USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fwd: Buhari Chooses Adebayo As Running Mate

 

 

Dear All:

While Alagba Adebayo's original analysis and prediction of a Buhari-Niyi Adebayo ticket

is now being seriously considered,  I am inclined to heed Joe Attueyi's caution that everything is still fluid,

--nothing is cast in stone.

 

Lady Joan's rumination about the GEJ camp breathing easier over the main opposition's floated

ticket is also noteworthy.

 

A Buhari-Niyi Adebayo ticket will no doubt be conceding major segments of the Nigerian electorate

to the GEJ-Sambo camp.

 

The SE would likely be wondering what they stand to gain from this ticket considering

how parochial Nigerians are. Unlike GEJ, Buhari has not offered to serve for only one term

--a scenario that might open up the presidency in 2015 to the SE.

 

SS Nigerians might also be asking what is in it for them. For instance, how much better

suited is a Buhari-NIyi Adebayo presidency towards solving the Niger-Delta crisis compared to the GEJ-Sambo

ticket?

 

Former governor Niyi Adebayo is undoubtedly a well qualified candidate. However,

if the ultimate aim of the ACN-CPC coalition is to defeat the GEJ-Sambo slate and win the presidency,

they would have to go back to the drawing board and build a bigger tent--one that can

accomodate more diverse interests and other parties. A coalition that is limited only to the ACN

and the CPC is unlikely to dislodge the PDP from power/

 

Notwithstanding that this issue is about party politics, I believe there is an urgent need to bring in other

parties under the ACN-CPC tent in a way that would allow for the consideration of other

running mates for Buhari.

 

As previously mentioned--Utomi, Okonjo-Iweala, Ngige and other candidates have the potential

of broadening the appeal of the ACN-CPC coalition beyond the SW, Edo state and the core NW.

 

The  spread in favour of GEJ-Sambo ticket might

just have increased by a few more percentage points from my prediction of 2 to 5% if the ACN-CPC

remains unchanged from the currently rumored Buhari-Niyi Adebayo.

 

Bye,

 

Ola

 

 

---- Original Message ----
From: Mallami Kayode <arolu.mallami@gmail.com>
To: NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tue, Dec 28, 2010 8:25 am
Subject: Re: [NaijaPolitics] Re: [NIgerianWorldForum] Buhari Chooses Adebayo As Running Mate

 

Alagba Adebayo,
Yes, I still remembered the day you mentioned Buhari/Adebayo Ticket very vividly. I believed all your wordings from A-Z that very day. Infact, I respect your political calculation. Yours is always brief but with lot of ingredients. I`ve said it several times on this list serve also that: if GEJ promised us a credible election in 2011, he must not contest on that election. He makes up his mind to contest the election and the victory is coming to the side of the opposition because of that grave error. When I read the news (Buhari/Adebayo Ticket), something reeled out inside me, and it suggested that we are heading to the right direction in Nigeria. Wallahi tallahi, Sai Buhari! Buhari/Adebayo mu keso!

On 28 December 2010 13:31, Joe Attueyi <topcrestt@yahoo.com> wrote:

 

Folks
It is not EVERY thing that the wine tapper sees from his vantage point that he broadcasts in the village square.

All I can say is that otunba Niyi is not Buhari's running mate, some issues are still fluid BUT there is nothing like a deadline to concentrate the mind and in MAXIMUM 2 weeks ( probably few days ) the opposition ticket will be known. We hope our leaders will do the right thing for Nigeria.

On a lighter note, I met Tripple A on Monday. Beautiful sister. Either she is too smart for her age or she looks too young for her age. Which ever, I can now understand why eRG and IBK drool over her. It was nice meeting you my sister.

Joe

--- In NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com, Dominic Ogbonna <summadom@...> wrote:
>
> "*To expect an alliance/merger between CPC and ACN to produce Professor Pat.

