Wednesday, July 31, 2019

USA Africa Dialogue Series - Magnificent Interview on Nigeria Within the Community of Nations : Akin Oyebode on Security Crisis in Nigeria

A magnificent Interview with Akin Oyebode on the state of Nigeria in relation to the international community, specifically Nigerian President Muhammdau Buhari in relation to trans-national Fulani ethnicity in relation to the current security crisis in Nigeria centred on Fulani herdsmen and bandit terrorism, in relation to South Africa, China and India and a summation of the Buhatri govt as a former advocate of the govt.

The level of critical knowledge dramatized in the interview demonstrates the man is truly a professor of international law and jurisprudence, his professional designation.





Prof. Akin Oyebode (SAN)

A professor of International Law and Jurisprudence, Akin Oyebode, in this interview with TUNDE AJAJA, speaks on Nigeria's foreign relations, the challenges facing the country and the future of Africa

The President once said the herdsmen killing Nigerians were from Libya, and some people have also said that the insecurity in the country is being fuelled by the influx of foreigners into the country, aided by the ECOWAS protocol that allows freedom of movement of persons among members states. Do we blame the protocol or it's just an excuse?

I can't speak for President Muhammadu Buhari; he has more information than my humble self, but I am aware that Cameroon and Chad are not members of ECOWAS, so if he says the Fulani coming in are from outside, we should look at it critically. For me, Buhari wants to be clever by half by talking of invaders, whereas he's just shopping for an excuse to justify the tyranny of his kinsmen who want to impose themselves on the country. But, let me give you a bit of background; the Fulani originated from Futa Jallon, Senegal, Mali and to some extent Guinea. Even Usman dan Fodio, their arch-priest or father confessor, was not a Nigerian. The Fulani had no state or homestead in Nigeria. They overran the Hausa states in the 19th century and imposed themselves as Emir on them and Usman dan Fodio himself said he had to come and dip the Quran in the Atlantic but the Yoruba people stopped him in Osogbo. People know the Afonja story in Ilorin, and even in the northern fringes of Yorubaland or places like Ikare and Auchi, where they wanted to impose emirs. They wanted to impose themselves and they continued blaming the British for stopping their thrust towards the southern part of the country. So, maybe they (Fulani) wanted to re-establish their caliphate over the whole country and transform Nigeria from a secular state to a caliphate. I don't know what their plans are but I read things from so-called Miyetti Allah and the people who romanticise about overrunning Nigeria. Some of them even claim that Nigeria was ordained by God to be theirs and they have a sacred duty from providence to reclaim what was given to them. If overrunning Nigeria is their game plan, then you can't point fingers at others as being foreigners. As we say in my town in Ekiti, everybody knows his father's house. If they can't point to their parents' houses, then, they would continue to look for places they can overrun.

Are you implying that the Fulani are immigrants?

The fact is that Nigeria seems to be chafing under the intrusion of non-Nigerians who kill mercilessly because they don't have any affinity with any of the ethnic groups inhabiting Nigeria. So, they have been very cruel and inhuman in the way they deal with the farmers. The conflict is almost beyond the comprehension and capacity of Buhari, who is a Fulani. Atiku also claims to be Fulani – because people are disputing the circumstances of his birth – and that was why I didn't vote at the last election because it was a choice between two Fulani, so I didn't bother. I was most times analysing on the television. However, Buhari might want us to forget the fact but some of us will not forget. We know where his sympathy lies. He claims to be a nationalist, but he's not. The Fulani know how to protect themselves. For example, when people talk about the necessity for Buhari to rejig the security apparatus, they don't know who they are talking to. He even confessed a few weeks ago that he has to appoint the people he knows; his kinsmen. It is a Fulani dominated government and that has cost him a lot of credit such that many people don't believe him anymore because he wears tinted glasses to analyse everything going on. Buhari is taking people for granted, but the Yoruba are the most widely educated people in Nigeria; they are wise and so they can see through all the shenanigans of the Fulani potentates who want to impose themselves on the rest of us.

READ ALSO: 13 days after, kidnappers yet to free Siasia's mother

Still on the issue of insecurity, the issue of porous borders has always been a subject of national discourse, how do you reconcile that with the ECOWAS protocol?

