Friday, January 14, 2011

USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: {Revised} FRIDAY ESSAY: The (Almost) FInal Results of PDP Presidential Primary of January 13, 2011 at Eagle Square, Abuja, Nigeria

Chief Mobolaji ALUKO,

Thanks for such a clear-cut analysis of what's happened and where we
are likely to be going. Even from here in Stockholm, Sweden, as a
Kalabari Rivers man myself (by acculturation) it's only
congratulations and good luck wishes to Chief Goodluck Jonathan of
another Ijaw sub-tribe from Yenogoa .(As a born Yoruba man I'm
something of a "tribal-ist" but not a racist and so find the three
main candidates so exciting. Our man Muhammadu Buhari who is the best
known of the three is a man of past achievements and vision for the
future of Nigeria and then there's anti-corruption icon Ribadu
endorsed by what I see as essentially my Yoruba peoples' ACN (please
correct me if I'm wrong) Then there's Utomi for SDMP, Momodu for NCP,
"and Shekarau (maybe) for ANPP".

http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/articles/nvs/politicians-would-be-the-first-victims-of-sharia-if-properly-implemented-buhari.html

You say that, "Curiously, Anambra's total number of delegates within
the SE was rather sparse - 55 out of 446 - probably indicating a lack
of enthusiasm from that heart of the geo-political zone." Ah, that's
politics for you! Curiously enough I was also puzzled by the Anamabra
Legislators' Happy New Year promissory note to Attiku – "scratch my
back & I scratch your back, back for you" - a reciprocal promissory
assurance in reply to Attiku being "the one most favourable to the
election of an Igbo man or woman as President in 2015." Question is
(it's a question of honour and keeping ones promise) did all 24 of
them actually endorse him in the primaries?

http://allafrica.com/stories/201012310464.html

"April is the cruellest month"…is the presidential election going to
be a cliff hanger?

I had had my reservations about Chief Jonathan until his handling of
the spate of terrorist bombings – that was presidential calibre
decision–making. Chief Jonathan showing some muscle in his arm:

http://www.google.com/search?source=ig&hl=en&rlz=&=&q=Goodluck+Jonathan+anti-+terrorism+measures

Nigeria as by far the most powerful country in the region is always
called upon to play a leadership role. In my opinion (supported by
some background information) – although a Nigerian contribution to
military intervention in the Ivory Coast could please the EU & the
Americans, who back Gbagbo, and could further endear Chief Goodluck
Jonathan to them it's certainly not the time for Chief Jonathan to
commit Nigerian troops (who constitute the essence of ECOWAS military
potential) to fighting in an offensive or even a "peace-keeping"
capacity in the political quagmire called the Ivory Coast.

As Professor Harrow put it,

"i do not know, and you do not know, how the ivoirian military would
respond to an ecowas invasion. maybe they would see reason and throw
out
the bum; maybe they would resist, and maybe a million ghanaians would
tremble. you do not know. i do not know."

We all know how quickly peace-keeping in that volatile internal
situation could degenerate into full blown civil war at any time – and
I've asked before, with the Ivory Coast surrounded by Ghana,
Liberia, Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso, WHO will be fighting WHO?
Ghana who share a border with the Ivory Coast have the same people on
the other side of the border, now speaking French as a second language
- a very porous border with the Ivory Coast (the border has been seen
as a colonial formality and mostly a blessing and not a curse to the
old cocoa farmers smugglers union in Ghana, sure ) - and the people of
Ghana know that even after some military interference there, in the
future they will have to live next door as neighbours.(During the
Sierra Leone civil war I met Dr. Tony Aidoo, the Ghanaian minister of
defence (here in Stockholm, informally - at a party) and discussed
some of the differences between the Ghanaian and Nigerian peacekeepers
in Sierra Leone - another former British colony ….there are
differences….and even preferences

The problem is that should Nigeria the leader (military, political
etc) of ECOWAS not play the role requested of them in the Ivory Coast,
then Nigeria could be accused of refusing the call to duty, especially
by the "at all costs" war-mongers among us (who would not volunteer to
some active military duty there themselves – too great a personal
risk) but would be furious nonetheless

Any way back to the elections: the Niger Delta is potentially the hub
of economic crisis and division or salvation and here President
Jonathan can play a very decisive national role as president of not
only the Delta, but also of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, given the
mandate to do sö.

Come April, may the best man for the people of Nigeria, win – and so
say all of us.


