USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: NIDOCanada | Percentage of Registered Voters so far: Beyond Tribalism and Distribution

To contribute to the last analysis which I consider excellent:

1) The NW and SW votes are heavily concentrated in Kano and Lagos
respectively, and these two States have shown sufficient
cosmopolitanism and  independence in their voting behaviour to suggest
they can go any way and any where with proportional progressiveness:
they are less responsive to sectional politics.

2) From the outcome of the last primaries across all parties even in
Sarakistan it is now evident that no appeal to sectional or tribal
sentiments or ideals can form a national winning coalition in any
national election. So, if any is elated or saddened by the regional
distribution of registered voters think again. In any case Nigeria
does not need any would-be national politician who only thinks within
her/his tribe in aiming to project herself/himself onto the national
stage.

3) It is disheartening to still read comments by some otherwise
enlightened  persons that the solution to this distribution is in
going "home" for elections. Where is home? Where should people
register to vote? Should it not be where live and pursue livelihood?
Should it not be where they drive through bad roads and stay without
portable water, see their children in schools without teachers and
seats- conditions they wished were better? Of what is it to this
country or any voter if people leave for their "homes" to vote for
people they never knew at all, in places they only visit in
census/election season and where they are not known or understood by
anyone? What information on candidates' character or ability would
they have to vote for the right candidates in their "homes"?

On Sun, Feb 20, 2011 at 6:12 PM, ProudNigerians.Org <SpeakOut@proudnigerians.org> wrote:

 