At a level, you are right; it's a contradiction but you see Nigeria was a creation of British colonialism. I'm sufficiently familiar with the trajectory of Nigeria to analyse it. Since we were created by the Brits, we had to inherit the borders that they established on the one hand with the French and on the other hand with the Germans. We were at the confab with the Lamido of Adamawa and he was threatening that he would go back to his kith and kin if Nigerians continue to harass him, because the empire of Adamawa was divided with blue pencil by Lord Salisbury, which was drawn to cut off 80 per cent of his territory for the Germans. So, he still has a bulk of his people in Cameroon. Another example of the arbitrariness of Nigerian boundaries is found along the West African coastline, where there are Yoruba speaking people, like in Porto Novo and Cotonou (both in Benin Republic); the Ga in Ghana and even Togo, and that is why you have someone answering (Emmanuel) Adebayo, the footballer. In the eastern part, the boundaries between Cameroon and Nigeria are also not fixed; people criss-cross. For instance, between Nigeria and Niger, there are places that claim to be outside Nigeria but the people there owe allegiance to the Sultan of Sokoto. The classic example is the home of Prof Abubakar. In his family house; the living room is in Nigeria while the bedroom is in Chad. So, we are surrounded by kith and kin. That is why my senior colleague, Prof Asiwaju, who is the foremost expert on Nigerian boundaries, talks about artificial boundaries. However, we should not cry over spilled milk if we truly want a united Africa by 2063, which is 100 years from the founding of the African Union. People are thinking of when Africa would be like Europe so that we would have common currency, flag, free trade area, customs union and an integrated community, which we have yet to achieve. We are still praying and hoping that a day would come when the boundaries would be irrelevant because as Africans our destinies are intertwined.

Are you of the view that Nigeria should have wasted no time in signing the African Continental Free Trade Agreement?

As the largest concentration of black people on earth, we have a stake in the African Union. That is why some of us were perplexed that Buhari was dithering over signing the African Continental Free Trade Agreement. Finally, push came to shove and he had to sign. I don't know his calculation but he likes passing the buck. Someone of great insight and foresight would have signed that agreement earlier as a vote for African unification, but again you can't exceed your limitation. If you are not properly schooled in African politics and if you look at how long it's taking him to have a cabinet, you put a question mark on his claim to fame as a leader. That was why a country of this standing, worth and promise was like perambulating and sleepwalking on the issue. We used to call Goodluck Jonathan clueless but I don't know what to call Buhari. Wednesday made it five months that he won election and it's about two months that he was sworn in, and even though he assured us he would no longer be 'baba-go-slow', one just feels sorry for Nigeria. Look at what President Paul Kagame is doing in Rwanda. The enthusiasm and dynamism that one expects from a country of this worth have been lacking and when you now have a cabinet of lacklustre mediocre in charge of affairs, you just hang your head in shame. Quite seriously, I don't know what (Vice-President Yemi) Osinbajo is still doing there. He is far smarter because I know him; he was my student. A brilliant guy like that should distance himself from mediocrity.

Are you saying the vice-president should have resigned?

That's what I'm saying. He should not have joined him for a second term. For me, he has overstayed his welcome and they are even relegating him to the side. I think a brilliant man like Osinbajo should quit and go back to his ministry or law practice. How does he survive in the welter of suffocating mediocrity that you find there? The Fulani have no little or no regard for him. I would call the whole thing the tyranny of mediocrity; that is the problem Nigeria is facing right now. I feel sorry for the country that we are saddled with such an incompetent leadership, making us the butt of jokes internationally. Quite sincerely, I don't feel comfortable with what is going on and it's a very serious indictment if Nigeria can't throw up a leadership that is superior to what is being offered now. People would just shake their heads and feel pity for us. We only wish Nigeria well. But the time would come when we would have fit and proper persons. This man can't move Nigeria anywhere; the country is collapsing under him. It's the young people I feel sorry for; we are at the departure lounge and I have my boarding pass. I'm just waiting for my flight to be called. At 72, that's enough and out of it, I gave 44 years to Nigeria as an academic. I feel proud to have had that opportunity to serve my country. Nigeria would make it, given the right circumstances.

Do you see Africa being like Europe someday, in terms of cooperation and economic integration?

Hopefully, the day would come maybe in the time of my grandchildren. I'm not an afro-pessimist; I'm very optimistic about the future of Africa. The contradictions in the world would compel us to recognise the worth of collaboration and cooperation between African countries and Africans. I think Africans would throw up leaders that would recognise the imperative of our coming together. We would be forced to recognise that whatever success we put up in Europe, our future is in Africa. I'm a very proud African and I'm proud of my country. I feel we reserve the right to go to heaven the way we want. This is a great country; there are Nigerians working for the National Aeronatics and Space Administration in the United States and there is hardly any university of worth in the world without Nigerian professors. Justice Taslim Olawale Elias was the President of the International Court of Justice, while Prof Thomas Adeoye Lambo was a deputy Director-General at the World Health Organisation. Nigerians have success stories if only we can have enabling environment to self-actualise. Nigerians will make it any day once they have leadership that is inspiring, but I'm sorry Buhari doesn't inspire many people. He doesn't show the requisite personae that could spur people on. Even his claim to integrity has one thing because of the nepotistic attitude that he has in terms of appointment. It's as if the rest of Nigerians are non-starters and I don't believe it. In every part of Nigeria there are success stories. If only you look hard you would find them. So, I'm disgusted by what is going on. But like I said, the contradictions in the world would compel Africans to recognise the worth of cooperation among themselves.

With the kind of projection you have for Africa, do you feel it's needless to review the protocol?