On Jan 14, 4:30 pm, Mobolaji ALUKO <aluk...@gmail.com> wrote:
>    Revised.......
>
> ____________________________________________________________________________________________
>
> *FRIDAY ESSAY: The (Almost) FInal Results of PDP Presidential Primaries of
> January 13, 2011 at Eagle Square, Abuja, Nigeria*
> **
> *by*
> **
> *Mobolaji E. Aluko, PhD*
> *aluk...@gmail.com* <aluk...@gmail.com>
> **
> **
> *January 14, 2011*
>
> ____________________________________________________________________________________________
>
> Dear All:
>
> Below is the (almost) final results of the PDP presidential primary of last
> night/this morning.  Now added to the state delegates count are the
> ex-officio non-delegates counts, which is the only way in which the final
> votes announced by Chief Electoral Officer Prof. Tunde Adeniran (Jonathan
> 2736, Atiiku 805, Jibril 1) could have been arrived at.
>
> If there are further corrections, they will be made by-and-by.
>
> Moving on.....
>
> The results below show that Jonathan won in every geo-political zone, even
> in the NW where the contest was closest (Jonathan 422, Atiku 365), and
> certainly in Atiku's own state (Adamawa: Jonathan 76, Atiku 31) and
>  geo-zone (NE: Jonathan 301, Atiku 155).  The greatest separation was in
> Jonathan's home SS geo-political zone - Jonathan 615, Atiku 9. - where
> however the two immediate neighbors of Bayelsa state (Delta, Rivers) gave
> the 9 votes to Atiku.  The highest single state vote was Yar'Adua's Katsina
> (147 votes) - a nod to Jonathan's claim to continuation of their joint
> mandate - but the greatest separation between the two top contestants was in
> Akwa Ibom (Jonathan 141 to Atiku's 0), once again indicating Governor
> Akpabio's dodgy "enforcer" reputation.   Curiously, Anambra's total number
> of delegates within the SE was rather sparse - 55 out of 446 - probably
> indicating a lack of enthusiasm from that heart of the geo-political zone.
>
> And by some quirky  - or divine -  means,  we seem to know exactly how two
> people voted: Jibril in Kwara State for Jibril,  and Omisore for Atiku in
> Osun State!
>
> Kudos to Jonathan!  The victory is convincing and emphatic enough (31 states
> + FCT to Jonathan with 77.2% of the valid votes, 5 states to Atiku with
> 32.8% of the valid votes), that no matter how it arose - through persuasion,
> zoning or anti-zoning sentiment, bribery, intimidation and/or rigging - any
> dissent or dissension by the opposition, personal or group,  within the PDP
> should be measured, tempered.
>
> Now with that decided, and with Buhari as presidential candiate for CPC,
> Utomi for SDMP, Momodu for NCP,  Ribadu (already unanimously adopted within
> the past hour by ACN) and Shekarau (maybe) for ANPP - did I leave out
> anybody, or am I being unnecessarily presumptious about some of the names? -
> let the fireworks and incadescence towards April 2011 begin!
>
> And there you have it.
>
> Bolaji Aluko
> Public Commentator
>
> ___________________________________________________________________________________________
>
> *PDP Presidential Primary Results – January 13, 2011, Eagle Square, Abuja,
> Nigeria*
>
> *S/N *
>
> *Geo-*
>
> *Zone*
>
> * State *
>
> *Jonathan*
>
> *Atiku*
>
> *Jibril*
>
> *Total*
>
> *Winner*
>
> *Comment*
>
> * *
>
> * *
>
> * *
>
> * *
>
> * *
>
> * *
>
> * *
>
> * *
>
> * *
>
> *1*
>
> SW
>
> Ekiti
>
> 76
>