> Utomi, a non party member as VP candidate will be a tall order."* -Adebayo

> Adejuwon
>
> Why ... I thought what was planned was a MEGA-ALLIANCE ? Joe Attueyi, was
> Utomi unwilling to fold his camp into the Mega-alliance? Or did the
> Fulani-Yoruba Oligarchy simply decide to recycle the cake among themselves?
>
> Dominic
>

> On Mon, Dec 27, 2010 at 10:36 PM, Adebayo Adejuwon <adeadejuwon@...>wrote:

>
> >
> >
> > To expect an alliance/merger between CPC and ACN to produce Professor
> > Pat. Utomi, a non party member as VP candidate will be a tall order. Prof
> > Pat.Utomi will be my preferred choice if we were not discussing party
> > politics. But this is party politics.
> >
> > I wonder what must have happened to the rumour of a Buhari/Ngige combo!!
> >
> > Not to worry, Niyi Adebayo too is not an unkown quantity. I do not see what
> > qualifies Sambo as VP to GEJ that does not qualifies Niyi Adebayo more.
> >
> > Sambo was the immediate past Gov. of Kaduna state while Niyi Adebayo was a
> > former Gov. of Ekiti state under AD.
> >
> > It is hard to speculate on what the voting pattern will be based on the
> > candidacy of GEJ/Sambo and Buhari/Adebayo until we know who will run with
> > Atiku.
> >
> > What I do know is that Atiku will run either as a PDP candidate or on the
> > platform of another party and he will pick Igbo VP.
> >
> > ------------------------------

> > *From:* joan.Osa Oviawe <joanoviawe@...>
> > *To:* NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com

> > *Cc:* Naija Politics (Group) <NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com>
> > *Sent:* Mon, December 27, 2010 7:14:25 PM
> > *Subject:* Re: [NIgerianWorldForum] Buhari Chooses Adebayo As Running Mate
> >
> >
> >
> > This is an interesting development.
> >
> > Who is this running mate and what are his antecedents?
> >
> > I don't know, I am quite disappointed. Was expecting a Buhari/Utomi ticket.
> >
> > GEJ's chances of winning may have been strengthened by this move.
> >
> > jOo
> >

> > On Mon, Dec 27, 2010 at 7:06 PM, Dominic Ogbonna <summadom@...>wrote:
> >
> >>
> >>
> >> CPC, ACN alliance knocks out RibaduNews<http://www.vanguardngr.com/category/national-news/> Dec