My view is that as a pan-Africanist, I'm perfectly in favour of opening up African countries to other Africans and I'm against xenophobia like you find in South Africa. One reason I have refused to go to South Africa is their attitude. I had been invited to give lectures but I declined because of the visa conditions. I'm not angling to go to South Africa. You can't have an omelette without breaking an egg, and my choice is that we leave that protocol on freedom of movement as it is. It might be a testament to the future and as lawyers would say, in futuro, but it's looking towards a better future for West Africa.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE: Igbo, Niger Delta, Yoruba youths vow to defend South

If we are to leave the protocol as it is, how do we address its huge contribution to the insecurity challenge in the country?

We should tighten our surveillance system using electronic gadgets, not just CCTV. All sorts of things could be used to monitor ingress and egress, as lawyers would say. In this country, we don't even know how many we are; we only live by guessed estimates. Sometimes you hear that we have 201 million people but some of my friends say we are not up to 100 million because, according to them, the economy of Nigeria can't sustain 200 million people. So, let us do an accurate census, but you know there are forces raged against an accurate census because it would expose the lie. When we have an accurate census, it would be the beginning of our journey to modernity. With that, you would know who is who and you can do proper planning and management of the economy. We also have to re-organise ourselves and have proper police, custom and immigration systems. If I were President of Nigeria, one of the first things I would have to do is a proper and accurate census, for planning purpose. Until we have an accurate census we have not started the journey to modernity. There is no part of the country without resources that can be tapped to generate money, so we don't have to go cap in hand in this feeding bottle federalism, as said by Ike Ekweremadu in Toronto during a lecture. He said every month end the states would carry their feeding bottles to Abuja for replenishing and it was a very metaphorical and accurate picture of the situation in Nigeria. We have to reconfigure Nigeria to earn the respect we deserve.

It would seem other African countries are taking Nigeria for granted, with attacks launched against them in South Africa and Ghana?

You remember what Abike Dabiri said a few weeks ago when she was reacting to the case of the UNILAG professor that had to leave Ghana. She said we would not pay them back in their own coin. We are bigger than that. The Ghanaian President ought to apologise to us because if we were to kick Ghanaians out of Nigeria, how would they feel. But we don't want to re-enact that tit-for-tat situation. We are very liberal in Nigeria. It is better to thrive in a better union like West Africa than 'what-I-have-I-hold'. Like Michelle Obama would say; when they go low, we go higher. We can't descend to others' level of myopia.

It seems Nigeria is usually at the centre of mistreatment by other African countries, like South Africa and Ghana, is that the best Nigeria could do?

Nothing comes without a cost and we have to pay some price for the role we are playing in Africa. Like I said, tit-for-tat will not help us in Africa. There are not as many South Africans in Nigeria as we have Nigerians in South Africa. If we say all Nigerians there should come back home, we have almost 40 per cent unemployment in Nigeria and 70 per cent of our population is young population. It's true that South Africa has more capital investment in Nigeria than we have there, so it's not a very streamlined relationship and so it might be cost prohibitive for Nigeria to retaliate against South Africa. I think we have to use diplomacy to impress it on them that we bore the cost of their liberation, and that was why Nigeria was called a frontline state even though we are so far removed from the struggle. There were times Thabo Mbeki and Nelson Mandela stayed in Nigeria, and many of their citizens came to school here. Nigeria paid tremendous dues apropos South Africa's liberation. I think we have to push the envelope to remind them that we played our role when the need arose and they are not the ones to pay us back in counterfeit coins.

Why then is the Nigerian government not doing the needful; rather what we see is that our government only condemns the attacks?

I would look at it as prolongation of the lack of capacity by the government. The former Minister of Foreign Affairs (Geoffrey Onyeama) did not have the requisite push for that office. His father was a judge at the International Court of Justice. He went to Cambridge and he's well educated. But he wasn't decisive and he's too calm. Locally, we have no radical stance but we are looking for direct foreign investments and when you are a beggar country, there is a limit to the dynamism of your foreign policy. As I said, our foreign policy with respect to that of South Africa has been stymied by the unequal relationship we have with them. When we look at the ledger, the debit side is bigger on our own side. It's asymmetrical and South Africa has greater potential to manipulate the relationship than Nigeria could. Those are unstated facts which nevertheless impinge on the capacity of Nigeria to influence the course of events in South Africa. Of course, we invite the South African ambassador but we don't give him a dressing down because our capacity to do that is limited. Right now, we might loathe to admit it but they seem to be calling the shots and so we have minimal leverage over the course of events. We don't have much to fight with, except emotions.

Does it mean we are completely helpless?

That is not to say we cannot make the necessary noises, but that will not curb the xenophobic attacks. The xenophobes in South Africa are envious of the panache of Nigerians. You know we are a boisterous, loud, brash people and because of that they are not too happy with the way we are carrying on with our enterprises and maybe their women. Nigerians exert themselves anywhere they find themselves while they are not as aggressive as Nigerians. The resentment at the success of Nigerians in South Africa should be properly situated so we recognise that success breeds envy. If the shoe was on the other leg, we would not only scream hell, we would press the button. But, in this case, what buttons can you press than to recall your ambassador to impress it on them that you are not happy with what is happening or you take the matter before the African Union. We can harass them using international law, but if push comes to shove, what else can you do than lay aside and lick your wounds, which is what we have been doing. When your economy is booming, you tend to have greater respect from other countries and as you carry yourself, so would the rest of the world carry you. However, we are still the world's largest black nation. Given our population and market, that gives us some leverage, not considerable, to be seen as an active member of the international community. But it does not give us the thrust. All we need is to tidy up at home and give the rest of the world the impression that we are cleaning up our acts and then we would get the deserved respect.

