General Muhammadu Buhari seeks to contest for Nigeria's presidency on the platform of the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC. Can he win this time around?
Amongst top members of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, General Muhammadu Buhari is both feared and respected. He is a man whose guts they do not like. They know that he is the man who poses a genuine challenge to the party's dream of forming government come May 2011. While many PDP members like to poke fun at Buhari, describing him as serial contestant and perennial litigant, they have come to see him as the presidential aspirant to take seriously.
Since his days as a military head of state, he has built a reputation of strictness. Mai Gaskiya, the honest one, as his admirers like to call him, is not likely to step down for anyone. He sees himself as the best man to lead Nigeria at this time and solve its numerous problems.
In Nigeria, especially in the north, many feel this way too. And the Daura-born General's popularity has been soaring since he left the All Nigerian Peoples Party, ANPP, to form the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC. Is he Nigeria's next president?
According to the Voice of America, Buhari is the most acceptable presidential candidate from the north. The VOA online survey showed Buhari as the strongest candidate, with 65 per cent, followed by the former boss of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, Malam Nuhu Ribadu, who came a distant second with 6 per cent. Former military president, General Ibrahim Babangida, came third with just 4 per cent.
Another survey conducted by the Abuja-based Leadership newspaper shows Buhari's party, against expectations, as gaining acceptability especially among the voting masses in most states of the north. According to the survey, states like Bauchi and Katsina, where the party is fully on ground, "aspirants who eventually get the party's ticket are seen as governors-in-waiting or legislators-elect. In states like Borno and Yobe, both controlled by the All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP, the fear of the CPC among the ruling elite is palpable". It noted that in Borno State, there has been an exodus of the ANPP faithful to the CPC, making the new party very strong in the state.
But what has been working for Buhari? Leadership identifies his good public service record, integrity, grassroots support and mass followership. The paper, however, warns that "Buhari's poor financial base, poor human rights record and the weak structure of the CPC might all work against him in the 2011 presidential poll. However, the National Chairman of the CPC, Senator Rufai Harga, is confident that the Daura-born retired general will become Nigeria's next president. He described the CPC as the party of the masses, formed with the goal of bringing back ideology-based politics.
To say Buhari is hugely popular in northern Nigeria is to say the obvious. On 3 July 2010 when he went to plant the state chapter of the CPC, Buhari literally shut down the city of Kano. "This shows that CPC is the party to beat", remarked Alhaji Buba Galadima, Director-General of the Buhari Organisation. Similar scenes were recorded in states like Katsina, Bauchi, Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi and Jigawa states, where the CPC chapters have been launched.
Buhari's party has been boosted by the defection to it of many heavyweight politicians from the north. These include former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Alhaji Aminu Bello Masari; Dr. Sayyadi Abba Ruma, former Minister of Agriculture and Water Resources and Alhaji Farouk Aliyu Adamu.
But Buhari was not short of grassroots support in 2003 and 2007, yet he was defeated on both occasions. Buhari can, however, argue that he was a victim of rigging on both occasions.
Dr. Adamu Usman, a legal practitioner told TheNEWS in Kaduna last week that the issue of credibility of the 2011 elections should be of concern to every Nigerian. He stressed that if the election were free and fair, Buhari stands a very good chance of winning. "I won't agree that he contested twice and lost. He contested twice and was rigged out. In 2003 and 2007, there was no real evidence that would lead us to conclude that someone won the elections," he said.
In Kaduna, Buhari is very popular among the masses, especially commercial motorcycle riders, who accused northern elites of working against Buhari all the time. Usman agreed that the northern elites are not comfortable with Buhari. "It is natural for the elite not to like Buhari. This is because, they are largely part of the problem that Buhari is coming to solve. The elite you know are the beneficiaries of the present corrupt system and so would not like to have a credible, sincere personality like Buhari to clinch power at that level. We believe at this time that Buhari is the leader that Nigerians want. So the masses must rise up this time and ensure that they are not cheated", he said.
Alhaji Abdullahi Kawo, one of Buhari's ardent supporters and CPC exco member in Kaduna North Local government, Nigeria needs a Buhari at this time to emancipate them from bad leadership. He expressed the belief that Buhari will restore sanity to Nigeria polity and expressed his readiness to die for Buhari. "Buhari's greatest enemies are his brothers from the north. They are greedy and corrupt", Kawo said.