2011: THE IGBO HAVE OPPORTUNITY Written by BENJAMIN OBIAJULU ADUBA Friday, 11 February 2011 21:14 http://elombah.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5281:2011-the-igbo-have-opportunity&catid=47:politics&Itemid=65   In his today's opinion piece, Mr. Daniel Elombah wrote: "…Ndigbo Nwere Problem!!!..." (Translation: the Igbo have problem) Mr. Elombah's dire prediction was based on the publication of the registered voters by zone by our Independent National Election Commission which was published as follows: North-West Nigeria 18 Million South West Nigeria 15 Million North East Nigeria 8 Million North Central 8 Million South South Nigeria 8 Million South East Nigeria 7 Million Total 64 million On the surface it would look as if Igbo have problem especially when taken from the point of view of Idowu Bobo All road the presidency of Nigeria runs through Northwest and Southwest, 50% of the voters are from these two regions of the country. In other words 2 zones make up 50% of registered voters. If you convincingly win both you will just be scrambling to win 25% from a few more states and you are in. Below is a one minute analysis of the registration results in tabular form ZONE POPULATION % OF POP - REGISTERED zone % % OF POP SS 21,014,655 - 15.0% - 8,000,000 - 38.1% - 12.5% SE- 16,381,729-11.7%- 7,000,000-42.7%- 10.9% SW- 27,581,992-19.7%- 15,000,000-54.4%- 23.4% ZN TOT 64,978,376 - 46.4% - 30,000,000 - 46.2% - 46.9% NW- 29,460,613-21.0%- 18,000,000-61.1% - 28.1% NE- 22,999,885-16.4%- 8,000,000-34.8% - 12.5% NC- 22,564,668-16.1%- 8,000,000-35.5% - 12.5% ZN TOT- 75,025,166-53.6%- 34,000,000-45.3% - 53.1% 36 STATES- 140,003,542-100.0%- 64,000,000 - 45.7% - 100.0% And compare this with the level of education in the zones ZONE- POPULATION- COLLEGE ENROLLMENT-PER CENT - % OF TOTAL - % of Population SS- 21,014,655- 140,000-0.7%-24.9% - 15% SE- 16,381,729- 190,000-1.2% - 33.8% - 12% SW- 27,581,992- 116,000-0.4% - 20.6% - 20% ZN TOT- 64,978,376- 446,000-0.7% - 79.4% - 46% NW- 29,460,613- 30,000-0.1% - 5.3% - 21% NE- 22,999,885- 21,000-0.1%-3.7% - 16% NC - 22,564,668 - 65,000 - 0.3% - 11.6% - 16% ZN TOT- 75,025,166- 116,000-0.2% - 20.6% - 54% 36 STATES- 140,003,542- 562,000-0.4% - 100.0% - 100% Several things stand out from this analysis: NW (21%) of the population has 28% of registered voters 7 points higher than her share of population. NW registration (61%) is 20 points higher than the national average of 45.7%. SW with 19.7% of the population has 23.4 % of registered voters or 5 points higher than her share of the population. SW registered 54% of it citizens compared to the national average of 45.7% or 10 points above national average. SS and SE have the lowest registration percentage except for NE and considerably lower than their share of the population. Compared with other data from the Nigerian government the oddity of the registration exercises become more apparent. Take a look at college enrollment table. The 2 zones with the highest percentage of college youths (SE 34% of all Nigerian college students and SS 25%) have the lowest number of registered voters. In other words college education is an impediment to participation in politics or access to political information. In no other place in the world has this phenomenon been observed. NW with a mere 5.3% of college enrollment has almost a 2:1advantage over SS in registration 61%:38%. Their youth have more access to political information than SS or are more politically aware. NC which has the highest level of college education in the North has the lowest level of registration for this election. This is just a one minute analysis of the published results. We shall look at the details as the registration exercise results are published. The State numbers would highlight where the most fraud was compiled as would city and constituency reports. Areas of further research: Comparison with prior registrations Comparison with the prior voting numbers The state registration currently with the amended voter registration in the rerun elections in Anambra, Ekiti and other states. Tax collection from the states such as number of payee Mr. Elombah and his Igbo compatriots would serve Nigeria better by purring into the statistics and proving them fraudulent. It will be much better than throwing up hands and saying that: "Ndiigbo nwere nsogbu." What Ndiigbo nwere is opportunity to unmask fraudulent practices in Nigerian polity. One can lie with statistics but such lies are often revealed by statistics. Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba Boston, Massachusetts February 11, 2011 I posted the same info on an Igbo Forum on facebook. Let me share a sample of their interesting responses: Ifedigbo Nze Sylva: Truth is, the figures from back home will be low 'cos ndi ba anyi form the bulk of the people in all the other zones. The challenge is getting our people to leave their businesses and jobs and move home with their families to register. You are all away there was no national public holiday or anything of that sort that would have created the avenue to enable more people travel. My town Agulu for example sent out a call for families to return home with their children but reality was that not too many could. I was home accidentally during that period and the corp members where doing next to nothing cos no new person was turning up. Moreover, the thought of having to repeat such trip during the elections days 'cos you can only vote where you registered must have discouraged many. The low figure is sad but it is a sad reality. Emeka Nwosu response: The question you are asking will not undo the damage that has been done. The data in this case as in the last census did not make provision for tribe or state of origin or even religion for obvious reasons. If such data is provided for, of course the true picture on the demographic composition of Nigeria will emerge. Some anti-Igbo forces are mortally afraid of that fact. And that is why they have continued to play down such vital factors down. Inno Uzuh @Elomba perspective: I truly feel your pain concerning the low voter registration recorded in igbo land. The truth is that a majority of our igbo men and women are domiciled outside igbo land. It's simple socioeconomic reality. That was why most people insisted that state of origin should be included in the census data in order to truly get a picture of the ethnic population of the constitution of nigeria. Of course this suggestion was short down by the powers that be for a purpose. Truth is..when the votes for the presidential elections are counted, believe me , the effect of our population will be felt. Joy Ogbechi Interesting statistics: Where did the north west get their voters from? In any event, Indigbo are dispersed all over Nigeria... mainly in North and South West zones. Very few would have travelled home to register. Simple me, but could this have added to the problem? Agumba Law: Let other tribes not gloat at the registration figures. 40% of Lagos Residents are Ndigbo..ditto in Kano, Jos and other places...No matter where they are domiciled, on election day,Ndigbo could still vote their interests.             Wale  Ade Sanya  MBA. 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