This issue also seems to be local because you find Nigerians working in Indian and Chinese companies in Nigeria being maltreated. Are we so weak that we also can't protect our own on our land?

The point is well taken. Nigeria is weak, relatively speaking, because we need these foreign direct investments. Whoever dictates the piper calls the tune. Since we depend on foreign investments for the wherewithal for our economy, the capacity to criticise or stand firm to the shenanigans and inanities of foreign investors in Nigeria is severely circumscribed because you are looking up to them to provide employment and pay taxes, which is why we are being taken for granted. There was a time in China that signs hung on restrooms read 'Dogs and Chinese not allowed' in their own country. There were signs prohibiting service to dogs and Chinese in their own country. But now, who can try that. If you are purchasing things from another country, you might have to compromise certain things. That is the reality of the situation. I don't want to be too hard on Nigeria, but foreign policy is a prolongation of domestic policy. If you have a competitive economy and you produce things that find a place in the international market, then you would increase your profile.

Beyond the economy, it seems leadership also plays a role, because Rwanda now commands a lot of respect in Africa and beyond not because of the number of their products in the international market but due to the leadership there. Can we say leadership is also a factor?

You are perfectly on target. Kagame has done a lot to transform the image of Rwanda. Little things matter. So, I agree with you that it's a combination of factors; your economy and the leadership profile that your leadership musters. I almost fell off my chair when Buhari was telling Angela Merkel that the place of his wife was in the other room. I said the woman (Merkel) this man was talking to has PhD in physical chemistry and I said this man sold us short in the international community.

But you supported Buhari in 2015, what changed?

Yes, things changed and like I said, I refused to vote during this past election. I voted for him in 2015; I took the trouble to join the queue and vote for him. I thought anything but Jonathan. Jonathan was clueless but now we got a worse person than Jonathan, so I didn't believe he deserved a second term. Some people taunted me for supporting him but I told them I was extremely sorry. The man is a disappointment and he is severely overrated. Are you proud of a President who takes months before having a cabinet? And when the list finally came out it's a mixed grill, containing, as they say, the good, the bad and the ugly. A mediocre leader can only have persons not superior to him, whether intellectually or in moral probity.

READ ALSO: Ruga shouldn't operate in non-Fulani states – Ganduje

Do you think things would be different this time round?

No, morning shows the day. He promised not to be Baba-go-slow but it has taken him two months to put a cabinet together. What is the magic about a cabinet? I hear he might pick up anybody who is against him; maybe they would come and pick me up.

How do you feel when his followers and some others abuse you for your views on him?

I survived Sani Abacha, and that is why I respect Jonathan. As hard as I was on him, he nominated me to the Council of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs.

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Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Professor Oyebode apologizes for Buhari Vote

'In this age of fake news, Professor Moses Ebe Ochonu will allay my fear of false propaganda by supplying the link or the source of statements attributed to Akin Oyebode.
S. Kadiri '





On Thu, 1 Aug 2019 at 02:28, Salimonu Kadiri <ogunlakaiye@hotmail.com> wrote:
​In this age of fake news, Professor Moses Ebe Ochonu will allay my fear of false propaganda by supplying the link or the source of statements attributed to Akin Oyebode.
S. Kadiri 



Från: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com> för Moses Ochonu <meochonu@gmail.com>
Skickat: den 31 juli 2019 00:20
Till: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Ämne: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Professor Oyebode apologizes for Buhari Vote
 


.
"I voted for him in 2015; I took the trouble to join the queue and vote for him. I thought anything but Jonathan. Jonathan was clueless but now we got a worse person than Jonathan, so I didn't believe he deserved a second term. Some people taunted me for supporting him but I told them I was extremely sorry. ....
This man can't move Nigeria anywhere; the country is collapsing under him. It's the young people I feel sorry for"

—-Professor Akin Oyebode, emeritus professor of constitutional and international law, university of Lagos.



