is within the statistical margin of error. This means that it is not possible to say which of them will get the most support in the election next Tuesday.
The development over time speaks for Trump. Harris' momentum peaked in late August, but that narrow lead began to fade in early September, and the decline has continued. If the curve points in the same direction in the week remaining until Election Day, most things point to Trump going past Harris.
Then we only talk about the numbers that apply to "the popular vote", i.e. how Americans all over the United States vote. Looking at the seven swing states that will actually decide the election (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina), Trump is already leading according to most polls, although they are also within the statistical margin of error.
The development curve in all measurements, whether it is about the decisive states or nationally, has moved in Trump's favor.
The development curve in all measurements, whether it is about the decisive states or nationally, has moved in Trump's favor. If Trump's election results also exceed the opinion polls, as happened in both 2016 and 2020, it could very well be a major victory in the Electoral College.
Where does Trump get his support from? On the one hand, there are the general election issues, mainly the economy and migration, where Trump has greater voter confidence than Harris. For one thing, only 28 percent of Americans answer yes to the question of whether the country is "on the right track" or not.
Harris is burdened by having been vice president for nearly four years, and thus co-responsible for Biden's governance. For independent voters and "swing voters", she has not wanted to explain how her policy will differ from Biden's. Harris has not gained traction for any vision of the future of his own, but primarily attacked Trump for benefiting his billionaire friends and being a danger to Americans' freedoms and America's democracy.
A warning sign for Harris is the many polls that show that Trump is advancing in several important voter categories and that Harris is losing compared to Biden.
A warning sign for Harris is the many polls that show that Trump is advancing in several important voter categories and that Harris is losing compared to Biden.
One such key group is the working class, especially the unionized class, which has traditionally been a safe category for the Democrats. Most unions have expressed their support for Harris. But the members are more divided than before. Among members of the Teamsters, which organize truck drivers, 60 percent support Trump, and this year refrained from endorsing either candidate.
Another important group is the African Americans, barely 15 percent of the US population. Harris wins the majority of that group. But the margin looks set to be smaller than for Biden, who received around 90 percent of the black vote. According to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, Harris has only 70 percent support among black voters.
Latin Americans, who make up 18 percent of the population, are another important voter group. According to USA Today/Suffolk, Harris leads Trump 49-38 in that category. If it turns out to be the election numbers, it's a setback compared to four years ago. Then Biden got 59 percent of the Latino vote.
Women have in modern times voted more Democratic than Republican, and vice versa for men. Now the gender gap is bigger than ever. According to Suffolk's poll, Trump leads among men with 53 percent to 37 percent for Harris. In turn, Harris leads among women with almost the same numbers: 53 percent to 36 percent for Trump.
In recent decades, voter turnout among women has consistently been 3 percentage points higher than among men. It benefits Harris if it stands in this year's election. The outcome of the election can thus be decided by who succeeds best in mobilizing: Harris of the women or Trump of the men.
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