Buhari has always wanted to serve. Recently in Kano he declared: "The need to change the face of Nigeria's politics and ensure service to the people and move the country forward are the underlining factors behind my presidential ambition. Ordinarily, I would have wished to remain an ordinary member of the party, but the dangers confronting the nation have denied my conscience the luxury of introversion. I can no longer sit back and watch poverty, disease, insecurity and illiteracy parade the homes of my countrymen. My contribution towards the desired quality leadership in the country, I reasoned, will best be channeled through one of the registered political parties," he stated.
He joined the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, floated by his loyalists in the Buhari Campaign Organisation, BCO, late in 2009 as an alternative to ANPP. Immediately after the 2007 presidential election, the ANPP leadership gave hints that it was no longer favourably disposed to the Buhari, who has now been unanimously adopted as the CPC presidential candidate. According to a source in the CPC leadership, "nobody within our great party can muster the courage to face Mai Gaskiya (Buhari) in the presidential primaries. As a matter of consensus, we have adopted him as our sole presidential candidate. He is the leader of our great party and we are comfortable with him. Anybody he anoints as candidate in any elective position would be automatically accepted by the party leadership. This, however, does not mean that there will never be primaries where the candidates are many. But you know that the General commands respect among the masses. So, if he anoints anyone, the masses will go for that person," the source added.
Aminu Abdullahi, a Kano petty trader who pasted Buhari's posters all over his kiosk at the Abubakar Rimi Market, vowed to give his all to Buhari's presidential bid. For Aminu, Buhari is an 'idol.' "Sai Buhari," he sang, noting that, "since I was born, I have never seen a leader who has the interest of the down-trodden at heart more than General Buhari. He is our next president. We must vote out corrupt leaders. Buhari is our next president, Insha Allah."
But despite his popularity among the Talakawa (common men) in many states in the north, the Buhari phenomenon has come under intense scrutiny, particularly, his intention to become the president of Nigeria.
Political Adviser to former President Shehu Shagari in the Second Republic, Alhaji Tanko Yakasai, recounted events that brought Buhari into the public domain as a military head of state and a politician. "In the Second Republic, there was a massive campaign against the government of President Shehu Shagari. People had viewed the government as one which mismanaged the economy—but this was erroneous. At a time in that administration, Nigeria was producing 1.1 million barrels of crude oil per day and a barrel was sold $40. A year later, because of crisis in Kuwait, the Middle East, the price of crude oil moved up to $44 per barrel and production went up to 21 million barrels per day," he explained.
He added that there was a lot of money and civil servants demanded salary increases. The Shagari government, he said, adopted N70 as minimum wage, which was the proposal of the workers then. Even at a time, some state governments, like that of Abubakar Rimi in Kano were paying higher than N70 during that oil boom.
"But in the middle of Shagari's government, there was oil glut, the production of crude oil came down from 2.1 million to 900,000 barrels per day. The price of oil at the international market came down from $44 to as low as $11 per barrel. As a result, some of the gigantic projects embarked upon by the Federal Government dropped because of lack of funds.
According to Yakassai, the opposition cashed in on the situation to launch assail the administration, accusing it of mismanaging resources. This worked, as the Shagari government became unpopular to the public, which complained that juicy promises made by the government were no longer implemented. "So, out of dishonesty, the opposition seized this opportunity to make mischievous alteration which gave birth to military incursion which General Buhari emerged as head of state… When he (Buhari) came in, he took some measures: he detained political office holders for two years without trial. The ordinary people at that time were happy because they were made to believe that those politicians detained by Buhari were corrupt, and thus, were the problem with the country at that time," Yakassai added.
But Buhari, Yakassai admitted, took other measures to ensure discipline. He introduced War Against Discipline, WAI, instilled fear in the people and commanded absolute respect and reverence among Nigerians at that time. "In a nutshell, I want to say that people who are supporting Buhari now are expecting him to arrest and detain corrupt politicians when he finds his way to Aso Rock," Yakassai stated.