Sent from my iPhone

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Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Professor Oyebode apologizes for Buhari Vote

Toyin:

I've copied and pasted below relevant excerpts from a 2012 draft report that I was involved in drafting for the Office of the National Security Adviser, Abuja. Hopefully, it provides sufficient background to enable you pursue the scenario reports and war games written/engaged in by US security and intelligence agencies between 2008 and 2015. See particularly 

Regards,
Okey
+++++++++++++++++++++++

5. These repeated flare-ups and the widening of fault lines they have equally exposed have been of concern to many Nigerian and non-Nigerian academic and policy analysts. Using the tools of their profession, many of these analysts have conducted scenario studies that stress the urgency of addressing these fault lines and the rising insecurity they generate. Some of these studies, particularly those conducted by scholars and analysts from the United States of America (US), have been predicting the eventual failure of the Nigerian state since the mid-1990s. The most apocalyptic of these US-based scenarios was conducted in 2008 by a team of four Air force officer-engineers at the Air University (AU), Alabama, US entitled Failed State 2030: Nigeria- a Case Study. They used Nigeria to represent its fourth scenario of a failed state in a vital area of US interest as part of a five-part Blue Horizon scenario study. Failed State 2030: Nigeria-a Case Study was later published in 2011. Like other studies by US security and intelligence agencies, this Blue Horizon study reinforced the possibility of Nigeria's failure by 2030 due to the fragilities of a "failed state" deriving from the country's unresolved socio-cultural, political and economic challenges.

 

6. In February 2012, the Office of the National Security Adviser (NSA) to the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria directed the Commandant, National Defence College, Abuja, R/Admiral ... through the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) to make a comprehensive review of the Failed State 2030: Nigeria- a Case Study and offer a counter-strategy on the issues raised in the report. Consequently, in March 2012, the Commandant, NDC duly constituted a committee of NDC directing staff and research faculty composed of Air Cdre ... (Chairman), Prof OC Iheduru (Member), Dr ... (Member) and ... (esq) (Secretary), and mandated them to make a comprehensive review of the publication and offer a counter-strategy on the claims contained in it.

 

 

AIM

7. The aim of this paper therefore, is to appraise the Failed State 2030: Nigeria as a Case Study report with a view to proffering appropriate response strategies to the central challenges identified in this and other similar scenario reports about the future of Nigeria. 

....

18. Given the concerns and the effect a failed or failing Nigeria would have on its interests, various arms of the United States military and security establishments have conducted series of future scenario studies and war games since the mid-1990s in preparation for Nigeria's possible implosion. Most of the scenario projections have come out of the United States National Intelligence Council (NIC). Its most audacious scenario study was a 2005 report suggesting that Nigeria risked disintegration by 2015. The latest scenario study about a possible collapse of Nigeria was conducted by four air force colonels at the US Air University in 2008. Published years later in February 2011, the Failed State 2030: Nigeria—a Case Study contends that Nigeria exhibits extraordinarily complex demographics, culture of corruption, and failing national infrastructure. This is worsened by the country's long history of dangerously destabilizing religious and ethnic violence and potentials for future military coups d'état. It concludes that if urgent steps were not taken to address these danger signals, Nigeria risked collapse in 2030. More importantly, the authors explored the likely technological response of the US air Force to this apocalyptic scenario.

 

 

CONTEXTUALISING AMERICAN "OBSESSION" WITH A FAILING NIGERIA

 

19.   Although the 2011 Air University occasional paper is a student project, many Nigerians are understandably concerned about what may seem like "American obsession" with the possibility of a failed Nigeria. In February 2012, the U. S. ambassador to Nigeria, Terrence McCulley had to embark on an orchestrated campaign to deny media reports and popular concerns among many Nigerians that the U.S. government, rather than U.S.-based researchers and analysts, was the author of these recurring reports of imminent collapse of their country.[i] Whether or not these reports reflect official US government positions, Americans are interested in Nigeria's future for several reasons. Firstly, Nigeria's geo-strategic importance to US energy security has been consistently emphasized by US policy and strategic thinkers: it is estimated that Nigeria and the entire GoG would provide up to 25 per cent of US light, sweet crude oil imports by 2030. Secondly, Nigeria's large and growing population would present a critical challenge to global, and indeed, US economy if it fails. Nigeria's population which has grown at an average rate of 2 per cent since 2008 is projected to reach over 225 million by 2030.  Thirdly, the US expects Nigeria to play a critical role in the development and stability of other African nations, given its strategic position in Africa.

 

20.   In line with these concerns, therefore, US policy and strategic planners have consistently conducted studies and simulated scenarios about Nigeria's possible failure, with a view to avoiding it or recommending ways that the US would respond and cope with its consequences. The US National Intelligence Council (NIC) has played a lead role in these scenario studies. Its 2010 scenario study forecast that Nigeria will not have the potential to play the role of a leader in West Africa because its economic mismanagement, corruption, and political instability will not be resolved over the next 15 years. Similarly, an NIC-sponsored one-day conference of US experts on Africa in January 2005 participants predicted that Nigeria would fail by 2015, if some of its fault lines were not properly managed and controlled.

 

21. The conference concluded that a failed Nigerian state could drag down a large part of the West African region. Clearly, if millions of people were to flee a collapsed Nigeria, the surrounding countries, up to and including Ghana, would be destabilized. Further, a failed Nigeria probably could not be reconstituted for many years if ever, and not without massive international assistance. The 2005 projections on Nigeria elicited so much apprehension that the Olusegun Obasanjo administration promptly arrested the leaders of several militant groups in the country, amongst which were the leaders of 'Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra' (MASSOB), the 'Niger Delta Peoples Volunteer Force' (NDPVF), Asari Dokubo and  Gani Adams of the O'odua People's Congress (OPC).