> >> 28, 2010
> >>
> >> By Leke Adeseri, South West Regional Editor
> >> LAGOS—BARRING last minute changes, the much expected outcome of the
> >> alliance talks between the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, and Action
> >> Congress of Nigeria, ACN, will be known today.
> >>
> >> The most significant outcome of the friendship is that it has put paid to
> >> the presidential ambition of the former boss of Economic and Financial
> >> Crimes Commission, EFCC, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, under the ACN.
> >>
> >> This followed the final talks held in Lagos last night where the CPC
> >> leader, General Muhammadu Buhari, is likely to run as joint presidential
> >> candidate of the CPC and Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, on ACN's platform
> >> with former Ekiti State governor, Otunba Niyi Adebayo, as his running mate,
> >> according to feelers from top_level CPC/ACN alliance talks held at ACN
> >> leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu's house at Bourdillon Road, Ikoyi.
> >>
> >> The CPC team was led by Buhari himself whileTinubu led ACN's team.
> >>
> >> Joint presidential candidate
> >>
> >> Sources said the ACN leaders had already accepted Buhari as their joint
> >> presidential candidate. However, at last night's meeting, they demanded
> >> that, following the APP/AD alliance formula of 1999, the CPC leader should
> >> run on ACN's platform, since it is already too late to merge the two
> >> parties, as the ACN leaders initially preferred.
> >>
> >> The ACN's leaders' demand, sources said, was because CPC is little known
> >> in the West, where ACN is now dominant, and it would be easier for the ACN
> >> leaders if the joint candidate ran on their ticket. It was not clear whether
> >> the CPC leaders accepted the demand, which would make matters very difficult
> >> for them too, since CPC is just making an impact in the North and its
> >> supporters would be confused if asked to vote for ACN.
> >>
> >> Another issue said to have dominated last night's talks, was the issue of
> >> a running mate for Buhari. The ACN leaders' first preference was for Tinubu,
> >> who became the most powerful politician in the South West with ACN's
> >> snatching of several states from the PDP through the courts.
> >>
> >> However, the CPC delegation was quick to point out the political dangers
> >> of fielding a Muslim_Muslim ticket, especially in some parts of the country
> >> such as the North Central Zone.
> >>
> >> A flurry of political activities took place that tended towards reshaping
> >> the political landscape, particularly the outcome of the general elections
> >> expected to hold in April 2011.
> >>
> >> Some of those activities included the amalgamation of opposition elements,
> >> under the auspices of Patriotic Electoral Alliance of Nigeria, PEAN, in
> >> their efforts to wrest power from the ruling party, the Peoples Democratic
> >> Party, PDP.
> >>
> >> This was followed by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC's
> >> announcement of the shift and, perhaps, the final date for the conduct of
> >> the general election _ despite the pending debate at the National Assembly
> >> over the contentious Electoral Act.
> >>
> >> Though an internal worry in the PDP, the emergence of the consensus
> >> candidate of the northern aspirants _ an exercise initiated by the Northern
> >> Political Leaders Forum, NPLF, led by the former Finance Minister, Adamu
> >> Ciroma, which endorsed former Vice President Atiku Abubakar _ was also
> >> another exciting activity which heightened the political tempo during the
> >> period in reference.
> >>
> >> This is even more when the ambitions of heavy weights like former Military
> >> President Ibrahim Babangida; erstwhile National Security Adviser, Mohammed
> >> Gusau, and incumbent Governor of Kwara State who also doubles as Chairman of
> >> the Nigerian Governors Forum, Bukola Saraki, were sacrificed for Atiku.
> >>
> >> The implication of the development is that the coming elections would be a
> >> keen contest. PDP has within its ranks a lot of rivalries to contend with,
> >> particularly with the vexed issue of the zoning which has dangerously
> >> gravitated towards ethnic colouration of who flies the party's flag.
> >>
> >> Deployment of strategies
> >>
> >> However, the most worrisome is the potential of opposition parties to
> >> supplant PDP in the coming election, deploying whatever strategies; be it
> >> through alignment, merger, coalition, alliance, union or whatever
> >> terminology they choose.
> >>
> >> The tempo has indeed heightened in the last couple of weeks and given vent
> >> to the discourse on probable alliances against the PDP in a bid to wrestle
> >> presidential power from President Goodluck Jonathan.
> >>
> >> Of all the alliances, however, the one that appears to be the greatest
> >> threat to the PDP is the merger or alliance talk between the ACN and the
> >> Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, championed by two heavyweights,
> >> Senator Bola Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State and unarguably the
> >> current strongest man in Southwest politics; and General Muhammadu Buhari,
> >> former military president, who today holds the record of the only Nigerian
> >> who has consistently but unsuccessfully sought to rule Nigerian in the last
> >> three general elections.
> >>
> >> Though, it appears that the merger talks have witnessed many hitches,
> >> signals point to the possibility that both men are exploring other synergies
> >> to form a formidable force to confront their common foe.
> >>
> >> Spokesmen of both parties, Lai Mohammed, ACN; and Denis Aghanya, CPC,
> >> agreed that there were irreconcilables over merger arrangement, but noted
> >> that the chances that alliances would sail through was a possibility.
> >>
> >> The fact that ACN holds sway in the South West and are having serious
> >> impact in the South_South while CPC is the party to beat in the North, gave
> >> a ray of hope that there indeed was a possibility to wrestle power from PDP
> >> come 2011.
> >>
> >
> >
> >
> >
>

--

Mallami KAYODE

When you come in this world, you cried and everyone surrounding you laughed and happy. So, do something with your life, so that when you leave the world, you keep smiling and everyone surrounding you will cry and sad. - Arabic Proverb.

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