Speaking on why Buhari commands a large followership among Nigerian muslims during the 2003 presidential elections, Yakassai said: "Unfortunately, at the time when Buhari came out to contest the presidential election, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo was the president. Among the northerners, Obasanjo was very unpopular because the North viewed him as a betrayer. They voted him into office and he betrayed them. Coincidentally, Buhari made a pronouncement during the war between the US and Iraq. Saddam Hussein was a muslim and muslims in this part of the country had sympathy for him. Obasanjo never made any comment. So, they saw Obasanjo as a pro-West. The statement he (Buhari) made tended to show that he was a religious bigot.
"All these put together, the average muslim from the North viewed the 2003 presidential election between Obasanjo and Buhari as a contest between the muslim and the christian or between the South and the North," the former adviser said.
Yakassai, who has been campaigning for a president of northern extraction, further viewed Buhari as a leader who commands followership among the downtrodden in the north. "Politically, I can compare him with the late Malam Aminu Kano, though in a different way. While Aminu Kano was popular among the talakawa because he championed their cause and liberated them from political bondage, Buhari is a leader of the masses who can stand resolutely to rough-handle the well-to-do to the admiration of the talakawa who have felt betrayed and abandoned," he reasoned. Yakasai further dissected Buhari's popularity, saying it is limited to a sizeable area in the North-West, North-East and a few places in the North-Central. "Come to think of it, his former party, ANPP, did not win even a councillorship election in any ward in the South," he said.
On whether Buhari is capable of winning the presidential election in 2011, Yakasai answered in the negative. "He will only reduce the chances of another northern candidate. He will reduce the votes of another northern candidate. I don't see Buhari winning the presidential election. His party may win election in two or three states," he concluded.
But the opinion of Alhaji Buba Galadima, a member of the CPC Board of Trustees, BOT, is in sharp contrast with Tanko's views. According to Buba, Buhari became popular because the masses have been under oppression and deprivation by a few privileged individuals and their families. "They (masses) saw in Buhari somebody who can salvage them from this bondage.They believe he can face this clique of people on behalf of the downtrodden. They have not seen or witnessed him amass wealth or live above his income and has never allowed his close family to partake in government or in any office that he held sway before. He has variously held public positions that every Nigerian or any Nigerian will hope to hold without abuse of such office. And his antecedents in public office showed he faced these cabal of corrupt leaders squarely. To my mind, I believe these are part of the reasons the masses of this country adore and respect Buhari. He is a man committed to service to humanity," Galadima said.
Buba, a National Youth Leader of the defunct National Party of Nigeria, NPN, and co-founder of the All Peoples Party, APP, fumed when asked about Buhari's perceived religious bigotry. "Anybody who called Buhari a religious bigot is stupid. Anybody who said Buhari gained popularity among muslims because of the purported statement he made in favour of Iraq during the USA/Iraq war is out of his mind. I challenge that person to come up with the tape recorder or video coverage where he made such a statement. Buhari himself has denied this allegation over and over again but you journalists, sometimes, are mischievous. They said he spoke in Hausa. Let that person come up with that quotation," he challenged.
Buhari, he said, has been a governor in the North-East, now comprising six states of the federation; a commander in various formations of the military; Director of Supply and Transport, Adjutant-General; Quarter-Master General of the Army; GOC Commanding, Personnel Commander of Nigeria Troops for 30 months during the civil war. He was also platoon Commander during the UN Operation in the Congo in the '60s. "All these troops had both muslim and christians. He was Minister of Petroleum Resources. When he was minister, he was the only muslim in the ministry. Even the gateman was a christian. Buhari worked in harmony with them. Buhari is not a religious bigot and he will never be one," Buba maintained.
Chairman of the CPC in Kano State, Haruna Danzago, claimed that Buhari's popularity is spreading even across the Niger. He said the masses love him because he is out to fight for them. According to him, "Alhaji Muhammadu Buhari is a democrat to the core. He is upright and incorruptible. He is a dedicated muslim and a true nationalist who respects the religion of other people. He is someone who cannot impose his own will or opinion on another person. Those who are afraid of him are corrupt politicians who fear that he will make them face the law. Insha Allah, Alhaji Muhammadu Buhari will make it to Aso Rock come 2011 and the masses are all out to support him."