 

22. The year 2008, however, marked a watershed in United States' interest in the future of Nigeria. This is evidenced by a proliferation of simulation studies and exercises on Nigeria's likely implosion by several US security and intelligence outfits in that year. A National Intelligence Council report entitled "Democratization in Africa: What Progress Towards Institutionalization", published in February 2008, posited that despite the return to democracy in 1999, ethnic and religious conflicts had persisted with an estimated 14,000 deaths in political and communal clashes, with much of the violence taking resource, ethnic and religious tones. This conclusion may have formed the basis for a later report by the same agency in November 2008, where it further asserted that the encroaching desertification in the north as well as the religious clashes between Muslims and Christians, among other factors, point to a conceivable outbreak of another Biafra-like civil war, only this time along North-South lines.  The report entitled "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World" contended further that unless employment conditions change dramatically, Nigeria will remain ripe for continued instability and state failure. It therefore, warned that Nigeria's eventual failure may require military intervention by outside powers to stabilize energy flows and guarantee security in the region, thus reinforcing the need for US preparedness.

 

23. It was also in 2008, that the study under review was commissioned. The Failed State 2030: Nigeria-a Case Study shows that the various trends pointing to Nigeria's possible failure could be used to develop strategies or war games to help the US avoid or test potential responses to the calamity of failed states. By design or coincidence, the U. S. military in May 2008, conducted a war games called Unified Quest 2008 to ascertain how its military might respond to a war in parts of Africa, including Nigeria. Among other scenarios, the war game envisioned the deployment of 20,000 US troops to maintain security in the Niger Delta oil fields within a dissolved anarchic Nigeria. The war game, however, ended without U.S. military intervention because one of the rival factions in the Nigerian army executed a successful coup and formed a government that sought stability in the country, thereby guaranteeing the free flow of natural resources from Africa to the global market which is one of the guiding principles of AFRICOM.[ii]

 

24. A joint report authored by the NIC and South Africa- based Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in 2010 reinforced the same sentiments expressed in the Failed State 2030 monograph. While noting the significant leadership potential that Nigeria holds in the stability and development of Africa, the report contended that internal conflict or collapse of a populous Nigeria would likely overwhelm international conflict management efforts, given the difficult challenges that smaller countries, such as Sudan or Somalia, have so far posed to the international community.

 

25. Finally, the 2012 annual report by the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) recommended that Nigeria should be designated as a "Country of Particular Concern" (CPC). The USCIRF claims to be "an independent, bipartisan U. S. Federal Government commission" with principal responsibilities to review the facts and circumstances of violations of religious freedom internationally and make policy recommendations to the President, the Secretary of State and Congress. However, its commissioners are appointed by the US President and the leadership of both political parties in the Senate and the House of Representatives. The commission premised it recommendation on the fact that over 14,000 Nigerians had been killed in religiously-related violence between Muslims and Christians since 1999. Significantly, the USCIRF also noted that "the government of Nigeria continues to fail to prevent and contain acts of religiously-related violence, prevent reprisal attacks, or bring those responsible for such violence to justice." Other countries recommended for CPC status in 2012 were Egypt, Iraq, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan and Vietnam, while countries on its watch-list include Afghanistan, Belarus, Cuba, India, Indonesia, Laos, Russia, Somalia and Venezuela. Nigeria which had been on USCIRF's watch-list since 2002, was first recommended for CPC status in 2009.[iii]

 

26. These military and security reports have been complemented by a number of recent books that have predicted the collapse of the Nigerian state, namely Karl Maier, This House Has Fallen (2002), Robert Calderis, The Trouble with Africa (2007), and Roy Cullen, The Poverty of Corrupt Nations (2008).[iv] Most of these books owe their apocalyptic trade mark to the lurid portrayal of state failure in Africa in Robert Kaplan's article in the Atlantic Monthly in 1994 which warned that a "coming anarchy" from Africa would engulf much of the post-Cold war world. That article became required reading in the Clinton White House that year.[v] James Campbell, the former US ambassador to Nigeria and the Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies at the US Council on Foreign Relations, capped these dire predictions with his Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink in 2010. Campbell's grand thesis is that whereas Nigeria had been resilient in surviving a civil war, the confluence of intensified ethnic and religious violence in the Middle Belt, the insurrection in the Delta, and the paralysis of the Presidency at the time of the 2011 elections would be the defining moments of Nigeria's state failure.[vi]

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF FAILED STATE 2030 NIGERIA—A CASE STUDY

 

27. The contexts of the perceived U. S. "obsession" with a failing Nigeria identified in the preceding section can be further enriched with a highlight of the main findings of the Failed State 2030 Nigeria—a Case Study. As noted earlier, the report is a 2008 study authored by four air force colonels at the Air University Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama USA.  The "failed-state" scenario painted in the study is one of four that comprised the Blue Horizons study of a resurgent Russia, a peer China, a successful jihadist insurgency against a friendly state in the Middle East, and a failed state in a vital area of US interest conducted by the university in 2008.