> 1
>
> 0
>
> 77
>
> Jonathan
>
> *2*
>
> Lagos
>
> 52
>
> 3
>
> 0
>
> 55
>
> Jonathan
>
> *3*
>
> Ogun
>
> 80
>
> 3
>
> 0
>
> 83
>
> Jonathan
>
> *4*
>
> Ondo
>
> 69
>
> 6
>
> 0
>
> 75
>
> Jonathan
>
> *5*
>
> Osun
>
> 99
>
> 1
>
> 0
>
> 100
>
> Jonathan
>
> Omisore for Atiku?
>
> *6*
>
> Oyo
>
> 107
>
> 10
>
> 0
>
> 117
>
> Jonathan
>
> * *
>
> *Total SW*
>
> *483***
>
> *24***
>
> *0***
>
> *507***
>
> *Jonathan*
>
> * *
>
> *7*
>
> SE
>
> Abia
>
> 80
>
> 1
>
> 0
>
> 81
>
> Jonathan
>
> *8*
>
> Anambra
>
> 47
>
> 8
>
> 0
>
> 55
>
> Jonathan
>
> *9*
>
> Enugu
>
> 89
>
> 9
>
> 0
>
> 98
>
> Jonathan
>
> *10*
>
> Ebonyi
>
> 82
>
> 2
>
> 0
>
> 84
>
> Jonathan
>
> *11*
>
> Imo
>
> 125
>
> 3
>
> 0
>
> 128
>
> Jonathan
>
> * *
>
> *Total SE*
>
> *423***
>
> *23***
>
> *0***
>
> *446***
>
> *Jonathan*
>
> * *
>
> *12*
>
> SS
>
> Akwa-Ibom
>
> 141
>
> 0
>
> 0
>
> 141
>
> Jonathan
>
> *13*
>
> Bayelsa
>
> 67
>
> 0
>
> 0
>
> 67
>
> Jonathan
>
> *14*
>
> Cross-Rivers
>
> 105
>
> 0
>
> 0
>
> 105
>
> Jonathan
>
> *15*
>
> Delta
>
> 114
>
> 7
>
> 0
>
> 121
>
> Jonathan
>
> *16*
>
> Edo
>
> 60
>
> 0
>
> 0
>
> 60
>
> Jonathan
>
> *17*
>
> Rivers
>
> 128
>
> 2
>
> 0
>
> 130
>
> Jonathan
>
> * *
>
> *Total SS*
>
> *615***
>
> *9***
>
> *0***
>
> *624***
>
> *Jonathan*
>
> * *
>
> *18*
>
> NW
>
> Jigawa
>
> 100
>
> 17
>
> 0
>
> 117
>
> Jonathan
>
> *19*
>
> Kaduna
>
> 82
>
> 41
>
> 0
>
> 123
>
> Jonathan
>
> *20*
>
> Kano
>
> 21
>
> 98
>
> 0
>
> 119
>
> Atiku
>
> *21*
>
> Katsina
>
> 147
>
> 11
>
> 0
>
> 158
>
> Jonathan
>
> *22*
>
> Kebbi
>
> 33
>
> 44
>
> 0
>
> 77
>
> Atiku
>
> *23*
>
> Sokoto
>
> 32
>
> 84
>
> 0
>
> 116
>
> Atiku
>
> *24*
>
> Zamfara
>
> 7
>
> 70
>
> 0
>
> 77
>
> Atiku
>
> * *
>
> *Total NW*
>
> *422***
>
> *365***
>
> *0***
>
> *787***
>
> *Jonathan*
>
> * *
>
> *25*
>
> NE
>
> Adamawa
>
> 76
>
> 31
>
> 0
>
> 107
>
> Jonathan
>
> *26*
>
> Bauchi
>
> 46
>
> 44
>
> 0
>
> 90
>
> Jonathan
>
> *27*
>
> Borno
>
> 33
>
> 26
>
> 0
>
> 59
>
> Jonathan
>
> *28*
>
> Gombe
>
> 55
>
> 18
>
> 0
>
> 73
>
> Jonathan
>
> *29*
>
> Taraba
>
> 62
>
> 16
>
> 0
>
> 78
>
> Jonathan
>
> *30*
>
> Yobe
>
> 29
>
> 20
>
> 0
>
> 49
>
> Jonathan
>
> * *
>
> *Total NE*
>
> *301***
>
> *155***
>
> *0***
>
> *456***
>
> *Jonathan*
>
> * *
>
> *31*
>
> NC
>
> Benue
>
> 72
>
> 15
>
> 0
>
> 87
>
> Jonathan
>
> *32*
>
> Kogi
>
> 84
>
> 24
>
> 0
>
> 108
>
> Jonathan
>
> *33*
>
> Kwara
>
> 61
>
> 26
>
> 1
>
> 88
>
> Jonathan
>
> Jibril for Jibril?
>
> *34*
>
> Nassarawa
>
> 53
>
> 8
>
> 0
>
> 61
>
> Jonathan
>
> *35*
>
> Niger
>
> 16
>
> 94
>
> 0
>
> 110
>
> Atiku
>
> *36*
>
> Plateau
>
> 70
>
> 5
>
> 0
>
> 75
>
> Jonathan
>
> * *
>
> *Total NC*
>
> *356***
>
> *172***
>
> *1***
>
> *529***
>
> *Jonathan*
>
> * *
>
> *37*
>
> FCT
>
> FCT (Abuja)
>
> 24
>
> 3
>
> 0
>
> 27
>
> Jonathan
>
> * *
>
> * *
>
> * *
>
> *Total State Delegates*
>
> *2624***
>
> *751***
>
> *1***
>
> *3376***
>
> *Jonathan – *
>
> *32 states*
>
> * *
>
> *Atiku – *
>
> *5 states*
>
> * *
>
> * *
>
> * *
>
> *Non-state (ex-officio) Delegates*
>
> *112*
>
> *54*
>
> *0*
>
> *166***
>
> * *
>
> * *
>
> * *
>
> * *
>
> *Announced*
>
> *2736*
>
> *805*
>
> *1*
>
> *3542***
>
> *61 Voided*
>
> *3603 Votes Cast?*
>
> * *
>
> *Needed to win*
>
> *1802*
>
> *1802*
>
> *1802*
>
>  ________________________________________________________________________________

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