For Alhaji Abdulkarim Daiyabu, National President, Movement for Justice in Nigeria, MOJIN, Buhari's popularity stemmed out of his philosophy of social justice and the quest to achieve an egalitarian society. "I don't think that his being popular has got anything to do with his religion. People do not want to see somebody who is not corrupt. It is very unfortunate that those who toppled him during the military era have seen him as a threat to not only what they looted, but their lives," he said.
Daiyabu is, however, worried that Buhari's detractors have planted their surrogates around him. ''Unfortunately for Nigeria and Nigerians, the man Buhari has not come to see things the way they are. He has trusted the surrogates planted by his enemies and they are pulling him down. His major headache is the intellectual rascals. We only pray that his eyes would be open before it is too late," he added.
Many christians in northern Nigeria and in the south are suspicious of Buhari. Solomon Duniya, christian residing in Kaduna, acknowledged that Buhari is a credible and reliable leader without blemish. But he vowed that christians in the state will not vote for him because they see him as a "muslim leader."
Unfortunately, while General Buhari has been busy planting branches of CPC across the North, he has done little so far to make the party popular in the southern part of the country. In an obvious move to dispute the popular view that he is an Islamic fundamentalist, Buhari recently embarked on trips to prominent religious leaders in the southern part of the country during which he visited the Primate of Methodist Church Nigeria, Dr. Sunday Makinde, in Lagos.
Buhari, many reason, could be the biggest beneficiary of the zoning impasse rocking the PDP. An aide of President Goodluck Jonathan stressed that it is not IBB or Atiku that they dread, but Buhari because he commends tremendous followers in northern Nigeria.
"I must admit that in a free and fair election Buhari is the man to beat in the north. He is extremely popular with the masses, who trust him for his integrity, honesty and incorruptible nature. Many of the governors are not even popular with the masses. So we are taking Buhari seriously," he said.
But a political analyst based in Lagos who also spoke on the rising popularity of Buhari said he lost his best chance to rule Nigeria when talks between his party, CPC and the Action Congress of Nigeria failed. "The parties lost a huge opportunity to work genuinely together to unseat the PDP. Buhari would have become very formidable, unstoppable. But at the end of the day their talks broke down and both parties are weaker for it," he analysed.
Former military president, Ibrahim Babangida may turn out to be the spoiler for Buhari because the North is believed to be the forte of both aspirants. It is believed that should he fail to get the PDP ticket, Babangida will defect to All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP, Buhari's former party. The prospect of the two rivals going head to head is exciting considering that it was Babangida that toppled Buhari's military regime in 1985. Storming Abuja with 7,300 campaigners last Wednesday, most of them believed to have been hired, Babangida formally declared his presidential ambition at the Eagle Square.
Though 25 out of the 28 PDP governors and most national officers of the party were absent, prominent in the crowd were former Senate president Ken Nnamani; former speaker of the House of Representatives, Ghaali Naaba; Senator Nuhu Aliyu, Chief Alex Akinyele, former governor of Rivers State, Peter Odili, former governor of Niger State, Abdulkhadir Kure; former governor of Nassarawa State, Alhaji Abdullahi Adamu and Senator Jubril Aminu. Also, three serving governors were at the event. They are Dr. Aliyu Babangida (Niger), Alhaji Mamudu Shinkafi, his son-in-law (Zamfara) and Alhaji Murtala Nyako (Adamawa). A strong delegation from Bayelsa State, purportedly sponsored by Governor Timipre Sylva, who is believed to oppose President Goodluck Jonathan's presidential bid but pretends to support it out of fear of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, was present.
Babangida, in his declaration speech, eulogised his eight-year regime, claiming he laid the foundation for the nation's present democratic experience. Though he admitted that many suffered as a result of the social engineering executed by his regime, he said it was no different from the experiences in countries where such efforts were carried out.
The picture of the presidential contest will get clearer in the next few weeks when President Jonathan and former EFCC chairman, Nuhu Ribadu formally throw their hats into the ring. Ribadu is expected to contest on the platform of the ACN. What is clear now is that unlike in past political dispensations when the northern votes were almost always unidirectional, the northern bloc is divided for the 2011 presidential election. How this will favour or mar Buhari's chances of emerging president will soon be seen.
– Babajide Kolade-Otitoju, additional reports Oluokun Ayorinde/Abuja, Maduabuchi Mmeribeh/Kano, Femi Adi/Kaduna and Ben Adaji/Jalingo
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