 

28. Using Nigeria as a case study for its fourth scenario, the report (published in February 2011 as Occasional Paper 167), describes how a failed state in 2030 may impact the United States and the global economy. It also identifies critical capabilities and technologies the US Air Force should possess to respond to a failed state, "especially one of vital interest to the US and at the cusp of a civil war."[vii]  Nigeria was chosen because of its vast oil wealth which could be up to 25 percent of US light, sweet crude oil imports by 2030. In addition, Nigeria's large population, strategic position in Africa, and the assumption that its failure would significantly affect the US and the global economy, were part of the rationale for the study.

 

29. The central question which the monograph sought to answer was, "Are there technologies and capabilities the US Air Force could invest in now to prepare itself to respond in 2030 to the challenges and surprises a failed state poses to the United States and the world?"[viii]  To address these questions, Chapter 2 of the book provides an unusually brief definition of "state failure" using omnibus indicators that would send sparks flying among serious scholars. The brief outline of the history of Nigeria through the study year 2008 presented in this chapter is probably the best one could expect from military engineers who had never studied nor engaged Nigeria, except through a crash course of ad hoc lectures and series of interviews of some Nigerian military and civilian personnel as part of the methodology for their study. Nonetheless, it provides a context for their understanding of the evolution of the Nigerian state that helped them identify key vectors that they contend could cause the Nigerian state to implode in 2030.

 

30. In Chapter 3 they argue that while Nigeria's rich social and cultural makeup offers hope for a successful future for Nigeria, deep fissures within its "extraordinarily complex demographic and cultural makeup could become the fault lines that shatter the nation." Similarly, Chapter 4, begins on a cautious note of hope for Nigeria's current and future political situation, but correctly reminds that this hope is bounded by the reality that institutional government corruption and a combination of religious and cultural factionalism is endemic and pervasive. If the poor quality of Nigeria's governance is left unchecked, these can ultimately corrode the social contract between the government and the people and bring about the failure of the Nigerian state, the book contends.

 

31. Chapter 5 takes on the complexities of Nigeria's "one commodity" petroleum economy. It notes that while the price of oil will likely continue to rise and fall and although Nigerian government budgets use a lower oil price as a basis for planning, "Nigeria's oligarchs" reap 80 percent of the oil profits. Three economic scenarios—The Nightmare Continues, The Dream Is Realized, and The Dream Is Derailed—are explored, with the authors noting that a failure by the government to rein in corruption could derail Nigeria's economy and bring about failure of the state. In chapter 6, the book addresses Nigeria's military capabilities and technology while examining the role of Nigeria's military in politics and in preserving this ethnically complex nation. It notes that Nigeria's military has had a relatively consistent constitutional role because it has overthrown five elected governments, even as the support it receives from the government and the people is inconsistent. A lack of support for the military or a highly fragmented Nigerian military in 2030 during a time of national crisis could also bring down Nigeria.

 

32. Chapter 7 is actually the "meat" of the publication (35 pages in all, compared to an average of 10 pages in other chapters) in that it is here that the authors develop a sequence of events connecting the Nigeria of today to one potential future outcome. It paints a picture of what "day-to-day" Nigeria may look like in 2030 and presents a plausible scenario for a systemic collapse of governance and Nigeria's failure under the weight of multiple cross-cutting social and cultural issues, infrastructure, the economy, the government, and the influence of outside elements. In their own words:

 

By 2030 the social contract between the weakened federal government and the Nigerian people is effectively broken. An attempt to restore confidence through a national election sweeps the electorally dominant Islamic political structure into power. Buoyed by its electoral success, the new government threatens to ruin family criminal enterprises and confiscate the wealth of the business oligarchs. Its ultimate end state is to rebrand Nigeria as an Islamic republic. The culmination of these negative trends and political actions sparks a violent reaction from the non-Islamic population, the criminal family enterprises, and the oligarchs. In this case, the state fails.[ix]

 

 

33. Although the authors claim that Nigeria is on the cusp of a civil war, they also acknowledge that Nigeria becoming a failed state is not a foregone conclusion. If Nigeria fails however, it would be akin to a piece of fine china dropped on a tile floor, it would simply shatter into potentially hundreds of pieces, a threat too great to ignore. The attendant humanitarian crisis unfolding in the wake of failure and the hard work and cost to repair the damage could take two generations to make Nigeria viable again. A recent study by Oxford University economist Paul Collier and his colleague Lisa Chauvet contends that the total cost of a single country falling into the "fragile state" category, for itself and its neighbours, may reach US$85 billion. This is a gargantuan sum equivalent to 70 per cent of worldwide official development assistance from international donors in 2009.[x] More alarming, according to the authors of Failed State 2030, is the threat that failure poses to the livelihood, security, and general way of life of a projected quarter billion Nigerians by 2030, the effect of which could quickly spread and cause a humanitarian disaster of previously unimagined proportions in the region.

