| To strike or not to strike Iran? That is the question
'Tell me how this ends,' said General David Petraeus, famously, in 2003, as American forces prepared to invade Iraq. That's a pertinent question to be asking now, as President Donald Trump continues to contemplate a US military strike on Iran in the coming days. Yet it's hard to see much evidence that anybody senior within his administration is seriously considering the secondary or tertiary consequences of such an action. For Trump, the question is simple: do we want Iran to have a nuclear bomb? If the answer is no, it's bunker-bombs away – unless Iran dramatically caves to America's demands that it disbands its nuclear programme.
What is clear is that, in recent days, Trump turned away from the influence of Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and other figures, such as under-secretary of defense for policy Elbridge Colby, who wanted him to resist Israel's appeals for direct US action.
What's less evident is who exactly the senior officials in Trump's ear urging him to war, war, not jaw, jaw are. As I say in this week's Spectator, certain senior cabinet officials may be involved, yet none of them wants to be seen as the warmonger on the inside. If America does get sucked into a protracted and painful conflict, Trump's voters will be quick to identify and blame any bellicose Slytherins who happen to be close to him.
Vice-President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, both of whom have an eye on the presidential race in 2028, are expressing their loyalty to Trump while not rattling their sabres too conspicuously. The more intriguing actor in the Iran drama might be Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, who is widely considered a blowhard and an empty vessel – yet who has already shown considerable survival skills in the vicious jungle of Trumpism.
Unlike Trump's now-departed national security adviser Mike Waltz, Hegseth did not lose his job after the Signalgate saga in March, even though he did share highly sensitive details about a mission in Yemen on an insecure group chat. In the security establishment knife-fight that followed, however, he lost several of his most senior advisers, including the realist veteran Dan Caldwell. So now Hegseth is in the peculiar position of being a political neophyte running a massive government department (with an annual budget of nearly $1 trillion) without much of a top team.
Several reports this week suggest that, when it comes to the Middle East, Hegseth has palmed off quite a lot of the responsibility on to four-star general Erik 'the Gorilla' Kurilla. 'He's got the look of the general that both Hegseth and Trump are looking for,' one ex-official told the Daily Beast. 'He's a big dude, he's jacked, he's [got] exactly this "lethality" look they're going for.' Kurilla runs Central Command, or CENTCOM, which controls US forces across the Levant. According to Politico, if the Gorilla said 'jump', Hegseth would reply 'how high'. He's also enjoyed a number of meetings with Trump, who's known to be easily impressed by big men in uniform.
The Gorilla is understood to be thumping his chest for more direct involvement of US forces in the Middle East and, sure enough, the Trump administration seems to be on the brink of escalating America's role in the war on Iran.
Another report yesterday from Axios suggests that Trump has begun to express doubts as to whether America's much-vaunted bunker-busters could in fact destroy the site at Fordo, suggesting perhaps that he may prefer to let Israeli special forces conduct an operation to degrade the site.
Pentagon officials allegedly informed the President that its massive bombs would do the job, but apparently he wasn't entirely convinced. Is he listening to the more dovish voices in his other ear? Despite the angry words on all sides, Steve Witkoff is still conducting talks with Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, even if Iran's position remains that it will not agree to negotiations without an immediate Israeli ceasefire. Earlier today, Trump responded to an extremely hawkish Wall Street Journal editorial. 'The Wall Street Journal has No Idea what my thoughts are concerning Iran!' Might Trump then be about to attempt a late, and at this stage highly surprising, peace deal? We'll find out soon enough if not. |
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