 

34. What then would the US do, and what are some of the desired key capabilities and technologies the US Air Force could use to respond to this scenario in 2030? Chapter 8 attempts to answer these questions, even as the authors contend that the required set of capabilities would apply to any failed state on the brink of civil war. These capabilities are important to future peace operations, peacekeeping, peace enforcement, peacemaking, peace building and have applicability that range far beyond the scenario painted here. Peace enforcement operations in a failed-state scenario in 2030 will require capabilities to anticipate impending threats, understand the operating environment and capabilities of the belligerents, engage with the appropriate force, survive in a highly stressed environment with a small operational and support footprint, rapidly deploy response forces and supplies to the operating area, and quickly replenish materiel and people in order to sustain forces.

 

35. Failed State 2030 Nigeria—a Case Study concludes that despite its best efforts, Nigeria has a long-term struggle ahead to remain a viable state, much less a top-20 economy. While its vast sweet-crude-oil wealth potentially provides Nigeria with great power and influence, the government's history of rampant corruption and inability and unwillingness to invest in its human resources, industrial infrastructure and the people's welfare could doom it to failure. The US cannot ignore such a failure because Nigeria will likely account for over 25 percent of US oil imports by 2030, even as other large economies depend on an uninterrupted flow of oil from Nigeria.

 



[i] See Seyi Gesinde, Abiodun Awolaja and Laolu Afolabi, "US Didn't Predict Nigeria's Break Up by 2015 –Ambassador," Tribune, 2 February 2012; http://www.saturday.tribune.com.ng/index.php/news/35397-us-didnt-predict-nigerias-break-up-by-2015-ambassador; accessed 1 April 2012, among numerous newspaper headlines on this issue.

[ii] See Paul Ohia. US Army Prepares for Nigeria's Possible Break-Up. ThisDay, 17 August 2009; http://www.thisdayonline.com/nview.php?id=151826; accessed 17August 2009; and Jacob Kubeka. US Army Prepares for Nigeria's Possible Break-Up. National Accord (Abuja), 4 January 2012; http://www.nationalaccordnewspaper.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4266:us-army-prepares-for-nigerias-possible-break-up-&catid=35:national-news&Itemid=63; accessed 4 January 2012.

[iii] Tokunbo Adedoja, "Report Wants Nigeria Tagged Country of Particular Concern," ThisDay, 22 Mar 2012.

[iv] See Karl Maier. This House Has Fallen: Nigeria in Crisis. New York: Basic Books, 2002; Robert Calderis. The Trouble with Africa: Why Foreign Aid Isn't Working. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007; and Roy Cullen. The Poverty of Corrupt Nations. Toronto: Blue Butterfly Books, 2008.

[v] Kaplan, "The Coming Anarchy," op cit.

[vi] John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink. New York: Rowman & Littlefield, for Council on Foreign Relations, 2010, p. 131.

[vii] Failed State 2030, p vii.

[viii] Op cit., p. 4.

[ix] Op. cit., p. 65.

[x] Quoted in Stewart Patrick, Weak Links: Fragile States, Global Threats and International Security. New York: Oxford University Press, 2011, p. 55.




On Wed, Jul 31, 2019 at 10:21 AM Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju <toyin.adepoju@gmail.com> wrote:
Various ethnicities but mainly the North and the SW supported Buhari.

People had various reasons, some ethnic, some truly nationalistic. 

Can you direct me to where I can get info on this- ', American intelligence agencies predicted EVERYTHING that is currently happening--and that WILL HAPPEN-back in 2011, but Nigerians could care less.'

thanks

 Toyin  



On Wed, 31 Jul 2019 at 09:56, Okey Iheduru <okeyiheduru@gmail.com> wrote:
Too late, fellows. Prof. Oyebode and all others now shedding crocodile tears and doing last-minute "mea culpa" were warned but hatred and vain hope of an imminent ethnic harvest blinded them all. The PMB effect will be with Nigeria over the next 50 years, if the country survives its current race to the precipice. By the way, American intelligence agencies predicted EVERYTHING that is currently happening--and that WILL HAPPEN-back in 2011, but Nigerians could care less. #BringBackCluless?

On Tue, 30 Jul 2019, 11:52 pm Moses Ochonu, <meochonu@gmail.com> wrote:


.
"I voted for him in 2015; I took the trouble to join the queue and vote for him. I thought anything but Jonathan. Jonathan was clueless but now we got a worse person than Jonathan, so I didn't believe he deserved a second term. Some people taunted me for supporting him but I told them I was extremely sorry. ....
This man can't move Nigeria anywhere; the country is collapsing under him. It's the young people I feel sorry for"

—-Professor Akin Oyebode, emeritus professor of constitutional and international law, university of Lagos.



Sent from my iPhone

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Okey C. Iheduru

Just published "The African Corporation, 'Africapitalism' and Regional Integration in Africa" (September 2018). DOI: https://doi.org/10.4337/9781785362538.

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